Codelco chairman Bernardo Fontaine said a preliminary review found about 42,100 tonnes of artificially inflated copper production in the state miner's 2024 and 2025 reports. Inventories were overstated by about 17,000 tonnes, worth $120-140 million.
At a glance
- About 24,000 tonnes of the overstatement relates to 2024 and about 18,000 tonnes to 2025, Chilean radio Cooperativa reported.
- Fontaine expects 2026 output closer to 1.2 million tonnes, and about 1.3 million tonnes a year over the following four years.
- Codelco invested $32 billion over eight years, yet annual output fell from about 1.6 million to 1.2 million tonnes, he said.
Background
Codelco is Chile's state-owned copper miner and one of the world's largest copper producers. Chile's government requested the extraordinary shareholders' meeting to assess inconsistencies in its 2024 and 2025 production reports. An earlier correction of about 27,000 tonnes covered the Chuquicamata and Ministro Hales divisions, Cooperativa reported.
What happened
Codelco chairman Bernardo Fontaine told an extraordinary shareholders' meeting on Thursday that artificially inflated production in the company's reports amounted to 42,100 tonnes, Reuters and MINING.COM reported. The figures are preliminary and still subject to audit.
About 24,000 tonnes relate to 2024 and about 18,000 tonnes to 2025, Cooperativa reported. Fontaine said inventories were also overstated by about 17,000 tonnes, equivalent to $120 million to $140 million.
Why it matters
Fontaine said recent incidents involving production figures "have affected confidence in Codelco and its reputation". Juan Carlos Guajardo of consultancy Plusmining said the case reveals weaknesses in control, traceability and operational validation.
Fontaine also set out wider problems. Codelco invested $32 billion over the past eight years, yet annual output fell from about 1.6 million tonnes to 1.2 million tonnes. Its debt rose 50% while it paid $7 billion to the state over four years, he said.
What comes next
Codelco has ordered audits and dismissed staff as it investigates. Fontaine said the board and new management are drawing up a recovery plan focused on profitability, cash flow and tighter internal controls.
He said 2026 production should be closer to 1.2 million tonnes, with about 1.3 million tonnes a year over the following four years.
Our read
Outlook: neutral. The review corrects past figures; it does not change current copper supply.
What to watch
- Results of the external audit of Codelco's 2024 and 2025 production.
- Codelco's recovery plan and its production guidance.
- Any restatement of Codelco's past financial results.
For information only, not investment advice.
Copper price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-11-06.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-11-05: Codelco's chairman reports 42,100 tonnes of inflated output at an extraordinary shareholders' meeting.
Inventory Drivers
Codelco's inventories were overstated by about 17,000 tonnes, worth $120-140 million.
Mining Production
Codelco expects output of about 1.2 million tonnes in 2026 and about 1.3 million tonnes a year after that.
What could lift prices
- Codelco expects output of only about 1.2-1.3 million tonnes a year for the next five years.
- Heavy spending has failed to lift Codelco's production.
What could weigh on prices
- The review changes past figures, not current supply.
- Codelco plans public-private partnerships to grow output.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Chile | High | Codelco is Chile's state copper miner, and its output and payments to the state have fallen. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Copper Mining | Negative | The review exposes weak controls at one of the largest copper producers. |
Who gains, who loses
- Codelco's future private partners: Codelco plans to pursue growth through public-private partnerships.
- The Chilean state: Codelco's payments to the government fell 43% over four years while its debt rose 50%.
Other ways this could play out
- If audits find larger errors, Codelco may need to restate more of its results.
- If the recovery plan works, Codelco could hold output near 1.3 million tonnes a year.
Price risks
- Further audit findings could hurt confidence in Chilean supply data.
- Weak output at Codelco keeps the copper market tight.
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
