COMEX silver inventory is down nearly 38% since October 2025 and outflows are reviving squeeze talk, but registered deliverable stock rose last week, unlike the 2025 squeeze.
At a glance
- More than 7 million ounces of physical silver left COMEX vaults in mid-September 2026, a 2.1% drop in total inventory in a single week.
- Total COMEX silver inventory has fallen nearly 38% since October 2025, from about 532 million ounces to 330.08 million ounces as of September 18.
- Registered (deliverable) COMEX silver stock stands at just 97.3 million ounces, against a paper-to-physical ratio of roughly 5 to 1 relative to open interest.
- Crucially, registered inventories actually increased last week rather than falling further, a key difference from the early stages of the October 2025 squeeze, when registered stock itself was shrinking alongside the broader vault outflow.
What happened
COMEX silver vaults have seen sharp physical outflows in September 2026, reviving comparisons to the delivery squeeze that pushed silver prices above $50 an ounce in October 2025, though the underlying data shows a more mixed picture than a repeat of that squeeze would suggest. More than 7 million ounces of physical silver left COMEX vaults in mid-September, a 2.1% drop in total inventory in a single week; CME data showed 6,168 September delivery notices through September 18, covering 30.84 million ounces, even as roughly 7.1 million ounces (about 223 metric tons) physically left the vaults between September 10 and 17. Total COMEX silver inventory has fallen from roughly 532 million ounces in October 2025 to 330.08 million ounces by September 18, 2026, a drop of nearly 38%, with registered deliverable stock at just 97.3 million ounces against hundreds of millions of ounces in open interest, a paper-to-physical ratio of about 5 to 1. However, registered inventories actually increased last week rather than falling, a detail that separates the current situation from the early stages of the 2025 squeeze, when registered stock itself was shrinking.
The details
The headline outflow numbers are real and substantial: total COMEX silver inventory is down nearly 38% from a year ago, and more than 7 million ounces left the vaults in a single week in mid-September. It's easy to see why that revives memories of October 2025, when a similar pattern of shrinking vault stockpiles preceded a squeeze that pushed silver above $50 an ounce. But the comparison breaks down on the one number that mattered most in that earlier episode: registered, or deliverable, inventory.
In a genuine delivery squeeze, it's specifically the registered category, silver that's been formally committed as available for delivery against futures contracts, that shrinks relative to open interest, forcing short position holders to scramble for physical metal to meet delivery obligations. That's what happened in October 2025. This time, total vault inventory is falling, largely because silver is being pulled out of the broader 'eligible' category, silver stored at COMEX but not committed for delivery, while the registered category itself actually increased last week. That's a meaningfully different dynamic: it looks more like large holders moving metal out of COMEX warehouses for their own reasons, often to meet strong physical demand elsewhere such as industrial buyers or other markets, than like a shortage of metal specifically available to satisfy delivery obligations.
None of this means the elevated paper-to-physical ratio, roughly 5 ounces of paper claims for every physical ounce of registered silver, is meaningless. That ratio describes real leverage in the futures market, and a large enough wave of delivery requests could still test it. But the specific mechanism that made 2025's squeeze a squeeze, registered stock itself running short, isn't currently repeating, which is why this is worth calling a revival of squeeze talk rather than a confirmed repeat of the squeeze itself.
Why it matters
Distinguishing genuine delivery-squeeze mechanics from a broader vault-outflow trend matters for anyone using COMEX inventory data as a signal, conflating the two can lead to reading normal physical-market flows as an imminent supply crisis when the specific registered-stock dynamic that actually drives a squeeze isn't yet present.
Our read
Outlook: neutral. Total COMEX silver outflows are real and substantial, but the key registered-inventory metric that actually drives delivery-squeeze pressure moved the opposite way last week, a genuinely mixed signal rather than a clear repeat of 2025's dynamics.
What to watch
- Whether registered (deliverable) COMEX silver inventory begins falling, the specific signal that would more closely mirror the 2025 squeeze.
- The paper-to-physical ratio and whether it widens further as open interest and registered stock evolve.
- December delivery notices and whether they show a similar pattern to September's.
- Where the silver leaving COMEX vaults is actually going, industrial demand, other physical markets, or investment buying.
For information only, not investment advice.
Silver price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-10-03.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2025-10: A COMEX silver delivery squeeze drives prices above $50 an ounce.
- 2026-09-10: The week of heaviest COMEX silver vault outflows begins, ending September 17 with about 7.1 million ounces withdrawn.
- 2026-09-18: Total COMEX silver inventory stands at 330.08 million ounces, down nearly 38% from October 2025, with registered stock at 97.3 million ounces.
Demand Drivers
Large physical withdrawals from COMEX vaults often reflect strong demand pulling silver toward industrial users or other physical markets rather than a shortage specific to futures-delivery obligations, though the specific destination of this September's outflows hasn't been confirmed.
Inventory Drivers
COMEX total silver inventory has fallen nearly 38% since October 2025, with over 7 million ounces leaving vaults in a single week in mid-September 2026. Registered (deliverable) stock stands at 97.3 million ounces, but notably increased last week even as total inventory fell, indicating the outflows are concentrated in the non-committed 'eligible' category rather than the registered category that actually drives delivery-squeeze pressure.
What could lift prices
- Total COMEX silver inventory has fallen nearly 38% in a year, a substantial physical drawdown that reflects genuine demand pulling metal out of exchange vaults.
- The paper-to-physical ratio of roughly 5 to 1 represents real leverage that could amplify a price move if delivery demands increase meaningfully.
What could weigh on prices
- Registered (deliverable) inventory actually increased last week, the opposite of the pattern that preceded the 2025 squeeze, suggesting the specific delivery-pressure mechanism isn't currently active.
- A falling total-inventory figure driven by outflows from the non-committed 'eligible' category is a different, less acute signal than a shrinking registered category.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| United States | High | COMEX is a US exchange and the specific inventory and delivery data described are all COMEX-specific. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Bullion Trading | Neutral | Large COMEX vault outflows and an elevated paper-to-physical ratio are closely watched by bullion traders as a leverage indicator, though the current pattern doesn't yet show the registered-stock shortage that would signal acute delivery pressure. |
Who gains, who loses
- Physical silver holders and buyers who acquired metal before this September's outflows: Continued vault outflows and an elevated paper-to-physical ratio support a narrative of tightening physical availability, even without a confirmed delivery squeeze.
- Traders who assume this repeats the 2025 squeeze without checking registered-inventory data: The registered-stock increase last week is a meaningful difference from the 2025 episode that a purely headline-level read of total outflows would miss.
Other ways this could play out
- If registered inventory later begins falling alongside total vault outflows, that would be a stronger signal of a genuine repeat of the 2025 squeeze dynamic.
- If the current outflows are being driven by strong industrial or investment demand outside the delivery system, silver's broader physical tightness could still support prices without a formal squeeze occurring.
- A sudden surge in delivery notices against a still-thin registered category could quickly change the picture even without total inventory falling further.
Price risks
- A shift from eligible-category outflows to registered-category declines would be a stronger bullish signal for silver if it materializes.
- A continued elevated paper-to-physical ratio leaves the market vulnerable to a rapid price move if a genuine delivery squeeze does develop later.
Historical comparison
- October 2025 COMEX silver squeeze: That episode saw registered (deliverable) inventory itself shrinking alongside total vault outflows, eventually pushing silver above $50 an ounce. The current September 2026 outflow is comparable in scale on a total-inventory basis, but registered stock rose last week rather than falling, a meaningful mechanical difference.
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
Related
United States