A top European advisor says the US struck more critical minerals deals in 18 months than the EU managed in a decade, as Washington's $12 billion stockpile outpaces Brussels's stalled permitting.
At a glance
- A European advisor says the US signed more critical minerals deals in the past 18 months than the EU managed in the past decade.
- The EU was dropped from the shortlist and lost a Brazilian critical minerals deal after the US offered direct funding for the project.
- The US's "Project Vault" stockpile has $12 billion behind it — $1.67 billion in private capital plus a $10 billion Export-Import Bank loan — to buy and hold gallium, cobalt, lithium and rare earth elements for manufacturers.
- The US Department of Energy separately awarded $500 million to seven critical mineral and battery supply chain projects on August 20, 2026.
What happened
Europe just lost a fight for critical minerals in Brazil to Washington, and the loss wasn't close. When the Trump administration "put money on the table" for a strategic minerals project there, the European Union (EU) was dropped from the shortlist entirely, according to an advisor who works directly on European mineral projects. The same advisor put a number on the wider gap: in eighteen months, the United States has struck more critical minerals deals than the EU managed in the past decade. The disparity is becoming a defining feature of the global race to reduce dependence on China, which still processes an estimated 85% of the world's rare earth elements. The US has moved with a $12 billion government stockpile launched in February 2026, direct investment exceeding $1 billion across Latin American mining projects since January 2025, and a fresh $500 million round of domestic funding announced August 20. The EU, meanwhile, is still waiting for its flagship strategic lithium project in Serbia to restart after it was mothballed over a stalled permit.
The details
The clearest evidence of the gap is a single lost deal. When Washington offered direct funding for a strategic minerals project in Brazil, the EU was pushed off the shortlist entirely — a country the bloc had been courting fell to a faster, better-financed American bid. An advisor who works on European mineral projects framed the pattern bluntly: the US has closed more critical minerals deals in the past 18 months than the EU closed in the previous ten years. Speed, in this business, decides who gets first call on a deposit and who doesn't.
That speed has a specific mechanism behind it. "Project Vault," launched by the Trump administration in February 2026, combines $1.67 billion in private capital with a $10 billion loan from the US Export-Import Bank to procure and stockpile gallium, cobalt, lithium, rare earth elements and other strategic materials on behalf of manufacturers reported to include General Motors and Boeing. Layered on top of that is more than $1 billion in direct US investment across Latin American mining projects since January 2025, plus a separate $500 million the Department of Energy awarded on August 20, 2026 to seven domestic critical-mineral and battery supply chain projects. Framing critical minerals access as a matter of national security lets Washington write checks without waiting for private capital to price the risk on its own.
Europe built a comparable-sounding tool and still isn't keeping pace. The EU's Critical Raw Materials Act has designated 60 "strategic projects" — 47 announced in March 2025, plus 13 more outside the EU that June — worth an estimated €22.5 billion, with permitting for extraction projects capped at 27 months. On paper, that rivals anything Washington has built. In practice, Rio Tinto's Jadar project in Serbia, the only non-EU site on that strategic list and one designed to produce up to 58,000 tonnes a year of battery-grade lithium carbonate, has sat in care and maintenance since November 2025. Rio Tinto's own explanation was a "lack of progress in permitting" after years of loud, organized local opposition. A legal cap on approval time means little if the underlying environmental review and community pushback never move. Bernd Schaefer, chief executive of the EU-backed EIT RawMaterials network, put it as plainly as an industry executive is likely to: Americans "take an idea and they run with it," while "we Europeans hesitate, over-administrate, talk and lose time."
The reason either side is racing at all is China, which still processes an estimated 85% of the world's rare earth elements — a dominance built over decades of state-backed investment in mining and, more decisively, downstream refining and magnet-making, the exact stage where both Project Vault and the Critical Raw Materials Act are trying to build capacity from a standing start. The risk for Brussels is that closing one dependency opens another: if Europe can't move fast enough to build its own alternative supply, it ends up leaning on whatever the US controls instead of diversifying away from single-supplier risk altogether.
