Glencore produced 52% less cobalt from its own mines in January-September, as Congo's export quotas led it to hold metal back instead of processing it for sale. Its copper output rose 3%, but it expects to finish near the bottom of its guidance.
At a glance
- Own-source cobalt output fell to 13,700 tonnes from 28,500 tonnes a year earlier.
- Third-quarter cobalt output of 3,500 tonnes missed BMO Capital Markets' forecast by 31%.
- Congo's cobalt export restrictions remain in place until at least the end of 2027.
Background
The Democratic Republic of Congo is the world's dominant cobalt producer, and cobalt is used mainly in batteries. Congo suspended cobalt exports in February 2025 after prices fell to nine-year lows, then replaced the ban with annual export quotas from October that year. Glencore is one of the largest cobalt producers.
What happened
Glencore produced 13,700 tonnes of cobalt from its own operations in January-September, down 52% from 28,500 tonnes a year earlier, it said in its production update on Thursday, The Northern Miner reported. Third-quarter output fell 20% from the previous quarter to 3,500 tonnes.
That missed BMO Capital Markets' forecast by 31%. Glencore shares fell 1.9% to £5.31 in London.
Why output fell
Cobalt is increasingly being "retained in solution rather than processed into saleable hydroxide", Glencore said, with value expected to be realised as export rules change. It keeps mining copper from mixed ores while deferring the final processing of some cobalt.
Its Kamoto Copper Company and Mutanda operations hold enough cobalt stocks to meet near-term export quotas, Glencore said. It did not say how much cobalt it is holding back.
Copper and other output
Glencore's own copper production rose 3% to 598,600 tonnes, or 12% on a comparable basis after the Mount Isa copper mine closure and the Kidd sale. Higher mining rates and grades in Africa and richer ore at Peru's Antamina offset weaker output at Antapaccay and Collahuasi.
It kept its 2026 copper guidance of 810,000 to 870,000 tonnes but expects to finish near the bottom of the range. Glencore aims to produce about 1.6 million tonnes of copper a year by 2035.
What it means
Congo's quotas are changing how miners operate, keeping cobalt off the market until at least the end of 2027. Holding cobalt in solution also lowers Glencore's near-term processing costs, the company said.
Our read
Outlook: bullish. A major producer is holding back cobalt under Congo's quotas, keeping supply tight until at least the end of 2027.
What to watch
- Any change to Congo's cobalt export quotas.
- When Glencore processes the cobalt it is holding back.
- Cobalt prices as quotas limit supply.
For information only, not investment advice.
Cobalt price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-11-01.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-10-29: Glencore reports a 52% fall in nine-month cobalt output.
Supply Drivers
Glencore is holding cobalt in solution, cutting saleable output by more than half.
Government Policies
Congo's export quotas cover 2026 and 2027 and are reshaping how miners produce cobalt.
What could lift prices
- Less saleable cobalt is reaching the market from a major producer.
- Congo's quotas run until at least the end of 2027.
What could weigh on prices
- Glencore holds cobalt that could be sold quickly if quotas ease.
- Its Congolese operations already hold enough stock to meet near-term quotas.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Republic of the Congo | High | Its export quotas are cutting saleable cobalt output. |
| Switzerland | Low | Glencore, based there, reported lower cobalt output. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Battery Manufacturing | Negative | Battery makers face tighter cobalt supply. |
Who gains, who loses
- Cobalt sellers outside Congo: Quotas limit Congolese supply, supporting their market.
- Battery makers: Less saleable cobalt is reaching the market.
Other ways this could play out
- If Congo eases quotas, Glencore could release held-back cobalt quickly.
- If quotas stay tight through 2027, cobalt supply could remain limited.
Price risks
- A change in Congo's export rules could quickly add supply.
- Weaker battery demand would limit any price gain.
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
Switzerland