Gina Rinehart's Hancock Prospecting has pushed back on an estimate that its rare-earth shares lost A$680 million in value over the past year. It says the figure ignores its full trading history and the lower prices at which it bought many of the shares.
At a glance
- Hancock says the A$680 million estimate does not reflect its full trading history or its acquisition prices.
- The company began building its rare-earth stakes in 2020, often at prices below those used in the comparison.
- MP Materials shares fell 32% and Lynas shares 19% over the past year.
Background
A paper loss is a fall in the market value of shares that have not been sold. It says nothing about whether an investor is ahead or behind overall, which depends on what they paid. The Australian Financial Review estimated Hancock's paper loss by comparing the value of its publicly disclosed holdings in MP Materials and Lynas Rare Earths over 12 months.
What Hancock says
Hancock Prospecting is disputing a report by the Australian Financial Review that its rare-earth holdings fell in value by A$680 million, or about $478 million, over the past year. "The calculation doesn't reflect the company's full trading history or acquisition prices," a Hancock spokesperson said.
The spokesperson called the AFR's method incomplete. Public disclosures do not capture all of Hancock's trading, the company said, and the timing and prices of its purchases are not fully known. The AFR had attributed roughly two-thirds of the estimated fall to MP Materials and most of the rest to Lynas.
Why the numbers differ
Hancock began building its rare-earth positions in 2020. It says it bought shares at different times and prices, including below the levels used in the AFR's comparison. The estimate measures how much the stakes fell over one selected year, not what Hancock paid or whether it is in profit.
The share price falls themselves are not in dispute. MP Materials is down 32% over the past year and Lynas Rare Earths is down 19%. Hancock's MP Materials stake is worth about $834 million, based on the latest US filings.
What it means
The episode shows how easily a paper loss can be read as a realised one. The AFR figure was an unrealised fall in market value, not a loss on shares sold. Hancock's actual return depends on purchase prices it has not fully disclosed.
Rare earths make up roughly 10% of Rinehart's estimated $25.1 billion fortune, alongside lithium and copper holdings. Hancock also holds stakes in developers including Arafura Rare Earths and St George Mining.
Our read
Outlook: neutral. A dispute over how to value an investor's shares does not change rare-earth supply or demand. It matters for how investors read the sector's share price falls.
What to watch
- Any further disclosure by Hancock of its purchase prices or total rare-earth investment cost.
- MP Materials and Lynas share prices, which drive the market value of Hancock's stakes.
- Changes in Hancock's holdings in its next substantial-shareholder filings.
For information only, not investment advice.
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metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-10-03.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-09-28: The Australian Financial Review estimates a A$680 million fall in the value of Hancock's rare-earth stakes.
- 2026-09-30: Hancock Prospecting disputes the estimate, citing its full trading history and purchase prices.
Demand Drivers
Investor appetite for rare-earth producers outside China has cooled, with MP Materials down 32% and Lynas down 19% in a year.
Supply Drivers
Hancock's stakes give it exposure to MP Materials, America's main rare-earth producer, and Lynas, the largest producer outside China.
What could lift prices
- A long-term holder like Hancock staying invested supports rare-earth developers that need patient capital.
- Hancock's early entry in 2020 suggests its overall position may be stronger than the one-year figure implies.
What could weigh on prices
- MP Materials and Lynas shares are still down 32% and 19% over the past year.
- Headlines about large paper losses can weigh on investor appetite for rare-earth stocks.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Australia | Low | Hancock is one of Australia's largest private investors in rare-earth companies. |
| United States | Low | MP Materials, Hancock's largest rare-earth stake, is the main US producer. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Critical Minerals Mining | Neutral | The dispute concerns how one investor's stakes are valued, not the sector's operations. |
Who gains, who loses
- Rare-earth developers backed by Hancock: Hancock's defence of its holdings signals it is not stepping back from the sector.
- Investors who bought MP Materials and Lynas near last year's highs: Unlike early buyers, they carry the full 32% and 19% share price falls.
Other ways this could play out
- If MP Materials and Lynas shares recover, the paper-loss debate will fade quickly.
- If the shares keep falling, questions about the value of Hancock's stakes will return.
Price risks
- Further share price falls at MP Materials and Lynas would deepen any paper loss regardless of method.
- Rare-earth prices themselves depend far more on China's export policies than on investor valuations.
Technical view
Price is trading above both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bullish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
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