For metals markets, the immediate effect is more structural than a single day's price move. A government stockpile that's actively buying gallium, cobalt, lithium and rare earths pulls material away from the open market, while a stalled 58,000-tonne-a-year lithium project is supply that simply isn't showing up on schedule — both lean toward tighter near-term availability. Working against that, the same investment wave on both sides of the Atlantic is aimed at bringing new mines and processing plants online over the next several years, which would eventually add supply back. Which force dominates likely depends on how quickly Europe can turn its 27-month permitting promise into projects that actually reach production, rather than a second Jadar.
Why it matters
This isn't just a Washington-versus-Brussels story. Every economy trying to build electric vehicles, batteries, electronics or defense hardware without relying on Chinese-controlled supply chains is watching which approach — fast, government-backed dealmaking or a rules-based permitting framework — actually delivers usable mines and processing plants. For MetalsCost.com readers tracking lithium, cobalt and rare earth prices, the practical takeaway is that Western supply diversification is proving slower and more uneven than either government's own targets suggest, which keeps a structural floor under prices for materials the market still can't easily source outside China.
Our read
Outlook: bullish. This is a structural, geopolitical story rather than a single-day price mover. It leans mildly bullish for rare earths, lithium and cobalt because a $12 billion US stockpile is actively pulling material toward government reserves and Europe's flagship overseas lithium project remains offline, both tightening near-term availability. That's partly offset by the fact that the same investment wave on both sides of the Atlantic is aimed at eventually growing supply, which caps how far the effect can run without a fresh trigger such as a Chinese export restriction.
What to watch
- Whether the EU issues new Critical Raw Materials Act funding or permitting reforms to close the deal-making gap with the US.
- Any sign of renewed activity at Rio Tinto's mothballed Jadar lithium project in Serbia.
- Further Project Vault procurement announcements and their effect on minerals available to the open market.
- Whether Brazil moves toward an exclusive minerals agreement with the US or continues balancing bids from Washington and Beijing.
For information only, not investment advice.
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Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2025-01-20: The Trump administration begins a critical minerals investment push, ultimately putting more than $1 billion into Latin American projects.
- 2025-03-25: The European Commission announces 47 Critical Raw Materials Act "strategic projects" inside the EU.
- 2025-06: The Commission adds 13 more strategic projects located outside the EU, including Rio Tinto's Jadar lithium project in Serbia, bringing the total to 60.
- 2025-11-17: Rio Tinto places the Jadar lithium project into care and maintenance, citing a lack of progress in permitting.
- 2026-02-02: The Trump administration launches "Project Vault," a $12 billion critical minerals stockpile combining $1.67 billion in private capital with a $10 billion Export-Import Bank loan.
- 2026-08-20: The US Department of Energy awards $500 million to seven critical mineral and battery supply chain projects.
- 2026-08-24: OilPrice.com reports the US has pulled decisively ahead of Europe in the critical minerals race, citing the lost Brazilian deal and a European advisor's deal-pace comparison.
Demand Drivers
Rare earths, lithium and cobalt underpin the electric vehicle, battery, electronics and defense-manufacturing supply chains that both Washington and Brussels are trying to secure. The Trump administration has framed critical minerals access specifically as a matter of national security because of their role in electronics and defense hardware, and Project Vault's manufacturer partners are reported to include companies like General Motors and Boeing — firms that need a reliable, non-Chinese source of these inputs.
Supply Drivers
Both the US and EU are racing to build critical minerals supply chains outside China, which still processes an estimated 85% of the world's rare earths. Washington has moved through direct deal-making and investment — more than $1 billion into Latin American projects since January 2025 — while the EU has relied on a slower, rules-based approach built around its Critical Raw Materials Act. The gap between the two approaches is now showing up in results: the EU lost a Brazilian minerals project to a US bid, and its flagship non-EU strategic lithium project remains stalled.
Inventory Drivers
The US government's "Project Vault" initiative, launched in February 2026 with $12 billion — $1.67 billion in private capital plus a $10 billion US Export-Import Bank loan — is designed to procure and stockpile gallium, cobalt, lithium, rare earth elements and other strategic materials on behalf of manufacturers, effectively building a buffer inventory the EU has no direct equivalent for.
Government Policies
The EU's Critical Raw Materials Act has designated 60 "strategic projects" — 47 announced in March 2025 and 13 more outside the EU that June — with a combined estimated capital investment of €22.5 billion and streamlined permitting meant to cap extraction-project approval at 27 months. The US Department of Energy separately awarded $500 million on August 20, 2026 to seven domestic critical mineral and battery supply chain projects, its third funding round under the Battery Materials Processing and Battery Manufacturing and Recycling programs.
