With copper near record prices and new mines taking 17 years to develop, miners are restarting old ones. Restarts could add almost 1 million tonnes of output a year by 2030, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence estimates.
At a glance
- Sibanye-Stillwater approved a $340 million restart of Tasmania's Mt Lyell mine, idle for 12 years.
- About half of the expected restart volume would come from Cobre Panamá and Panguna.
- Wood Mackenzie says revived mines average about 33,000 tonnes a year, so expansions matter more for supply.
Background
Copper is used in power grids, electric vehicles and data centres, and analysts expect demand to grow faster than mine supply. Building a new mine takes years of exploration, permits and construction. Restarting a mine that already has a known deposit, roads and some equipment can be quicker, though it brings its own problems.
What happened
In September, Sibanye-Stillwater approved a restart of the Mt Lyell copper mine in Tasmania after 12 years idle, Reuters reported on October 15. The restart will cost about $340 million. Output should ramp up to 26,000 tonnes a year after the mine reopens in 2029. Sibanye bought Mt Lyell for $10 million in 2023.
Mt Lyell closed in 2014 after three workers died in two accidents within six weeks. A 2015 restart was shelved when prices fell. Sibanye executive Barry Harris said the company digitised hand-drawn geological maps more than a century old to plan the restart.
Why old mines are coming back
Prices make the numbers work. Copper hit a record $14,875 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange (LME) on September 10. New discoveries take an average of 17 years to reach production, according to S&P Global Energy, so restarting known deposits is a faster route to new supply.
Other revivals are under way. China Nonferrous Mining Corp has partly restarted Zambia's Luanshya mine and is targeting 100,000 tonnes a year by 2030. Glencore plans to restart Argentina's Alumbrera mine, shut since 2018, in the second half of 2027. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence says restarts could add almost 1 million tonnes a year by 2030, over 4% of current output.
What it means for supply
Restarts help, but they are not a cure. S&P Global Energy expects demand to rise 50% to 42 million tonnes a year by 2040 and still forecasts a shortfall of 10 million tonnes. Its analyst Eillen Grace Dela Cruz said restarts buy time but cannot replace major new discoveries.
Old mines also carry old problems, including flooding, worn-out plants, outdated tailings dams and local protests. Charles Cooper of Wood Mackenzie said the key question is why a mine closed in the first place.
Our read
Outlook: bullish. Analysts still expect a long-term shortfall even with restarts, which supports copper prices. Restarts and expansions could ease the gap at the margin.
What to watch
- Any move to restart Cobre Panamá, the biggest single source of potential restart volume.
- Progress at Glencore's Alumbrera ahead of its planned restart in the second half of 2027.
- LME copper prices, which decide whether marginal restarts remain viable.
For information only, not investment advice.
Copper price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-10-16.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-09-10: LME copper hits a record $14,875 a tonne.
- 2026-10-15: Reuters reports that miners are reviving old copper mines, led by Sibanye's Mt Lyell restart.
Demand Drivers
The energy transition and data centres are expected to lift copper demand 50% by 2040, S&P Global Energy says.
Supply Drivers
Restarts could add almost 1 million tonnes a year by 2030, but S&P still sees a 10 million-tonne shortfall by 2040.
Mining Production
Wood Mackenzie says restarted mines average about 33,000 tonnes a year, far less than typical expansions.
What could lift prices
- S&P Global Energy forecasts a 10 million-tonne copper shortfall by 2040 even with restarts.
- New discoveries take about 17 years to reach production.
What could weigh on prices
- Restarts could add almost 1 million tonnes a year by 2030.
- A restart at Cobre Panamá would bring a large volume back quickly.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Australia | Medium | Mt Lyell's restart revives copper mining on Tasmania's west coast with about 300 jobs. |
| Zambia | Medium | Luanshya's restart targets 100,000 tonnes a year by 2030. |
| Argentina | Low | Glencore plans to restart Alumbrera in the second half of 2027. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Copper Mining | Positive | High prices are making idle deposits worth reopening. |
Who gains, who loses
- Owners of idle copper mines: Record prices have turned shelved assets into viable restart projects.
- Communities near contested old mines: Reopening sites like Panguna, shut since 1989 during a civil war, can reignite local conflict.
Other ways this could play out
- If Cobre Panamá and Panguna reopen, restart supply could reach Benchmark's estimate.
- If copper prices fall sharply, marginal restarts like Mt Lyell could be delayed again, as in 2015.
Price risks
- Faster-than-expected restarts and expansions could narrow the supply gap.
- Weaker demand from China could cool prices before new supply arrives.
Historical comparison
- 2015: A planned restart of Mt Lyell was shelved when copper prices fell.
Technical view
Price is mixed relative to its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, showing no clear trend alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
Australia
Argentina