Key Takeaways 76% confidence
- BGS's UK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre projects UK demand could reach 15-40% of current global lithium production and 10-29% of current global graphite production by 2030, driven partly by data centres, AI and quantum computing.
- The new report includes case studies on tellurium, bismuth and hafnium -- three elements with concentrated global supply chains -- alongside gallium, which feeds the high-speed semiconductors AI data centres depend on.
- China produces roughly 90% of the world's gallium and has placed export restrictions on nine materials the CMIC report tracks: gallium, germanium, antimony, graphite, tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, indium and molybdenum.
- The global data-centre market is forecast to grow from $300-350 billion in 2024 to $600-1,000 billion by 2030, with energy use rising at a 16% compound annual growth rate.
- A separate BGS 2024 Criticality Assessment found 18 of 26 materials assessed carry high supply-disruption risk, leaving the UK economically vulnerable given it imports almost all its critical minerals.
The British Geological Survey warns UK data-centre and AI demand could require 15-40% of current global lithium output and 10-29% of graphite by 2030, with gallium and tellurium flagged as acute supply-chain risks.
Analysis 74% confidence
A single number does the most work in CMIC's report: by 2030, the UK alone could need somewhere between 15% and 40% of the entire world's current lithium output. That is not a forecast of UK lithium production -- the UK mines essentially none of it -- it is a forecast of how much of everyone else's lithium the country would need to import to meet its own battery, storage and digital-technology demand. A range that wide, spanning from roughly one-seventh to two-fifths of current global supply, is itself a signal of how much uncertainty still surrounds exactly how fast AI and data-centre buildout will scale, but even the low end of that range represents a dependency most countries would consider a serious strategic exposure.
The report's decision to build detailed case studies specifically around tellurium, bismuth and hafnium is a deliberate choice, not an arbitrary one. Each of the three has a supply chain concentrated in a small number of countries, which means a disruption at any single mine, refinery or export-licensing authority can move global prices and availability with little warning -- exactly the kind of risk a 2050-horizon planning document is built to flag years before it becomes an emergency. Gallium sits alongside them for a different but related reason: gallium nitride and gallium arsenide semiconductors are what let chips run at the higher voltages and temperatures AI workloads demand, making gallium not a peripheral input to the data-centre boom but a direct constraint on how many AI chips the world can actually build.
What turns this from an abstract supply-chain study into a live policy problem is the concentration on the other side of the ledger. China accounts for roughly 90% of global gallium production, and it has already used export licensing on gallium as leverage in broader trade disputes over the past two years -- a pattern the same country has extended to germanium, antimony, graphite, tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, indium and molybdenum, nine of the specific materials CMIC's report tracks. A UK government report modeling multi-decade demand against that backdrop is effectively asking a question with an uncomfortable answer already visible: the country's data-centre and AI ambitions depend on materials it neither mines nor processes, sourced overwhelmingly from a small number of countries, one of which has repeatedly shown willingness to restrict exports of exactly these materials. The report's own framing -- 'challenges and opportunities' -- points toward recycling, alternative sourcing and domestic processing investment as the available levers, but none of those close a gap measured in tens of percent of global supply overnight.
Why This Matters 68% confidence
The UK's problem here is a sharper version of one every non-Chinese economy building AI infrastructure now faces, India included: the physical minerals that make a data centre or an AI chip possible are concentrated in supply chains a handful of countries control, and demand for them is scaling faster than new mines or processing capacity can be built. A report quantifying that gap for one G7 economy is a useful early read on the scale of the squeeze other AI-building nations, and the traders and manufacturers who supply them with gallium, tellurium and lithium, should expect to navigate over the same timeframe.
Price Impact
A government research body quantifying UK demand at 15-40% of current global lithium output and flagging acute gallium and tellurium supply concentration -- against a Chinese-dominated supply chain already subject to export restrictions -- points toward tightening availability and potential upward price pressure for these specific minerals as data-centre and AI buildout accelerates through 2030, though the report itself is a demand projection and supply-chain risk assessment, not a price forecast.
Market Snapshot Computed live
Based on metalscost.com's own tracked India reference price as of 2026-09-21 (current). Volume and open interest aren't tracked by this site and are intentionally left blank rather than estimated.
Technical Analysis Computed live
Price is mixed relative to its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, showing no clear trend alignment.
Breakout probability: Low — price is trading mid-range.
Fundamental Analysis
Demand Drivers 74% confidence
CMIC projects UK demand for 36 materials across nine digital and energy-transition technologies out to 2050, with data centres, AI and quantum computing identified as fast-growing new demand sources; the global data-centre market itself is forecast to grow from $300-350 billion in 2024 to $600-1,000 billion by 2030, with energy use rising at a 16% compound annual growth rate.
Supply Drivers 76% confidence
China produces roughly 90% of the world's gallium and has placed export restrictions on gallium, germanium, antimony, graphite, tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, indium and molybdenum -- concentrating supply risk for several of the exact materials CMIC's report identifies as critical to UK digital-technology demand.
Government Policies 72% confidence
CMIC, hosted by the British Geological Survey and launched in 2022 with Department for Business and Trade support, produced the report as part of its mandate to help the UK government and industry understand future critical-minerals demand and supply-chain vulnerabilities; a separate BGS 2024 Criticality Assessment found 18 of 26 materials assessed carry high supply-disruption risk.
