Copper and nickel prices could double over the next decade as mine supply fails to keep up with demand from construction, electrification and the energy transition, trade credit insurer Coface says. It expects deficits averaging about 10% of demand by 2035.
At a glance
- Coface expects supply to grow just 1% a year for copper, 1.5% for nickel and 0.4% for aluminium until 2035.
- Demand is seen growing about 1.8% a year for all three metals, faster under a net-zero scenario.
- Import and export restrictions on minerals have tripled to 1,138 from 357 a decade ago.
Background
Coface is a global trade credit insurer that publishes research on industries and countries. A supply deficit means the market needs more metal than mines and recyclers produce, which tends to push prices up until demand cools or new supply arrives. New mines often take many years to permit and build.
What the report says
Copper and nickel prices could double over the next decade, driven by demand in construction, the energy transition and electrification, according to a new report by Coface. Aluminium, copper and nickel could face supply deficits averaging around 10% of demand by 2035.
Coface expects supply to rise by 1% a year for copper, 1.5% for nickel and only 0.4% for aluminium until 2035. Demand is seen growing about 1.8% a year for all three if consumption follows the pace of the past decade.
Why supply is falling behind
Under a net-zero emissions scenario, demand growth rises to about 2.2% a year for aluminium and copper and 4.5% for nickel, as data centres, electric vehicles, battery storage and grids consume more metal. New mines are taking longer to get permitted, delaying fresh supply.
Trade restrictions add to the pressure. Coface counted 1,138 import and export restrictions on minerals in force, more than triple the 357 a decade earlier. "Governments have been restricting metals trade for years, and the US measures add to that pressure," said Marcos Carias, North America economist at Coface.
What it means
Coface argues the pressure reflects structural limits that higher prices alone may not quickly solve, pointing to a prolonged bull market for industrial metals. For manufacturers, Carias said, that means planning for higher metal costs over the long term.
Forecasts this far out are uncertain. Nickel, for example, is currently in surplus, with Sumitomo Metal Mining expecting a 34,000-tonne surplus in 2027, so Coface's view depends on demand growing faster than recent supply additions.
Our read
Outlook: bullish. Coface's long-term view points to structural deficits and higher prices. It is a 2035 forecast, so it says little about near-term price moves.
What to watch
- Mine permitting times for new copper and nickel projects.
- Further trade restrictions on minerals, including US tariffs.
- Whether demand from data centres and electric vehicles keeps accelerating.
For information only, not investment advice.
Copper price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-10-24.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-10-07: Coface publishes its industrial metals outlook to 2035.
Demand Drivers
Demand is seen rising 1.8% a year, or faster under a net-zero scenario.
Supply Drivers
Coface sees copper supply growing 1% a year and nickel 1.5% until 2035.
Trade Tariffs
Mineral trade restrictions have tripled to 1,138 over a decade.
What could lift prices
- Projected deficits of around 10% of demand by 2035.
- Slow permitting delays new mine supply.
What could weigh on prices
- Nickel is currently in surplus, with a 34,000-tonne surplus expected in 2027.
- Long-range forecasts can miss shifts in technology and demand.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| United States | Medium | US tariffs have tightened metal markets, Coface says. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Copper Mining | Positive | Higher prices would reward producers that can add supply. |
| Automotive Manufacturing | Negative | Manufacturers face higher long-term metal costs. |
Who gains, who loses
- Copper and nickel miners: Structural deficits would support higher prices.
- Metal-using manufacturers: They should plan for higher metal costs over the long term, Coface says.
Other ways this could play out
- If net-zero demand materialises, deficits could be larger than Coface's base case.
- If new mines come online faster, the expected deficits could shrink.
Price risks
- Faster mine permitting would ease the expected supply gap.
- A global slowdown would cut demand growth.
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
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