Chilean miner Antofagasta lifted third-quarter copper output 7% to 151,900 tonnes, but its 2027 forecast showed little growth and it raised its cost guidance, sending its shares down as much as 7% in London.
At a glance
- Output for the first nine months is 436,900 tonnes, 8% lower than a year earlier.
- Antofagasta raised its 2026 cash cost guidance to $2.60-2.70 a pound because diesel stays expensive.
- Two unions at the Centinela mine declared a strike after the quarter ended, and talks are continuing.
Background
Antofagasta is one of Chile's largest copper miners and is listed in London. It runs four mines: Los Pelambres, Centinela, Antucoya and Zaldívar. Miners report "cash costs" per pound of copper, the day-to-day cost of producing it, and investors watch them closely because copper's price is set by the market, so costs decide the profit margin.
What happened
Antofagasta produced 151,900 tonnes of copper in the July-September quarter, up 7% from 142,000 tonnes in the second quarter, the company said on October 15. Los Pelambres drove the gain. Its output jumped 17% to 79,300 tonnes as it drew down about 7,000 tonnes of stockpiled material held back during the previous quarter.
The company kept its 2026 target of 625,000-655,000 tonnes. It also gave its first forecast for 2027: 630,000-690,000 tonnes. Shares fell as much as 7% to 3,312 pence in London on Thursday, Proactive reported.
Why investors were disappointed
The quarter came in below broker Peel Hunt's estimate of 158,000 tonnes. Its 2027 forecast of 710,000 tonnes was also above the top of Antofagasta's new range. Peel Hunt said Los Pelambres appeared to have taken longer than expected to recover from severe weather in July.
Costs are rising too. Antofagasta raised its 2026 guidance for cash costs before by-product credits to $2.60-2.70 a pound, from $2.40-2.60, because global diesel prices remain high. In the first nine months, that cost measure was 20% higher than a year earlier, at $2.81 a pound.
What comes next
Chief executive Iván Arriagada said the 2027 range reflects higher grades at Los Pelambres and lower grades at Centinela, where lower-quality ore has cut output this year. He said construction of the company's big growth projects at Centinela and Los Pelambres is in its final phases, with commissioning due to finish in 2027.
Labour is the near-term risk. After the quarter ended, two unions representing about 20% of Centinela's own workforce declared a strike. The company did not estimate any effect on output. Peel Hunt also flagged wage talks at Los Pelambres and Centinela as a risk.
Our read
Outlook: neutral. Flat growth from a major Chilean producer adds to the case for tight copper supply. One miner's guidance alone is unlikely to move global prices.
What to watch
- Whether the strike at Centinela ends quickly or starts to cut output.
- Fourth-quarter output, which must be strong for Antofagasta to reach its 2026 range.
- Antofagasta's 2027 cost and spending guidance, due with its fourth-quarter report in January 2027.
For information only, not investment advice.
Copper price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-10-16.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-10-15: Antofagasta reports Q3 output of 151,900 tonnes and 2027 guidance of 630,000-690,000 tonnes.
Supply Drivers
Lower grades at Centinela have cut Antofagasta's output 8% this year, and its 2027 range shows little growth.
Inflation
High diesel prices pushed Antofagasta to raise its cost guidance, a pressure other Chilean miners also face.
Mining Production
Los Pelambres recovered in the third quarter after July's severe weather, helped by drawing down stockpiled material.
What could lift prices
- A major Chilean producer forecasting little growth in 2027 supports the case for tight copper supply.
- A strike at Centinela could cut output further if it drags on.
What could weigh on prices
- Antofagasta's new growth projects are due to finish commissioning in 2027, adding supply later.
- Los Pelambres expects grades and throughput to rise in the fourth quarter.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Chile | Medium | All of Antofagasta's mines are in Chile, the world's biggest copper producer. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Copper Mining | Negative | Rising diesel costs and lower ore grades are squeezing margins at Chilean mines. |
Who gains, who loses
- Centinela's unions: A strike during a period of tight supply gives them bargaining power in wage talks.
- Antofagasta shareholders: The shares fell as much as 7% after the output miss and flat 2027 outlook.
Other ways this could play out
- If the Centinela strike ends quickly, Antofagasta could still reach its 2026 output range.
- If diesel prices stay high into 2027, costs could rise again when new guidance comes in January.
Price risks
- A long strike at Centinela could tighten supply more than expected.
- Weaker demand from China could outweigh any supply losses in Chile.
Technical view
Price is mixed relative to its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, showing no clear trend alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
