Ivanhoe Mines now expects Kamoa-Kakula in Congo to produce 300,000 to 350,000 tonnes of copper in 2027, down from 380,000 to 420,000 tonnes. It is the second cut this year, as recovery from 2025 flooding takes longer than expected.
At a glance
- Ivanhoe raised its 2027 cash cost guidance to $2.50-3.00 a pound from $2.10-2.50, citing diesel prices, lower grades and lower output.
- Production mining on Kakula's eastern side is now due to restart in late March 2028, not late 2027.
- Ivanhoe shares fell 11% to C$7.89 in Toronto on Wednesday, their lowest since July 2022.
Background
Kamoa-Kakula is a copper mining complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo, operated by Ivanhoe Mines. Seismic activity and flooding disrupted its underground operations in May 2025. C1 cash cost measures the direct cost of producing a pound of copper, before sustaining capital and other charges.
What happened
Ivanhoe Mines cut its 2027 copper forecast for Kamoa-Kakula to 300,000-350,000 tonnes from 380,000-420,000 tonnes, in a statement released after markets closed on Tuesday. The cut removes 75,000 tonnes at the midpoint, MINING.COM reported.
Before a more cautious mine plan in March, the 2027 target had been 500,000-540,000 tonnes. Ivanhoe now expects about 290,000 tonnes this year, the bottom of its earlier range.
Why the forecast fell
Recovery work at the flood-hit underground Kakula mine is taking longer than expected, The Northern Miner reported. Production mining on Kakula's eastern side is now due to restart in late March 2028, rather than late 2027, after more geological and engineering work.
Ivanhoe also cut the expected steady-state capacity of its three existing concentrators to 400,000-450,000 tonnes a year. To add flexibility, it plans to start stripping waste rock at two shallow open pits in the first quarter of 2027, with first ore due in the third quarter.
Higher diesel prices, lower ore grades and reduced output pushed 2027 cash cost guidance up to $2.50-3.00 a pound.
What it means
Ivanhoe now needs a fourth concentrator to return to about 500,000 tonnes a year. Detailed engineering is due to start in the first quarter of 2027, and construction would take 18 to 24 months once the project is approved.
TD Cowen analyst Craig Hutchison said the path back to about 500,000 tonnes a year has become longer, more capital intensive and more dependent on future execution. He cut his rating on Ivanhoe to hold from buy.
Our read
Outlook: bullish. Less copper from one of the largest new mines tightens supply in 2027.
What to watch
- Ivanhoe's updated life-of-mine plan, scheduled for March 2027.
- The start of open-pit stripping in the first quarter of 2027.
- A decision on the fourth concentrator expansion.
For information only, not investment advice.
Copper price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-11-07.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-11-03: Ivanhoe cuts its 2027 Kamoa-Kakula copper forecast after markets close.
Inflation
Diesel prices and lower grades lifted 2027 cash cost guidance to $2.50-3.00 a pound.
Mining Production
Kamoa-Kakula's 2027 forecast fell by 75,000 tonnes at the midpoint as the Kakula recovery slips.
What could lift prices
- Ivanhoe removed 75,000 tonnes from its 2027 plan at the midpoint.
- Kakula's eastern side will not resume production mining until 2028.
What could weigh on prices
- Kamoa-Kakula's output rose to 76,401 tonnes in the third quarter from 64,328 tonnes in the second.
- Other miners, including Freeport, are approving new copper projects.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Republic of Congo | High | Kamoa-Kakula's output forecast for 2027 fell by about 19%. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Copper Mining | Negative | A major new mine is taking longer to recover and costs more to run. |
Who gains, who loses
- Other copper producers: Less supply from Kamoa-Kakula could support copper prices.
- Ivanhoe shareholders: The shares fell 11% to their lowest since July 2022.
Other ways this could play out
- If open-pit mining starts on time in 2027, it could offset part of the underground shortfall.
- If the Kakula recovery slips again, 2027 output could fall further.
Price risks
- Further geological problems underground could delay the recovery.
- Higher diesel prices are lifting operating costs.
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
