Global EV battery deployment rose almost 30% to 1.2 TWh in 2025, per the IEA. Lithium demand keeps climbing despite LFP's growth, while nickel-based chemistries still lead outside China, supporting new supply projects.
At a glance
- The IEA reported that global EV battery deployment hit 1.2 TWh in 2025, up almost 30% from 2024 and about seven times the 2020 level, with over 85% going into light-duty passenger vehicles.
- LFP (lithium iron phosphate) cells passed 55% of global EV battery deployment in 2025, up from about 50% in 2024, helped by a cost advantage of more than 40% per kilowatt-hour over nickel-based NMC cells.
- Nearly 80% of batteries deployed outside China in 2025 still used nickel-containing chemistries, because LFP made up only around 10% of EV demand in the European Union versus roughly 60% of global deployment concentrated inside China.
- Canada Nickel CEO Mark Selby said nickel demand is growing more than 5% a year -- almost 200,000 additional tonnes annually -- just as Indonesia tightens export quotas, sharpening demand for supply from outside Chinese-controlled entities.
What happened
Global electric-vehicle battery deployment reached 1.2 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2025, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported, an increase of almost 30% over 2024 and roughly seven times the volume deployed in 2020. More than 85% of that capacity went into light-duty passenger EVs, while electric trucks -- a smaller but faster-growing segment -- rose to about 8% of deployment in 2025 from under 5% the year before. Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cells, which use no nickel or cobalt, accounted for more than 55% of global deployment in 2025, up from roughly 50% in 2024, and cost at least 40% less per kilowatt-hour than nickel-based nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) cells. Yet nickel-containing chemistries still powered nearly 80% of the batteries deployed outside China in 2025, according to data cited by Crux Investor, because LFP made up only about 10% of EV demand in the European Union against roughly 60% of all global deployment sitting inside China. That split is why financing is moving on both sides of the battery-materials ledger at once: Lithium Ionic Corp advanced its Bandeira spodumene project in Brazil's Minas Gerais state, while Canada Nickel Company and Lifezone Metals pushed financing and offtake work forward on nickel projects in Ontario and Tanzania aimed squarely at buyers who want supply from outside Chinese-controlled entities.
The details
Battery deployment figures rarely move the lithium and nickel markets on their own, but the shape of 2025's growth is doing more work than the headline number suggests. The IEA's tally of 1.2 TWh deployed globally last year, almost 30% above 2024 and seven times the 2020 figure, describes an industry that is still scaling fast even after several years of slowing EV sales growth in some markets. Two forces sit underneath that number and pull the battery-materials market in different directions at once.
The first is cost. LFP cells, which need no nickel or cobalt, now cost upward of 40% less per kilowatt-hour to build than nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) cells, and that gap pushed LFP past 55% of global deployment in 2025, up from about half in 2024. China's domestic EV market, which alone accounted for roughly 60% of global deployment, has driven most of that shift -- Chinese automakers and battery makers standardized on LFP years ago and continue to expand it. That ought to be bad news for nickel demand. It isn't, because of the second force: geography. LFP made up only about 10% of EV demand in the European Union in 2025, a market that still leans on nickel-based chemistries for the longer range and higher energy density NMC delivers. The result is a battery market splitting in two -- an LFP-dominated China and an NMC-leaning rest-of-world -- with nearly 80% of everything deployed outside China in 2025 still running on nickel.
That regional split collides with a supply-side squeeze. Indonesia supplies most of the world's mined nickel, and its tightening export quotas are running into demand that Canada Nickel CEO Mark Selby put at more than 5% annual growth, or almost 200,000 additional tonnes a year. "People want supply from somewhere other than Chinese-controlled entities," Selby said, describing exactly the commercial opening non-Indonesian, non-Chinese nickel projects are now chasing. Canada Nickel's Crawford project in Ontario and Lifezone Metals' Kabanga project in Tanzania -- which has already released about US$854 million of procurement contracts and is targeting a final investment decision in the first quarter of 2027 -- are both moving through financing stages built around that exact pitch: competitive costs, secured offtake buyers, and a supply chain that never touches Indonesian or Chinese ownership.
