Key Takeaways 85% confidence
- The IEA's Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 narrows its projected 2035 copper supply deficit to about 25%, down from about 30% a year earlier.
- The Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia are projected to add almost 650,000 tonnes of new copper supply by 2035, the single biggest driver of the improved outlook.
- Zambia produced 890,346 tonnes of copper in 2025, up about 8% from 2024, but still short of the government's one-million-tonne goal; its longer-term target of 3 million tonnes by 2031 would require roughly 22% annual growth for six straight years.
- More than $10 billion has entered or been committed to Zambia's mining sector since its 2021 election, funding projects including Barrick Mining Corporation's $2 billion Lumwana expansion, First Quantum Minerals' $1.25 billion Kansanshi S3 expansion and KoBold Metals' new $2.3-2.5 billion Mingomba mine.
- Zambia has paired the investment wave with a 10% export duty on copper concentrate and rising local-content quotas, part of a broader push across the DRC, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and South Africa to capture more processing value onshore.
- Global average copper ore grades have fallen about 40% since 1991, and capital costs for expanding existing mines have risen 65% since 2020 — structural headwinds behind why a deficit persists even as new supply comes online.
The International Energy Agency now expects the DR Congo and Zambia to add almost 650,000 tonnes of new copper supply by 2035, narrowing its projected global deficit from 30% to 25%.
Analysis 82% confidence
The International Energy Agency's Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 has quietly revised one of the more closely watched numbers in industrial metals: the projected shortfall in primary copper supply by 2035. A year ago, the agency put that gap at around 30% of expected demand under current policy settings. In this year's report, it has narrowed to about 25% — and the agency credits almost all of the improvement to two countries, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia, which are together projected to add nearly 650,000 tonnes of new copper supply by 2035 beyond what last year's outlook assumed.
In the DRC, the upgrade comes mostly from revised production forecasts for oxide and malachite-rich copper ores, backed heavily by Chinese capital, alongside a capacity expansion at the Kisanfu mine. Kisanfu is run by China's CMOC Group, a Henan-headquartered miner that ranks among the world's largest cobalt producers and holds Kisanfu as a joint copper-cobalt deposit. That pairing matters beyond ownership: roughly 45% of the DRC's copper output depends on acid-based hydrometallurgical leaching, a processing method where sulphuric acid makes up close to a fifth of production costs. Growing DRC copper supply, in other words, comes with a real and specific input dependency that a simple tonnage forecast doesn't capture.
Zambia's contribution is more visible at the company level. The country produced 890,346 tonnes of copper in 2025, about 8% more than the year before, though still short of the government's stated one-million-tonne goal. Lusaka's longer-term ambition — 3 million tonnes a year by 2031 — would require roughly 22% annual growth for six consecutive years, a pace well above what the sector has managed recently. What's funding the push is real, though: more than $10 billion has entered or been committed to Zambia's mining sector since the country's 2021 election. Canada's Barrick Mining Corporation, renamed from Barrick Gold Corporation in 2025 to reflect its shift toward gold-and-copper production, is spending $2 billion to roughly double output at its Lumwana mine to around 240,000 tonnes. First Quantum Minerals, also Canadian, commissioned its own $1.25 billion Kansanshi S3 expansion in 2025. And KoBold Metals — a Silicon Valley-based exploration company backed by Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos and mining major BHP — broke ground this year on the $2.3-2.5 billion Mingomba mine, targeting roughly 300,000 tonnes of annual output by the early 2030s.
None of that capital is arriving without conditions attached. Zambia has layered a 10% export duty on copper concentrate onto the investment wave, explicitly designed to push processing onshore rather than let raw concentrate leave the country — though a temporary waiver covering 271,742 tonnes runs through the end of September 2026. New local-content rules require mining companies to source at least 20% of qualifying annual procurement from Zambian companies now, rising to 40% within five years. Zambia isn't alone in that instinct: the DRC, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and South Africa have all used trade policy as a deliberate value-capture lever within the same year, with Mozambique's June 2026 measures mandating local processing and directing 10% of mining revenue to local communities.
