Myanmar's tungsten ore exports to China rose 97% year-on-year in 2026 and tin shipments are recovering, as militia-controlled mines near the Chinese border restart despite ongoing civil conflict.
At a glance
- Myanmar's tungsten ore exports to China hit 6,191 tonnes in the first seven months of 2026, up 97% year-on-year, per Fastmarkets trade-flow data.
- Tin ore and concentrate shipments from Myanmar to China reached 44,069 tonnes in H1 2026, already surpassing all of 2025's 35,142 tonnes -- but still well below the 145,000-187,000 tonnes shipped annually from 2020-2023.
- The Man Maw tin mine in Wa State, suspended by Wa authorities in August 2023, is undergoing what Fastmarkets analyst Rory Deng calls a "slow and uneven restart," slowed by flooded shafts and new dewatering rules.
- Wa authorities collect a 30% tax-in-kind on mine output plus a new 5% dewatering levy added at Man Maw in March 2026.
What happened
Myanmar's tungsten ore shipments to China reached 6,191 tonnes in the first seven months of 2026, up 97% year-on-year, according to trade-flow data reported by Fastmarkets. Tin followed a similar trajectory: China imported 44,069 tonnes of tin ore and concentrate from Myanmar in the first half of 2026 alone, already ahead of the 35,142 tonnes imported across all of 2025 -- though still far short of the 145,000-187,000 tonnes Myanmar shipped annually between 2020 and 2023, before output collapsed 58% in 2024 and a further 54% in 2025.
Much of the tin recovery traces back to the Man Maw mine complex in Wa State, one of Myanmar's largest tin deposits, which Wa authorities suspended in August 2023. Fastmarkets analyst Rory Deng said "the main supply development is new evidence that Man Maw has entered a slow and uneven restart," adding that "the restart reduces the probability of an immediate concentrate shortage but does not establish a full normalization." Flooded deep shafts, new dewatering requirements and restrictions on explosives are slowing the ramp-up, and Wa authorities layered on a further 5% levy in March 2026 to cover dewatering costs, on top of an existing 30% tax-in-kind that armed authorities already collect from mine operators.
Some of the reported tungsten increase may also reflect a reporting shift rather than pure new supply. One market participant told Fastmarkets that cargoes "previously declared primarily as tin material are increasingly being separated and reported according to their tungsten content" -- meaning part of the jump could be existing mixed ore now being sorted and counted differently at the border, not solely fresh output.
The details
The headline numbers -- a 97% jump in tungsten ore shipments, tin exports already past last year's full-year total -- describe a supply chain restarting in territory no government fully controls. Man Maw and the mining districts of Wa State, Karenni State, Shan State and Kachin State sit inside land held by ethnic armed organizations: the United Wa State Army, the National Democratic Alliance Army, the Kachin Independence Army and the New Democratic Army-Kachin. These groups, not Myanmar's central government, set the terms mining companies operate under -- collecting a 30% tax-in-kind on production, and at Man Maw, an additional 5% levy specifically to fund the dewatering needed to reopen shafts flooded during the 2023 suspension.
That arrangement is why the restart is genuinely fragile rather than a simple return to normal. An anonymous Chinese investor who has operated in eastern Myanmar for two years described the dependency bluntly: "every single bolt and nut has to be shipped from China," and the economics only work because Chinese capital and technique compress what would otherwise take two decades into three to five years. But operating in this territory carries a specific, described risk -- the same investor said that "once you have paid protection money, you are seen as effectively funding a local armed group" by Myanmar's military, which then treats the site as a target. That is the mechanism connecting mine economics directly to the conflict: paying the tax that keeps a mine running is also what can draw military retaliation against it.
The rare-earth expansion further north follows the same underlying logic with a longer runway. Mining sites in Wa territory grew eightfold since 2015 to at least 26 as of February 2025, while the National Democratic Alliance Army's area went from three rare-earth mines in 2021 to at least 19 operating in 2025 -- growth that predates and is separate from this year's tungsten and tin numbers, showing this isn't a one-metal story but a broader pattern of Chinese-financed extraction expanding across Myanmar's ethnic-armed-group borderlands.
