Key Takeaways 84% confidence
- Ivanhoe Mines' Makoko District resource grew to 42 million tonnes Indicated (2.66% copper) plus 612 million tonnes Inferred (1.80% copper) -- about 12.1 million tonnes of contained copper combined, up roughly 30% from May 2025.
- Indicated contained copper rose about 17% and Inferred contained copper about 31% versus the prior estimate, which stood at 36 million tonnes Indicated (2.76% copper) and 494 million tonnes Inferred (1.7% copper).
- About 60,000 metres of 2026 drilling results were not yet folded into this estimate and will appear in a 2027 update, meaning the resource could grow further.
- Ivanhoe calls Makoko the world's largest and highest-grade new copper discovery of the past decade; a scoping study is due to start in Q1 2027, with an expanded infill drilling program beginning in Q4 2026 aimed at converting 30-40% of the Inferred resource to Indicated.
Ivanhoe Mines grew its Makoko District copper resource in Congo by about 30% to roughly 12 million tonnes of contained copper, calling it the decade's largest new copper discovery.
Analysis 82% confidence
Ivanhoe Mines has increased the mineral resource estimate at its Makoko District, part of its wholly owned Western Forelands exploration project in the Democratic Republic of Congo, to 42 million tonnes of Indicated resource grading 2.66% copper and 612 million tonnes of Inferred resource grading 1.80% copper. Together those contain roughly 12.1 million tonnes of copper -- about 26.7 billion pounds -- up close to 30% from the company's May 2025 estimate of 36 million tonnes Indicated at 2.76% copper and 494 million tonnes Inferred at 1.7% copper. Broken down, contained copper in the Indicated category rose about 17%, while the Inferred category grew roughly 31%.
The update likely understates where the resource stands today: about 60,000 metres of drilling completed during 2026 were not yet incorporated into this estimate and will feed a further revision in 2027, and mineralization remains open in multiple directions. Executive Co-Chair Robert Friedland, framing the pace of discovery, said the Western Forelands project is yielding "100 million pounds of contained copper for every 1,000 metres drilled" -- an unusually high discovery rate by industry standards, where many exploration programs drill tens of thousands of metres without finding an economic deposit at all.
The Western Forelands licence area covers 2,426 square kilometres, more than six times the footprint of Ivanhoe's adjacent, already-producing Kamoa-Kakula copper complex -- one of the world's largest copper mines. Makoko sits within that broader package, and Ivanhoe describes it as the world's largest and highest-grade new copper discovery of the past decade, a claim built on comparison against other major discoveries announced globally since 2015.
The path to production remains long. Ivanhoe plans an expanded infill drilling program starting in the fourth quarter of 2026, aimed at converting 30-40% of the Inferred resource into the more reliable Indicated category, with a scoping study -- the first formal step toward evaluating mine economics -- not due to begin until the first quarter of 2027. That timeline means Makoko has no bearing on copper supply for years to come; its significance today is entirely about the scale of resource being added to the global exploration pipeline, at a moment when copper prices are hitting records partly on concerns about scarce future supply.
Why This Matters 76% confidence
Large, high-grade copper discoveries have become rare enough globally that a project of Makoko's scale -- 12 million tonnes of contained copper and still growing -- stands out against a backdrop of record copper prices driven partly by worries that not enough new supply is being found. Ivanhoe's own framing, discovering copper at a rate of 100 million pounds for every 1,000 metres drilled, underscores how unusual the geology is even in an industry where most exploration comes up empty. For a market pricing in scarcity, a discovery this size is a reminder that the long-run supply picture can shift even while near-term prices stay tight -- though only years from now, once Makoko clears a scoping study and, eventually, a construction decision.
Price Impact
This is a resource-size increase at a project still years from production -- a scoping study doesn't start until Q1 2027 -- so it has no near-term effect on copper's spot price. Its significance is structural: it adds meaningfully to the long-run global copper supply pipeline at a moment when the market is pricing near-term scarcity into record prices elsewhere.
Market Snapshot Computed live
Based on metalscost.com's own tracked India reference price as of 2026-09-13 (current). Volume and open interest aren't tracked by this site and are intentionally left blank rather than estimated.
Technical Analysis Computed live
Price is mixed relative to its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, showing no clear trend alignment.
Breakout probability: Low — price is trading mid-range.
Fundamental Analysis
Supply Drivers 78% confidence
Makoko's resource growth adds meaningfully to the long-run global copper supply pipeline -- roughly 12.1 million tonnes of contained copper and growing -- though a scoping study doesn't begin until Q1 2027, so it has no bearing on supply for years.
Geopolitical Risks 62% confidence
The discovery sits in the Democratic Republic of Congo, alongside Ivanhoe's producing Kamoa-Kakula complex and its Kipushi and Platreef projects -- placing a growing share of the company's copper resource base in a jurisdiction where mining investment carries country-specific political and regulatory risk not present in, say, a project in Canada or Australia.
