Iron ore prices fell to their lowest in more than two years on Tuesday, as weak steel demand in China, high stocks at Chinese ports and expectations of more supply weighed on the market. Benchmark ore in Singapore touched $89.30 a tonne.
At a glance
- Dalian's most-traded iron ore contract touched 661.5 yuan a tonne, its weakest since September 24, 2024.
- Steel mills are cautious about buying ore because their profit margins are thin.
- Coking coal, coke and Shanghai steel futures also fell.
Background
Iron ore is the main raw material for making steel, and China is its top consumer. Hot metal output, the molten iron produced by blast furnaces, is a common gauge of how much ore Chinese mills are using. Steel demand in China usually weakens in the fourth quarter as cold weather in the north slows building work.
What happened
The most-traded iron ore contract on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange fell 1.19% to 662 yuan ($99.25) a tonne on Tuesday morning, Reuters reported. Earlier it touched 661.5 yuan, its weakest since September 24, 2024.
The benchmark November contract on the Singapore Exchange dropped 1.15% to $89.45 a tonne. It had hit $89.30, its lowest since September 23, 2024.
Why prices fell
Steel demand has weakened for the season, and thin margins are holding back hot metal output, said Jiang Mengtian, an analyst at consultancy Horizon Insights. Ore supply is also expected to rise in the fourth quarter.
Mills are cautious about buying raw materials because port stocks are high and more supply is coming, said Chu Xinli, an analyst at broker China Futures. "Weakness in the steel market has permeated into the upstream feedstock markets," he said.
Across steel markets
Other steelmaking materials also fell, with coking coal down 2.03% and coke down 1.86%. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, rebar lost 0.79%, hot-rolled coil 1.28%, wire rod 1.89% and stainless steel 1.51%.
What it means
The fall extends a long slide. Seaborne iron ore was already 15.8% cheaper than a year earlier on October 23, Argus data show. Lower prices add pressure on miners such as Fortescue, which warned last week that a pricing dispute with China's state-backed buyer could hurt its full-year profit.
Our read
Outlook: bearish. Weak Chinese steel demand, high port stocks and expected supply growth point to further pressure on iron ore.
What to watch
- Chinese hot metal output, a gauge of iron ore demand.
- Iron ore stocks at Chinese ports.
- Shipments from major miners in the fourth quarter.
For information only, not investment advice.
Iron price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-11-01.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-10-27: Iron ore touches its lowest in more than two years in Dalian and Singapore.
Demand Drivers
Chinese steel demand has weakened seasonally, and thin margins are limiting hot metal output.
Inventory Drivers
High iron ore stocks at Chinese ports are making mills cautious about buying.
What could lift prices
- Lower ore prices could help Chinese steel mills rebuild thin margins.
- Mills may restock if prices fall far enough.
What could weigh on prices
- Iron ore supply is expected to rise in the fourth quarter.
- Chinese steel demand usually weakens further as winter slows construction.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| China | High | Weak steel demand and high port stocks in China are driving prices down. |
| Australia | Medium | Lower iron ore prices cut revenue for Australian miners such as BHP and Fortescue. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore Mining | Negative | Miners receive less for their ore at a two-year low. |
| Steel | Positive | Steelmakers pay less for their main raw material. |
Who gains, who loses
- Chinese steel mills: Cheaper iron ore eases pressure on their thin margins.
- Iron ore miners: Prices are at their lowest in more than two years.
Other ways this could play out
- If Chinese steel demand stays weak through winter, iron ore could fall further.
- If China announces new support for construction, prices could recover.
Price risks
- Chinese policy support for property or infrastructure could lift steel demand.
- Supply disruptions at major mines could reverse the fall.
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
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