For buyers, the practical read is that Myanmar supply is real and growing, but it is not the kind of supply base that behaves like a normal mining jurisdiction. A shaft can flood, an authority can raise its levy, or the military can strike a site funding an armed group, and any of those can interrupt shipments with little warning -- which is a different kind of price risk than a conventional mine's operating disruption.
Why it matters
China refines the large majority of the world's tungsten and rare earths, and Myanmar has quietly become one of the raw feedstock sources that keeps those Chinese processing plants supplied -- which means price swings in a conflict most buyers never think about can still move the tungsten carbide tooling, electronics and rare-earth magnet costs that ripple into India's manufacturing and EV supply chains. The scale of the tungsten price move already visible -- from a peak near 985,000 yuan a tonne in March 2026 to about 435,000 yuan by July -- shows how directly a restart in a Wa State mine can move a benchmark Chinese price within months.
Our read
Outlook: bearish. Rising Myanmar tungsten and tin ore shipments into China -- a 97% year-on-year jump in tungsten ore and tin volumes already past all of 2025's total -- have coincided with Chinese tungsten concentrate prices falling more than 55% from a March 2026 peak near 985,000 yuan a tonne to about 435,000 yuan by July. That points to near-term easing pressure on tungsten prices as supply recovers, tempered by the fragility of a restart that runs through conflict-zone territory an analyst says has not yet reached full normalization.
What to watch
- Pace of the Man Maw mine's dewatering and restart over coming months
- Chinese customs data on tungsten and tin ore imports from Myanmar in future reporting periods
- Any change in Wa, NDAA, KIA or NDA-K taxation or licensing terms for mine operators
- Military activity or airstrikes in Karenni, Shan, Kachin or Wa State mining districts
For information only, not investment advice.
Tin price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-10-03.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2023-08-01: Wa authorities suspend the Man Maw tin mine complex in Wa State, Myanmar.
- 2025-02-01: Rare-earth mining sites in United Wa State Army territory reach at least 26, an eightfold increase since 2015, according to the Jamestown Foundation.
- 2025-08-01: Airstrikes in Karenni State kill at least 22 civilians in mining-district territory.
- 2025-11-01: Contained tin output from the Man Maw restart reaches roughly 1,300 tonnes a month by November-December.
- 2026-03-01: Chinese tungsten concentrate (65% WO3) prices peak near 985,000 yuan ($146,853) a tonne; Wa authorities add a 5% dewatering levy on Man Maw output.
- 2026-07-31: Myanmar tungsten ore exports to China reach 6,191 tonnes for the year to date (up 97% year-on-year) and tin ore/concentrate exports reach 44,069 tonnes for H1 2026, while Chinese tungsten concentrate prices fall to about 435,000 yuan ($64,854) a tonne.
Supply Drivers
Myanmar tungsten ore shipments to China rose 97% year-on-year to 6,191 tonnes in the first seven months of 2026, and tin ore/concentrate shipments reached 44,069 tonnes in H1 2026 versus 35,142 tonnes for all of 2025, driven mainly by the restart of the Man Maw tin complex in Wa State after its August 2023 suspension -- though tin supply remains well below the 145,000-187,000 tonnes shipped annually from 2020-2023.
Government Policies
Mining in the relevant Myanmar regions operates under de facto taxation by ethnic armed authorities rather than Myanmar's central government: Wa authorities collect a 30% tax-in-kind on production plus a 5% dewatering levy added at Man Maw in March 2026, while NDAA, KIA and NDA-K territories separately govern rare-earth mining expansion in Shan and Kachin states.