Mining Production 80% confidence
Makoko is a resource-stage discovery, not yet a producing mine; an expanded infill drilling program begins Q4 2026 and a scoping study -- the first step toward evaluating whether and how to build a mine -- starts Q1 2027.
Country Impact 68% confidence
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Republic of Congo | High | The Makoko District and the broader Western Forelands project sit entirely within the DRC, adding a major new copper resource to a country that already hosts Ivanhoe's producing Kamoa-Kakula complex. — The 2,426-square-kilometre Western Forelands licence area is more than six times the size of the adjacent Kamoa-Kakula complex. |
| Canada | Low | Ivanhoe Mines is headquartered in Vancouver and listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange, so the resource growth flows through to a Canadian-listed company's valuation even though the physical asset is in Africa. — Ivanhoe trades on the TSX under the ticker IVN. |
Industry Impact 74% confidence
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Mining | Positive | A resource increase of this scale, described by Ivanhoe as the largest and highest-grade new copper discovery of the past decade, strengthens the company's long-term project pipeline and the broader case that large copper deposits are still being found. |
Timeline
2025-05: Ivanhoe's prior Makoko District resource estimate stood at 36 million tonnes Indicated (2.76% copper) and 494 million tonnes Inferred (1.7% copper).
2026-08: Roughly 70% of the year's diamond drilling at Makoko had been completed, though about 60,000 metres of results were not yet incorporated into the resource model.
2026-09-08: Ivanhoe announced the updated Makoko resource: 42 million tonnes Indicated (2.66% copper) and 612 million tonnes Inferred (1.80% copper), about 12.1 million tonnes of contained copper combined, up roughly 30% from May 2025.
2026-Q4: Planned start of an expanded infill drilling program targeting conversion of 30-40% of the Inferred resource to Indicated.
2027-Q1: Planned start of a scoping study for Makoko, the first formal step toward evaluating mine economics.
Market Sentiment
Bullish Factors 74% confidence
- Contained copper across Indicated and Inferred categories grew roughly 30% versus the May 2025 estimate, to about 12.1 million tonnes, with mineralization still open in multiple directions.
- About 60,000 metres of 2026 drilling haven't yet been incorporated, meaning the next update -- due in 2027 -- could show further growth.
- Ivanhoe's own discovery-rate figure, 100 million pounds of contained copper per 1,000 metres drilled, is unusually high, suggesting continued drilling could keep adding resource efficiently.
Bearish Factors 62% confidence
- The resource is still overwhelmingly Inferred (612 million tonnes) rather than the more reliable Indicated category (42 million tonnes), and a scoping study -- the first real economic evaluation -- doesn't begin until Q1 2027.
- A discovery of this size, if it eventually reaches production, adds to the long-run global copper supply pipeline at a time when record prices are partly built on expectations of future scarcity -- a dynamic that could temper long-run price forecasts even though it has no near-term effect.
Alternative Scenarios 58% confidence
- If the planned Q4 2026 infill drilling successfully converts 30-40% of the Inferred resource to Indicated, Makoko's economics would become clearer heading into the Q1 2027 scoping study, potentially accelerating a path toward development.
- If drilling results disappoint or the scoping study finds the deposit's depth or metallurgy less favorable than the current grade suggests, the timeline to any production decision could extend well beyond current expectations.
Who Benefits, Who Loses
| Party | Stance | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Ivanhoe Mines shareholders | Bullish | A larger, still-growing copper resource base at a company already operating one of the world's largest copper mines strengthens Ivanhoe's long-term project pipeline and net asset value. |
| Long-run copper supply-scarcity narratives | Bearish | A discovery this large, if eventually developed, adds meaningfully to the pool of future copper supply -- a slow-moving counterweight to the argument that not enough new copper is being found to meet demand. |
Investor Watchlist 72% confidence
Educational items to monitor — not investment advice.
- The 2027 resource update incorporating the roughly 60,000 metres of 2026 drilling not yet included in this estimate
- Results of the Q4 2026 infill drilling program aimed at converting Inferred resource to the more reliable Indicated category
- The Q1 2027 Makoko scoping study, the first formal step toward evaluating mine economics
Price Risks 58% confidence
- None of Makoko's resource growth affects copper supply in the near term, since a scoping study hasn't started; any near-term copper price move remains driven by current mine output and demand, not this discovery.
- A future scoping study that finds unfavorable project economics (depth, metallurgy, infrastructure costs) could delay or shrink the eventual supply this resource represents.
Historical Comparison
May 2025 estimate: Makoko's resource stood at 36 million tonnes Indicated (2.76% copper) and 494 million tonnes Inferred (1.7% copper) -- roughly 30% less contained copper than the September 2026 update.
Canada