None of this closes the underlying gap, though — it only narrows it. Global average copper ore grades have fallen roughly 40% since 1991, and the capital intensity of expanding existing, or brownfield, mines has jumped 65% since 2020, both of which make each incremental tonne of new supply more expensive to bring online. The IEA still estimates roughly $310 billion of copper-specific investment is needed through 2040, against global refined demand that's projected to climb from about 27 million tonnes in 2024 to 33 million tonnes by 2035 and 37 million tonnes by 2050. For buyers pricing in copper's cost over the next decade — including Indian manufacturers and infrastructure builders who depend on imported and domestically refined copper alike — the message from this year's outlook isn't that the supply crunch is over. It's that Africa, more than any other region, is where the next wave of relief is most likely to come from, provided the financing, the processing bottlenecks and the ore-chemistry challenges specific to the DRC and Zambia don't get in the way.
Why This Matters 75% confidence
A shrinking supply deficit doesn't guarantee cheaper copper, but it does change the trajectory buyers should expect. Every additional tonne DR Congo and Zambia bring online between now and 2035 is a tonne the rest of the world doesn't have to source from higher-cost greenfield projects elsewhere, at a moment when global refined demand is still climbing toward an estimated 37 million tonnes by 2050. For Indian manufacturers, EV and electronics makers and infrastructure developers who rely on a mix of imported and domestically processed copper, that makes the pace of African mine construction — and the beneficiation policies now attached to it — a genuine input into how tight or loose the global market feels over the next decade, even though none of it moves today's spot price directly.
Price Impact
This is a structural, multi-year supply-outlook revision, not a single price-moving event. Almost 650,000 tonnes of new DRC and Zambia supply by 2035 is an incrementally bearish signal for the medium-term deficit narrative, but the IEA still projects a 25% shortfall against rising demand, and structural headwinds — a 40% fall in ore grades since 1991 and a 65% rise in brownfield capital intensity since 2020 — mean the underlying tightness behind 2026's record copper prices isn't resolved, just partially offset.
Market Snapshot Computed live
Based on metalscost.com's own tracked India reference price as of 2026-08-25 (current). Volume and open interest aren't tracked by this site and are intentionally left blank rather than estimated.
Technical Analysis Computed live
Price is trading above both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bullish alignment.
Breakout probability: Low — price is trading mid-range.
Fundamental Analysis
Demand Drivers 78% confidence
Global refined copper demand is projected to climb from about 27 million tonnes in 2024 to 33 million tonnes by 2035 and 37 million tonnes by 2050, growth the IEA's Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 ties directly to the clean-energy and digital buildout.
Supply Drivers 85% confidence
The DRC and Zambia are together projected to add almost 650,000 tonnes of new copper supply by 2035, the largest single driver behind the IEA narrowing its 2035 deficit forecast from about 30% to about 25% — anchored by the Kisanfu mine (CMOC Group, DRC), the Lumwana expansion (Barrick Mining Corporation, Zambia), the already-commissioned Kansanshi S3 expansion (First Quantum Minerals, Zambia) and the new Mingomba project (KoBold Metals, Zambia).
Government Policies 75% confidence
Zambia now requires mining companies to source at least 20% of qualifying annual procurement from local Zambian companies, rising to 40% within five years, while Mozambique's June 2026 measures mandate local mineral processing and direct 10% of mining revenue to local communities — part of a wider pattern of the DRC, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and South Africa all using trade policy as a value-capture lever in the same year.
Trade Tariffs 78% confidence
Zambia has imposed a 10% export duty on copper concentrate to encourage domestic processing, with a temporary waiver covering 271,742 tonnes of concentrate running through September 30, 2026.
Geopolitical Risks 72% confidence
Much of the DRC's upgraded copper-supply forecast rests on Chinese capital backing higher oxide-ore production, and China's CMOC Group directly operates the Kisanfu copper-cobalt project, concentrating a meaningful share of the region's supply growth in Chinese-linked capital and ownership.
Mining Production 82% confidence
Zambia produced 890,346 tonnes of copper in 2025, up about 8% from 2024 but short of the government's one-million-tonne goal; its stated target of 3 million tonnes a year by 2031 would require roughly 22% annual growth for six consecutive years.
