The Core Rule: Never Invent a Number
MetalsCost Metal DNA™ scores are analytical indicators built from structured market, supply and demand data. They are not investment ratings, price targets, or a recommendation to buy or sell any commodity. Where reliable data doesn't exist for a metal or a dimension, this site shows "Not yet scored" — never a placeholder number, a random value, or a 0 standing in for missing data.
The Dimensions
Price Momentum
Computed from the 30-day price change already stored in this site's own price history: score = 50 + (30-day % change × 2), clamped to 0–100. A metal flat over 30 days scores 50; every 1% of 30-day move shifts the score 2 points either way.
Price Volatility
The standard deviation of daily % price changes over the last 10 trading days, scaled ×20 and clamped to 0–100. A purely descriptive measure of recent swing size, not a positive or negative signal on its own.
Geographic Concentration
The single largest producing country's share of reported global production (excluding the "Other countries" residual bucket), taken directly from the USGS-sourced figures already powering /metal-reserves. Higher = more concentrated in one country.
Supply Security
Summed reported reserves ÷ summed reported annual production, across only the countries USGS reports both figures for (same commodity, same units — never summed across commodities). Scaled: 40+ years of reserve life scores 100, scaled down linearly below that.
Demand Diversity
Manually researched from each metal's primary industry association (see each metal's Sources section) — not computed. Scored as 100 minus the largest single demand sector's share of total demand, so a metal with no single dominant buyer group scores higher than one dependent on one sector.
Coverage Today
The four data-driven dimensions above (Price Momentum, Price Volatility, Geographic Concentration, Supply Security) are computed for every metal this site already has enough underlying price or USGS-sourced reserves/production data for. Demand Diversity is currently researched and cited for Gold, Silver and Copper only — every other metal shows it as not yet scored rather than an estimate. Platinum and palladium skip Supply Security specifically, because USGS reports one combined reserve figure for both metals together rather than splitting it — see the Metal Reserves methodology for the full detail on that.
Confidence Levels
Every scored dimension carries a confidence label — High for figures computed directly from this site's own stored, verifiable data (price history, USGS production shares); Medium for figures that involve a modeling choice (e.g. a reserve-life estimate, or a manually researched demand split); there is currently no Low-confidence dimension published — a genuinely low-confidence figure is treated the same as an unscored one.
Score Bands
| Range | Label |
|---|---|
| 90–100 | Exceptional |
| 80–89 | Strong |
| 70–79 | Positive |
| 60–69 | Moderate |
| 50–59 | Neutral |
| 40–49 | Weak |
| 0–39 | Very Weak |
These labels are descriptive, not advisory — Metal DNA never uses "Buy," "Sell," or similar language.
Update Frequency
Computed dimensions refresh from live data roughly hourly (a lightweight cache, matching the pattern already used by this site's homepage dashboard). Manually researched dimensions (currently Demand Diversity) are static datasets reviewed roughly annually, the same cadence as the Metal Reserves section's own USGS import.