Lithium tells a quieter but related story. Prices are still down roughly 70% from their 2022 peak, even after roughly doubling from a year earlier by early 2026 -- a market still working through the oversupply that crushed prices in the first place. Even so, volume demand keeps climbing with battery deployment overall, which is why Lithium Ionic's Bandeira project in Brazil's Minas Gerais -- targeting 177,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate a year over an 18.5-year mine life -- has already locked in roughly 170,000 tonnes of annual offtake on market-linked pricing and a US$20 million prepayment facility. None of these projects are betting on a price spike. They're betting that a battery market growing at nearly 30% a year needs more tonnes of both metals regardless of which chemistry wins in any one region, and that buyers outside China will keep paying up for supply that isn't Chinese-controlled.
Why it matters
India's own EV and battery-manufacturing push sits right in the middle of this regional split. Cell makers setting up domestic production have to choose a chemistry, and that choice determines whether their raw-material dependency runs through Chinese-dominated lithium-salt refining (the LFP path) or through nickel supply chains where Indonesia's Chinese-linked ownership is now the main bottleneck (the NMC path). Neither path currently runs mostly through India-friendly, non-Chinese-controlled supply, which is exactly the gap that new projects in Brazil, Canada and Tanzania are aiming to fill over the next several years.
Our read
Outlook: bullish. Almost 30% growth in global EV battery deployment, combined with Indonesia's tightening nickel export quotas and nearly 80% non-China nickel-chemistry share, supports underlying demand for both lithium and non-Chinese-controlled nickel. Multiple projects (Bandeira, Crawford, Kabanga) are converting that demand into binding offtakes and financing, though LFP's continued cost-driven share gains and lithium's still-depressed price level relative to 2022 keep the near-term price signal moderate rather than strong.
What to watch
- Indonesian nickel export quota decisions and their effect on non-China nickel supply availability
- Final investment decision timing at Lifezone Metals' Kabanga project, currently targeted for the first quarter of 2027
- Equipment and fleet-financing progress at Canada Nickel's Crawford project, including the C$1.5 billion Komatsu fleet arrangement
- LFP adoption trends in the European Union and US, where nickel-based chemistries still dominate EV demand
For information only, not investment advice.
Lithium price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-10-03.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2025-09: Lithium Ionic completes an updated feasibility study for its Bandeira project showing 177,000 tonnes a year of spodumene concentrate production over an 18.5-year mine life.
- 2025: Global EV battery deployment reaches 1.2 TWh for the year, almost 30% above 2024 and about seven times the 2020 level, according to the IEA.
- 2027-Q1: Lifezone Metals and Canada Nickel are each targeting this quarter for a final investment decision or major equipment-financing milestone on their Kabanga and Crawford nickel projects, respectively.
Demand Drivers
Global EV battery deployment grew almost 30% in 2025 to 1.2 TWh, per the IEA, with electric trucks rising to about 8% of deployment from under 5% in 2024. Nickel demand specifically is growing more than 5% a year -- close to 200,000 additional tonnes annually, according to Canada Nickel CEO Mark Selby -- even as LFP's rise inside China pulls average chemistry mix toward less nickel-intensive cells globally.
Supply Drivers
Indonesia, the dominant source of mined nickel, is tightening export quotas just as non-China nickel demand grows, according to Canada Nickel's Selby. In response, Lifezone Metals has released about US$854 million of procurement contracts for its Kabanga project in Tanzania and drawn US$21.7 million from a Taurus financing facility plus a US$25 million equity raise, while Canada Nickel is targeting equipment and fleet-financing arrangements -- including a C$1.5 billion Komatsu fleet deal -- for its Crawford project in Ontario by the first quarter of 2027. On lithium, Lithium Ionic Corp has locked in roughly 170,000 tonnes a year of five-year offtake and a US$20 million prepayment facility for its Bandeira spodumene project in Brazil.
Geopolitical Risks
Nearly 80% of EV batteries deployed outside China in 2025 still used nickel-containing chemistries, and Indonesia -- the source of most mined nickel and closely tied to Chinese investment -- is tightening export quotas. That combination is what Canada Nickel CEO Mark Selby describes as buyers actively seeking nickel supply 'from somewhere other than Chinese-controlled entities,' framing projects in Canada and Tanzania as geopolitical alternatives rather than just new tonnes.
Mining Production
Lithium Ionic's Bandeira project in Brazil is targeting 177,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate a year (5.2% Li2O grade) over an 18.5-year mine life. Canada Nickel's Crawford project in Ontario is designed to become the Western world's largest nickel sulphide operation, and Lifezone Metals' Kabanga project in Tanzania is targeting a final investment decision in the first quarter of 2027 after releasing roughly US$854 million of procurement contracts.
