Copper on the London Metal Exchange fell 1.8% on Thursday to its lowest level since mid-September. More metal is arriving in LME warehouses, mostly in the US, easing fears of a shortage, while a slide in stock markets weighed on all industrial metals.
At a glance
- Three-month LME copper traded at $14,089 a tonne, after touching $14,031 during the session.
- LME copper inventories have risen for four days in a row to 272,950 tonnes, the most since July 24.
- About 62% of all copper held in LME warehouses is now in the United States.
Background
Copper trades on two main exchanges: the London Metal Exchange (LME) and COMEX in New York. This year traders shipped large amounts of copper into the US, because COMEX prices ran above LME prices on fears of US import tariffs. When the price gap reverses, it pays to deliver that metal into LME warehouses instead, which adds to the inventories the exchange reports.
What happened
Benchmark three-month copper on the LME was down 1.8% at $14,089 a tonne at 1600 GMT on Thursday, Reuters reported. It touched $14,031 during the session, its weakest since September 15.
Copper inventories in LME warehouses rose for a fourth straight day after 29,050 tonnes arrived on Wednesday, mainly in New Orleans. Total inventories reached 272,950 tonnes, the highest since July 24.
Why metal is flowing into the LME
For much of the year, COMEX copper traded above LME prices, so traders sent metal to the US. That premium is now shrinking as delivery dates approach, and near-term COMEX prices have slipped below the LME, said Alastair Munro, senior metals strategist at broker Marex. As a result, copper already in the US is being delivered into LME warehouses there.
The market still shows signs of tightness. Cash copper on the LME traded $116 a tonne above the three-month price, a pattern called backwardation that usually signals strong demand for metal right away.
What it means
The rise in inventories has calmed some supply fears, but much of the new metal is in the US rather than in Asia or Europe, where buyers expect shortages. A stock-market sell-off, driven by doubts about the AI boom, also hit other metals. Aluminium fell 1% to $3,010 a tonne, zinc lost 2.2% to $3,670 and tin dropped 1.7% to $50,330.
Our read
Outlook: bearish. Rising LME inventories and a stock-market sell-off are pushing copper lower, though backwardation shows near-term supply is still tight.
What to watch
- Whether more US-held copper moves into LME warehouses as COMEX contracts near delivery.
- The gap between cash and three-month LME prices, a sign of how tight supply is.
- Stock-market swings tied to the AI sector, which are weighing on industrial metals.
For information only, not investment advice.
Copper price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-11-07.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-10-21: 29,050 tonnes of copper arrive in LME warehouses, mainly in New Orleans.
- 2026-10-22: LME copper falls 1.8% to $14,089 a tonne, its lowest since September 15.
Inventory Drivers
LME copper inventories rose for four days to 272,950 tonnes as US-held metal was delivered into the exchange.
Trade Tariffs
US tariff fears drew copper into COMEX this year; a shrinking COMEX premium is now pushing it back to the LME.
Global Consumption
Doubts about the AI investment boom hit stock markets and weighed on demand expectations for industrial metals.
What could lift prices
- LME cash copper trades $116 above the three-month price, showing near-term tightness.
- Most new LME stock is in the US, while buyers elsewhere still expect regional shortages.
What could weigh on prices
- LME inventories are at their highest since late July and still rising.
- A stock-market sell-off over AI doubts is hurting risk appetite across industrial metals.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| United States | High | About 62% of LME copper inventories now sit in US warehouses such as New Orleans and Baltimore. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Copper Mining | Negative | Lower copper prices trim miners' revenue per tonne. |
| Wire and Cable Manufacturing | Positive | Cable makers pay less for their main raw material when copper falls. |
Who gains, who loses
- Copper buyers: Prices are at a five-week low and more metal is available on the LME.
- Traders who stockpiled copper in the US: The COMEX premium that rewarded shipping metal there has disappeared at the front of the curve.
Other ways this could play out
- If US-held copper keeps flowing into the LME, inventories could rise further and weigh on prices.
- If the stock-market sell-off eases, copper could recover as tight supply outside the US comes back into focus.
Price risks
- A US decision on copper tariffs could suddenly reverse metal flows between COMEX and the LME.
- Supply disruptions at major mines could quickly tighten the market again.
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
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