Greenland has approved the mining and closure plans for Critical Metals' Tanbreez project, one of the larger undeveloped heavy rare earth deposits outside China. The company still needs several permits and a financial security before it can start building the mine.
At a glance
- A 2025 study valued Tanbreez at $2.1 billion after tax, with initial capital costs of $290 million.
- Critical Metals targets first ore in late 2028 or early 2029 and concentrate exports in the third quarter of 2029.
- REalloys has agreed to buy 15% of initial output for a US mine-to-magnet supply chain.
Background
Rare earths are a group of 17 metals used in permanent magnets for motors, wind turbines and defence systems. Heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and terbium are the scarcest and most valuable, and China dominates their supply. Greenland, a self-governing territory of Denmark, holds several large undeveloped deposits that the US and its allies see as an alternative source.
What happened
Greenland's government has approved the mining and closure plans for Tanbreez, Critical Metals said on Monday. Signed on September 29, the plans set out how the mine, processing plants, port and infrastructure will be built, run and eventually rehabilitated through September 2050.
"Approval of the mining and closure plans is a defining milestone for Tanbreez and for Critical Metals Corp.," chairman and chief executive Tony Sage said. The company's shares rose 4.4% to $7.34 on Monday morning in New York.
What still stands in the way
The approval does not yet allow construction. Critical Metals still needs separate approvals for environmental management, marine transport, health and safety and mineral exports, plus a required financial security.
Its exploitation licence, granted in 2020, requires that security and a company guarantee by the end of this year, and mining to begin by June 2029. Tanbreez has no mineral reserves yet. An April estimate put its resource at nearly 45 million tonnes grading 0.4% total rare earth oxides. The company has started a 10,000-metre drilling program and bought a former cruise ship to house workers.
What it means
The project fits a wider Western push for rare earth supply outside China. In September, the US, Denmark and Greenland signed a security agreement that cited cooperation on minerals and investment.
A 2025 preliminary study outlined initial output of about 85,000 tonnes a year, with room to expand to about 425,000 tonnes. In May, REalloys signed a binding 15-year deal to take 15% of initial production for a US-based mine-to-magnet supply chain serving defence and industrial customers.
Our read
Outlook: neutral. Tanbreez will not produce until late 2028 at the earliest, so the approval does not change rare earth supply today. It adds to the long-term pipeline of non-Chinese heavy rare earths.
What to watch
- Whether Critical Metals posts its financial security and company guarantee by the end of this year.
- The remaining permits for environmental management, marine transport and exports.
- Further offtake agreements beyond the 15% committed to REalloys.
For information only, not investment advice.
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Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-09-29: Greenland signs off on Tanbreez's mining and closure plans.
- 2026-10-05: Critical Metals announces the approval.
Supply Drivers
Tanbreez could add heavy rare earth supply outside China from 2029.
Geopolitical Risks
The US and its allies are backing non-Chinese rare earth projects, including in Greenland.
What could lift prices
- First output is at least two years away, leaving heavy rare earth supply tight in the meantime.
- Tanbreez still needs several permits before construction can start.
What could weigh on prices
- Approval moves a large heavy rare earth deposit outside China closer to production.
- Initial output of 85,000 tonnes a year could expand to about 425,000 tonnes.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Greenland | High | The approval advances one of its largest planned mining projects. |
| United States | Medium | REalloys will use 15% of initial output in a US mine-to-magnet supply chain. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Critical Minerals Mining | Positive | A major heavy rare earth project clears a key permitting step. |
Who gains, who loses
- Critical Metals Corp: It now has a framework through 2050 to develop the project.
- US magnet makers: They gain a potential non-Chinese source of heavy rare earths.
- Chinese rare earth suppliers: Western buyers gain another potential alternative to Chinese supply.
Other ways this could play out
- If Critical Metals secures its remaining permits and financial security, construction could begin ahead of first ore in late 2028.
- If it misses the end-of-year security deadline, its licence timeline could come under pressure.
Price risks
- Changes in Chinese rare earth export policy would move prices far more than this approval.
- Delays in financing could push back Tanbreez's start date.
Technical view
Price is mixed relative to its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, showing no clear trend alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
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