Geopolitical Risks
An advisor working on European critical minerals projects said the US has struck more deals in 18 months than the EU managed in the past decade, and Bernd Schaefer, chief executive of the EU-backed EIT RawMaterials network, said Europeans "hesitate, over-administrate, talk and lose time" compared with Americans who "take an idea and they run with it." The risk is that Europe ends up trading its dependence on China for a new dependence on the United States rather than building genuine supply diversification.
Mining Production
Rio Tinto's Jadar project in Serbia — the only non-EU project on the EU's strategic lithium and boron list — was meant to produce up to 58,000 tonnes of battery-grade lithium carbonate a year. The company placed it into care and maintenance in November 2025, citing a "lack of progress in permitting" after years of local opposition, leaving the EU's one flagship overseas lithium source offline indefinitely.
What could lift prices
- The US's Project Vault is actively procuring and stockpiling gallium, cobalt, lithium and rare earths for manufacturers, pulling material toward government-held reserves rather than the open market.
- Europe's flagship non-EU strategic lithium source, Rio Tinto's 58,000-tonne-a-year Jadar project, remains mothballed, meaning a planned addition to global lithium supply isn't materializing on schedule.
- Sustained, competitive government-backed buying — the US's $1 billion-plus Latin America push and its Brazil deal win — signals durable institutional demand for critical minerals rather than a short-lived spike.
What could weigh on prices
- Both the US and EU are ultimately investing to expand future supply — the EU's 60 strategic projects alone represent an estimated €22.5 billion of planned capacity — which would ease scarcity once projects reach production.
- The DOE's $500 million funding round and similar programs are aimed at bringing new domestic processing capacity online, a longer-term supply-side offset to near-term stockpiling.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| United States | High | Directly running the $12 billion Project Vault stockpile and out-competing Europe on deal speed. |
| China | Medium | Remains the dominant incumbent supplier both blocs are trying to reduce dependence on. |
| Serbia | Medium | Hosts the EU's only non-EU strategic lithium project, now stalled. |
| Brazil | Medium | The site of a specific deal the US won over the EU. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Mining | Positive | US government-backed deal-making and stockpiling are lowering financing risk and accelerating capital flow into new mining and processing projects outside China. |
| Battery Manufacturing | Positive | Project Vault's stockpile and the DOE's $500 million funding round both aim to secure battery-grade lithium, cobalt and rare earth supply for US manufacturers. |
| Defense | Positive | The Trump administration has framed critical minerals access explicitly as a national security priority given their use in defense electronics. |
Who gains, who loses
- US-aligned mining and minerals developers in Latin America: Recipients of over $1 billion in direct US investment and financing since January 2025, plus preferential access to offtake agreements under Project Vault.
- Project Vault's manufacturer partners: Companies drawing on the $12 billion stockpile, reported to include General Motors and Boeing, gain a buffer against future supply disruption.
- European manufacturers reliant on imported critical minerals: Continue facing supply uncertainty as the EU's own strategic projects, including its only non-EU lithium source, fall behind schedule.
- Serbian mining development tied to the Jadar project: The project has sat in care and maintenance since November 2025 with no clear restart timeline, following years of local opposition and permitting delays.
Other ways this could play out
- The EU could use its 27-month permitting cap more aggressively on its remaining strategic projects, narrowing the deal-making gap with Washington over the next few years.
- Escalating US-EU competition for the same deposits, as seen in Brazil, could raise acquisition costs for both sides without proportionally increasing total global supply.
- A fresh Chinese export restriction, rather than either bloc's own investment pace, could end up being the more immediate driver of critical minerals prices.
Price risks
- Government stockpiling through Project Vault could distort price signals for gallium, cobalt, lithium and rare earths relative to underlying open-market supply and demand.
- Continued EU permitting delays could keep global supply diversification away from China limited, leaving prices more exposed to any future Chinese export restriction.
Historical comparison
- China's decades-long rare earth build-out: China still processes an estimated 85% of the world's rare earth elements, a dominance built over decades of state-backed investment in mining and, especially, downstream refining and magnet production — the same refining capacity gap both Project Vault and the EU's Critical Raw Materials Act are now racing to close from a standing start.
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
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