Geopolitical Risks 76% confidence
China's concentrated control of gallium production and its history of export restrictions on nine materials tracked in CMIC's report -- including gallium, tellurium and germanium -- gives a single country outsized influence over whether the UK can meet the mineral demand its own data-centre and AI growth projections imply.
Refinery Output 66% confidence
The report's case studies on tellurium, bismuth and hafnium focus on their concentrated global supply chains, where a small number of refining and processing hubs -- not just mine sites -- represent the practical bottleneck for UK and global digital-technology manufacturing.
Country Impact 72% confidence
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | High | CMIC's report quantifies a UK demand gap of 15-40% of current global lithium output and 10-29% of graphite by 2030 for a country that produces almost none of either domestically, alongside acute exposure to gallium and tellurium supply concentration. — A separate BGS 2024 Criticality Assessment found 18 of 26 materials assessed carry high supply-disruption risk for the UK economy. |
| China | High | China's roughly 90% share of global gallium production, and its export restrictions on nine of the materials CMIC's report tracks, position it as the dominant supply-side gatekeeper for the minerals UK data-centre and AI growth depends on. — China has placed export restrictions on gallium, germanium, antimony, graphite, tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, indium and molybdenum. |
Industry Impact 68% confidence
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Data Centres | Negative | The report ties data-centre, AI and quantum-computing growth directly to a widening UK mineral demand gap, with the global data-centre market forecast to grow from $300-350 billion in 2024 to $600-1,000 billion by 2030. |
| Electronics | Negative | Gallium nitride and gallium arsenide semiconductors, dependent on a supply chain roughly 90% controlled by China, are identified as a direct constraint on how many AI-capable chips can be manufactured. |
Timeline
2022-01-01: The UK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre launches, hosted by the British Geological Survey with Department for Business and Trade support.
2026-05-01: BGS/CMIC publishes 'Mineral requirements of digital technologies: data centres, artificial intelligence and quantum computing,' projecting UK demand for 36 materials out to 2050.
2026-09-02: BGS highlights the report's findings on data-centre demand and UK critical-mineral supply-chain challenges and opportunities.
Market Sentiment
Bullish Factors 58% confidence
- CMIC frames the findings explicitly as 'challenges and opportunities,' pointing toward recycling, alternative sourcing and domestic processing investment as levers the UK and similar economies can still pursue before 2030.
- Quantifying the demand gap this early, on a horizon out to 2050, gives policymakers and industry years of lead time to diversify supply chains rather than reacting to a shortage after it hits.
Bearish Factors 72% confidence
- UK demand for lithium alone could reach 15-40% of current global production by 2030, a scale of import dependency that cannot realistically be closed through recycling or domestic mining on that timeframe.
- China's roughly 90% share of gallium production, combined with export restrictions already placed on nine of the report's tracked materials, leaves the UK's data-centre and AI ambitions exposed to a supply chain it does not control.
- A separate BGS assessment found 18 of 26 critical materials carry high supply-disruption risk for the UK, indicating the gallium and lithium exposure is part of a broader, not isolated, vulnerability.
Alternative Scenarios 56% confidence
- If the UK and allied economies accelerate investment in non-Chinese gallium, tellurium and lithium processing capacity, the projected 2030 demand gap could narrow faster than CMIC's baseline range suggests.
- If AI and data-centre buildout scales more slowly than current $600-1,000 billion 2030 market projections assume, UK mineral demand could land closer to the lower end of CMIC's 15-40% lithium range.
Who Benefits, Who Loses
| Party | Stance | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Non-Chinese lithium, gallium and tellurium producers | Bullish | A quantified, government-flagged UK demand gap of this scale creates a policy and commercial incentive for the UK to seek alternative, non-Chinese sources of these materials. |
| UK data-centre and semiconductor manufacturers | Bearish | A widening gap between projected mineral demand and available, non-restricted supply raises input-cost and availability risk for the AI-infrastructure and chip-manufacturing buildout the UK is counting on. |
Investor Watchlist 64% confidence
Educational items to monitor — not investment advice.
- UK government policy responses to CMIC's demand projections, including any new critical-minerals recycling or domestic processing initiatives
- China's export-licensing policy on gallium, tellurium and the other eight materials named in the report
- Actual global data-centre market growth relative to the $600-1,000 billion 2030 projection, which underpins much of the demand forecast
- Progress on non-Chinese gallium and tellurium processing capacity that could narrow the UK's projected supply gap
Price Risks 62% confidence
- Further Chinese export restrictions on gallium, tellurium or the other materials named in CMIC's report could sharply tighten availability for UK and other Western buyers with little warning.
- If actual data-centre and AI buildout tracks toward the higher end of the $600-1,000 billion 2030 market range, mineral demand -- and price pressure -- could arrive faster than current supply-diversification efforts can offset.
Historical Comparison
BGS 2024 Criticality Assessment: A separate, earlier BGS assessment found 18 of 26 critical materials evaluated carry high supply-disruption risk for the UK economy, establishing the broader vulnerability context this new data-centre-focused report extends.
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