Global Consumption
China accounted for roughly 60% of global EV battery deployment in 2025, against about 15% for the European Union, 10% for the US and 6% for other emerging markets, according to data cited by Crux Investor. LFP made up more than 55% of global deployment but only about 10% of EU demand, keeping nickel-based chemistries dominant outside China even as they lose share globally.
What could lift prices
- Global EV battery deployment grew almost 30% in 2025 to 1.2 TWh, seven times the 2020 level, per the IEA -- sustained volume growth that lifts demand for both lithium and nickel regardless of chemistry mix.
- Nearly 80% of batteries deployed outside China in 2025 still used nickel-containing chemistries, and Indonesia's tightening export quotas are constraining the dominant supply source just as non-China nickel demand grows over 5% a year.
- Multiple projects have reached advanced financing stages with binding offtakes and price protection: Lithium Ionic's Bandeira (Brazil), Canada Nickel's Crawford (Ontario) and Lifezone Metals' Kabanga (Tanzania, targeting a Q1 2027 final investment decision).
What could weigh on prices
- LFP's rise to more than 55% of global EV battery deployment, driven by a 40%-plus per-kilowatt-hour cost advantage over nickel-based cells, is structurally reducing nickel intensity per vehicle in China's dominant EV market.
- Lithium prices remain roughly 70% below their 2022 peak even after a partial recovery, reflecting an oversupply the market has not fully absorbed.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Indonesia | High | As the dominant source of mined nickel, Indonesia's tightening export quotas are the direct supply-side trigger buyers cite for seeking nickel from non-Chinese-controlled sources elsewhere. |
| China | High | China's roughly 60% share of global EV battery deployment and its lead in LFP adoption are reshaping the global chemistry mix, even though nickel-based cells still dominate everywhere else. |
| Brazil | Medium | Brazil's Minas Gerais state hosts Lithium Ionic's Bandeira project, one of the more advanced non-Chinese-controlled lithium supply projects moving toward construction financing. |
| Canada | Medium | Canada Nickel's Crawford project in Ontario is one of the largest nickel projects being advanced specifically to supply buyers outside Chinese-controlled nickel chains. |
| Tanzania | Medium | Lifezone Metals' Kabanga project in Tanzania is one of the most advanced non-Indonesian nickel projects working toward a final investment decision. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Electric Vehicles | Positive | Almost 30% growth in global EV battery deployment in 2025 signals continued volume expansion for automakers, even as the chemistry mix splits between cheaper LFP cells and nickel-based cells outside China. |
| Mining | Positive | Rising nickel demand colliding with tighter Indonesian export quotas, plus continued lithium volume growth, is advancing financing and offtake agreements at specific lithium and nickel projects in Brazil, Canada and Tanzania. |
Who gains, who loses
- Non-Chinese-controlled nickel and lithium developers with secured offtakes: Projects like Kabanga, Crawford and Bandeira are converting genuine demand growth and Indonesian supply constraints into binding offtake agreements and project financing.
- China's domestic LFP battery and EV supply chain: LFP's cost advantage and China's roughly 60% share of global deployment continue to reinforce a chemistry that needs no nickel or cobalt at all.
- Indonesian nickel exporters facing tighter quotas: Export restrictions limit the volume Indonesian producers can sell even as global nickel demand grows, pushing buyers toward alternative, non-Indonesian sources instead.
- Higher-cost NMC cell and nickel producers competing purely on price: LFP's more than 40% per-kilowatt-hour cost advantage keeps pressuring nickel-based cell economics in every market where LFP is a viable substitute.
Other ways this could play out
- If Indonesia's export quotas tighten further while non-China nickel demand keeps growing at over 5% a year, projects like Crawford and Kabanga could see financing move faster than their current Q1 2027 milestones.
- If LFP's cost advantage pushes adoption higher inside the European Union and US as well, the nearly 80% non-China nickel-chemistry share could erode, softening some of the urgency behind non-Chinese nickel supply projects.
Price risks
- Faster-than-expected LFP adoption outside China could reduce nickel intensity per vehicle globally, potentially softening demand growth for non-China nickel projects still in financing.
- A renewed oversupply in either lithium or nickel, given lithium's current 70% discount to its 2022 peak, could delay financing or offtake commitments at projects still working toward final investment decisions.
Historical comparison
- 2022 lithium price peak to early 2026: Lithium prices remain roughly 70% below their 2022 peak even after roughly doubling from year-earlier levels by early 2026, reflecting a market still absorbing the oversupply that drove the original crash.
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
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