Geopolitical Risks
Mines sit inside territory controlled by ethnic armed organizations (United Wa State Army, National Democratic Alliance Army, Kachin Independence Army, New Democratic Army-Kachin) rather than Myanmar's central government, and mine operators describe military airstrikes as a direct risk tied to paying armed-group taxes -- airstrikes in Karenni State killed at least 22 civilians in August 2025 and six more in September 2026.
Mining Production
Rare-earth mining sites in United Wa State Army territory grew roughly eightfold since 2015 to at least 26 as of February 2025, while the National Democratic Alliance Army's territory went from three rare-earth mines in 2021 to at least 19 operating in 2025, according to the Jamestown Foundation -- expansion that runs parallel to, but separate from, this year's tungsten and tin recovery.
What could lift prices
- Continued restart momentum at Man Maw and other Wa State sites could keep adding tin and tungsten supply into China, supporting price relief for downstream tungsten carbide and solder buyers.
- Rare-earth mine growth in NDAA and UWSA territory suggests Myanmar's role as a feedstock source for China's rare-earth refining base is structurally expanding, not a one-off blip.
What could weigh on prices
- The entire supply chain runs through ethnic armed group-controlled territory with no formal government oversight, leaving it exposed to renewed military airstrikes, flooding, or a change in armed-authority taxation at any time.
- Fastmarkets' own analyst cautions the Man Maw restart 'does not establish a full normalization,' and current tin shipments remain far below 2020-2023 levels.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| China | High | China is the destination for essentially all of the tungsten, tin and rare-earth ore flowing out of Myanmar's ethnic armed group-controlled mining districts, and Chinese capital and equipment fund most of the mining itself. |
| Myanmar | High | Mining revenue and taxation in the relevant border regions flow to ethnic armed organizations rather than the central government, tying the country's mineral export economy directly to its ongoing civil conflict. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Electronics | Neutral | Tungsten carbide tooling and tin solder are core electronics manufacturing inputs, and rising Myanmar-sourced ore easing Chinese supply has coincided with tungsten prices falling from their March 2026 peak, though the supply remains tied to conflict-zone mining that can be disrupted without warning. |
Who gains, who loses
- Chinese smelters and downstream tungsten/tin buyers: Rising Myanmar ore volumes have coincided with tungsten prices falling sharply from their March 2026 peak, easing input costs for Chinese processors and manufacturers relying on tungsten carbide and tin solder.
- Mine operators and workers in Myanmar's conflict-zone mining districts: Operators face escalating armed-authority levies (a 30% tax-in-kind plus a new 5% dewatering charge at Man Maw) and the risk of military airstrikes tied directly to paying those taxes, while civilians in mining regions like Karenni State have been killed in recent strikes.
Other ways this could play out
- A sustained ceasefire and continued dewatering progress at Man Maw could allow tin output to keep climbing back toward pre-2024 levels over the next one to two years.
- Renewed military airstrikes or a dispute over armed-authority tax rates could interrupt shipments again with little warning, reversing this year's supply recovery.
- Some of the reported tungsten volume growth could prove to be a reclassification of previously mixed tin-tungsten cargoes rather than genuine new output, which would mean real supply growth is smaller than the headline 97% figure suggests.
Price risks
- A resumption of military airstrikes or armed conflict in the mining districts could abruptly cut supply, reversing the recent easing in tungsten prices.
- Further reclassification of mixed tin-tungsten cargoes could mean some of the reported tungsten supply growth is not genuine new output, which could surprise the market if volumes plateau.
- Continued smooth restart progress at Man Maw and expansion of rare-earth mining in the north could extend the current downward pressure on tungsten prices.
Historical comparison
- 2020-2023 vs. 2024-2025: Myanmar shipped 145,000-187,000 tonnes of tin ore and concentrate to China annually from 2020-2023; that volume collapsed 58% in 2024 and a further 54% in 2025 before recovering to 44,069 tonnes in H1 2026 alone, already ahead of all of 2025's 35,142 tonnes but still far below the pre-2024 run rate.
Technical view
Price is mixed relative to its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, showing no clear trend alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
China