Refinery Output 74% confidence
Roughly 45% of the DRC's copper production depends on acid-based hydrometallurgical leaching, with sulphuric acid accounting for close to a fifth of production costs — a processing-input dependency distinct from the mining-supply story itself.
Global Consumption 78% confidence
Global refined copper demand is projected to rise from about 27 million tonnes in 2024 to 33 million tonnes by 2035 and 37 million tonnes by 2050.
Country Impact 78% confidence
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Republic of Congo | High | The DRC is projected, together with Zambia, to add almost 650,000 tonnes of new copper supply by 2035, driven by higher forecasts for oxide and malachite-rich ore backed by Chinese investment and expansion at CMOC Group's Kisanfu mine. — About 45% of the DRC's copper production depends on acid-based hydrometallurgical leaching, with sulphuric acid making up roughly a fifth of production costs. |
| Zambia | High | Zambia produced 890,346 tonnes of copper in 2025, up about 8% from 2024, and more than $10 billion has entered or been committed to its mining sector since the 2021 election. — The government's own target of 3 million tonnes a year by 2031 would require roughly 22% annual growth for six straight years. |
| China | Medium | Chinese investment underpins much of the DRC's upgraded oxide-ore production forecast, and China's CMOC Group operates the Kisanfu copper-cobalt project central to that growth. — CMOC Group is headquartered in Henan province and ranks among the world's largest cobalt producers alongside its copper output. |
| Canada | Medium | Two of the largest Zambian copper expansions driving the region's improved supply outlook are led by Canadian miners — Barrick Mining Corporation's Lumwana and First Quantum Minerals' Kansanshi. — Barrick is spending $2 billion to roughly double Lumwana's output to about 240,000 tonnes, while First Quantum already commissioned its $1.25 billion Kansanshi S3 expansion in 2025. |
Industry Impact 68% confidence
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Mining | Positive | New project commitments across Zambia and the DRC — Lumwana, Kansanshi S3, Mingomba and Kisanfu — represent billions of dollars of fresh capital deployed into African copper capacity. |
| Renewable Energy | Neutral | Eased, but not closed, supply tightness offers modest medium-term relief for copper-intensive clean-energy buildout, though global refined demand is still projected to climb from 27 million tonnes in 2024 to 37 million tonnes by 2050. |
Timeline
2021-01-01: Zambia holds a general election; more than $10 billion has since entered or been committed to the country's mining sector.
2025-05-09: Barrick Gold Corporation completes its rename to Barrick Mining Corporation, reflecting a shift toward combined gold-and-copper production.
2025-08-19: First Quantum Minerals commissions its $1.25 billion Kansanshi S3 copper expansion in Zambia.
2025-09-01: The Democratic Republic of Congo's export quota capping cobalt shipments at 96,600 tonnes takes effect.
2026-04-30: KoBold Metals breaks ground on its $2.3-2.5 billion Mingomba copper mine in Zambia.
2026-06-01: Mozambique introduces measures mandating local mineral processing and directing 10% of mining revenue to local communities.
2026-08-19: Coverage of the IEA's Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 highlights the DRC and Zambia narrowing the projected 2035 global copper supply deficit to about 25%, down from about 30% a year earlier.
Market Sentiment
Bullish Factors 76% confidence
- Even after the improvement, the IEA still projects a 25% primary copper supply deficit by 2035 — new mine supply is narrowing the gap, not closing it.
- Global refined copper demand is still projected to climb from about 27 million tonnes in 2024 to 33 million tonnes by 2035 and 37 million tonnes by 2050, so a shrinking deficit is still a deficit against rising demand.
- Structural mining headwinds — ore grades down about 40% since 1991 and brownfield capital intensity up 65% since 2020 — make it harder and costlier to keep adding supply at the current pace.
- Reaching Zambia's own 3-million-tonne-by-2031 target would require sustaining roughly 22% annual growth for six straight years, well above the 8% increase the country posted in 2025, so the newly projected supply addition could still fall short of official ambitions.
Bearish Factors 78% confidence
- The DRC and Zambia are together projected to add almost 650,000 tonnes of new copper supply by 2035 beyond what was assumed a year ago — the single biggest driver behind the IEA narrowing its 2035 deficit forecast from about 30% to about 25%.
