Lundin Mining cut its 2026 copper forecast for the Caserones mine in Chile to 105,000-115,000 tonnes from 120,000-130,000 tonnes, its second cut since August. Winter storms halted the mine for about 30 days, and snowmelt is still slowing ore haulage.
At a glance
- The company-wide copper forecast is now 285,000-310,000 tonnes.
- Third-quarter copper output of 62,610 tonnes missed the 68,000-tonne analyst consensus, BMO said.
- Free cash flow from operations reached $418 million, leaving net cash of $237 million.
Background
Caserones is one of Lundin Mining's key copper mines in Chile. Lundin first guided to 130,000-140,000 tonnes there for 2026, before cutting in August. Cash cost is the direct cost of producing a pound of copper. Lundin is also developing the Vicuña copper-gold project on the Chile-Argentina border with BHP.
What happened
Lundin Mining cut full-year guidance for Caserones to 105,000-115,000 tonnes of copper from 120,000-130,000 tonnes in its third-quarter results on Thursday, MINING.COM reported. It is the second cut since August, when the target fell from 130,000-140,000 tonnes.
That takes the company-wide forecast to 285,000-310,000 tonnes. Lundin produced 62,610 tonnes of copper in the quarter, below the 68,000-tonne analyst consensus cited by BMO Capital Markets.
Why the forecast fell
Severe winter storms suspended operations at Caserones for about 30 days in the third quarter. Snowmelt has since restricted haulage rates and ore deliveries to the mill into the fourth quarter.
Lundin said these are "deferred tonnes rather than lost production", and it expects operations to recover through 2027. Caserones' cash cost guidance stays at $2.15-2.35 a pound.
What it means
Record realised copper prices softened the blow. Quarterly revenue topped $1.1 billion, and free cash flow from operations reached $418 million, leaving net cash of $237 million at quarter-end.
Copper output at the Candelaria complex rose 13% from the second quarter, and Chapada in Brazil had its best quarter of the year. Lundin also cut Caserones' sustaining capital guidance by $20 million to $215 million.
Lundin is targeting a sanction decision before year-end on Vicuña, its 50:50 venture with BHP on the Chile-Argentina border.
Our read
Outlook: bullish. Lundin removed 15,000 tonnes from its Caserones forecast, trimming copper supply this year.
What to watch
- Fourth-quarter haulage at Caserones as snowmelt continues.
- A sanction decision on the Vicuña project before year-end.
- Lundin's 2027 production guidance.
For information only, not investment advice.
Copper price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-11-10.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-11-05: Lundin Mining cuts its Caserones forecast in its third-quarter results.
Supply Drivers
Lundin says the lost tonnes are deferred and expects a recovery through 2027.
Mining Production
Caserones' 2026 forecast fell by 15,000 tonnes after storms and snowmelt.
What could lift prices
- Lundin removed 15,000 tonnes from its Caserones forecast.
- It is the second cut at the mine since August.
What could weigh on prices
- Lundin calls the tonnes deferred, not lost.
- Candelaria's output rose 13% from the second quarter.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Chile | High | Storms and snowmelt cut output at Caserones. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Copper Mining | Negative | Weather disruption cut output at a key Chilean mine. |
Who gains, who loses
- Lundin Mining's balance sheet: Record realised copper prices left net cash of $237 million.
- Lundin Mining shareholders: Quarterly output missed the analyst consensus, and guidance fell again.
Other ways this could play out
- If snowmelt eases, Caserones could recover through 2027, as Lundin expects.
- If haulage stays restricted, the forecast could slip again.
Price risks
- Further weather disruption would cut Chilean supply.
- A recovery in deferred tonnes would add supply in 2027.
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