- More than $10 billion has flowed into or been committed to Zambia's mining sector since the 2021 election, funding concrete new capacity: Barrick Mining Corporation's $2 billion Lumwana expansion, First Quantum Minerals' already-commissioned $1.25 billion Kansanshi S3 expansion, and KoBold Metals' new $2.3-2.5 billion Mingomba project.
- The DRC's own oxide and malachite-ore production forecasts have been revised higher on the back of Chinese investment, adding supply without waiting on new discoveries.
Alternative Scenarios 65% confidence
- Zambia's beneficiation push — the 10% concentrate export duty and rising local-content quotas — could slow how quickly new mine output reaches export markets even as headline tonnage grows, if domestic processing capacity doesn't keep pace with mining capacity.
- Roughly 45% of the DRC's copper production depends on acid-based hydrometallurgical leaching, with sulphuric acid making up about a fifth of production costs — a cost input vulnerable to its own supply disruptions that could complicate the higher DRC output the IEA is now forecasting.
- If brownfield capital intensity keeps rising as it has since 2020, some of the newly announced Zambian and Congolese expansions could face the kind of delays and cost overruns that have already hit major copper projects elsewhere.
Who Benefits, Who Loses
| Party | Stance | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Zambian and Congolese state mining stakeholders | Bullish | New mine capacity, export duties and local-content rules are structured to capture more mining value domestically for governments and local suppliers. |
| Global copper-consuming manufacturers | Bullish | New African supply narrows, though doesn't close, the projected 2035 deficit, easing some of the raw-material cost pressure buyers in EVs, grid equipment and electronics would otherwise face. |
| Barrick Mining Corporation, First Quantum Minerals and KoBold Metals | Bullish | Each is committing multi-billion-dollar capital to expand in Zambia's Copperbelt, positioning them to capture rising future copper output as their projects reach production between 2028 and the early 2030s. |
| Smaller Zambian and Congolese domestic suppliers | Bearish | Zambia's local-content rules require mining companies to source at least 20% of qualifying procurement locally now, rising to 40% within five years — thresholds smaller domestic firms may struggle to meet at that pace. |
| Higher-cost copper projects outside Africa | Bearish | As lower-cost African oxide and brownfield expansions add supply, they compete for the same finite investment capital as pricier greenfield projects elsewhere, at a time when brownfield capital intensity has already risen 65% since 2020. |
Investor Watchlist 80% confidence
Educational items to monitor — not investment advice.
- Zambia's copper output through 2026-2027 against its 890,346-tonne 2025 base and stated 3-million-tonne 2031 target.
- Commissioning timelines for the Lumwana expansion (targeted for first production in 2028), Kansanshi S3 (already commissioned in 2025) and Mingomba (early 2030s target).
- Whether Zambia's waiver on its 10% copper-concentrate export duty, covering 271,742 tonnes, is extended or allowed to lapse after September 30, 2026.
- The IEA's next Global Critical Minerals Outlook update, for whether the 2035 copper deficit forecast narrows further or reverses.
- The DRC's cobalt export quota, capped at 96,600 tonnes from September 2025, as a signal of how the DRC balances copper and cobalt output at joint deposits like Kisanfu.
Price Risks 72% confidence
- The still-projected 25% supply deficit by 2035 could keep upward pressure on copper prices even as new African supply comes online, particularly if any of the announced Zambian or Congolese projects slip on the kind of cost overruns and delays that have hit other major copper developments.
- Zambia's rising local-content and export-duty requirements could raise producers' costs or slow the flow of concentrate to export markets if compliance proves difficult.
- Continued reliance on acid-based leaching for roughly 45% of the DRC's copper output ties a meaningful share of supply to sulphuric acid availability and cost, a real point of fragility in the processing chain.
Historical Comparison
This year's IEA Outlook vs. last year's: The projected 2035 global copper supply deficit narrowed from about 30% in last year's Outlook to about 25% this year, with the DRC and Zambia accounting for most of the improvement.
2020-2026: The capital intensity of expanding existing, or brownfield, copper mines has risen about 65% since 2020, even as global average ore grades have fallen roughly 40% since 1991.
