Metals and mining companies entered 2026 with a record $3.7 trillion market value and strong profits, driven largely by gold, but revenue grew only about 1% last year and productivity has stalled, McKinsey says.
At a glance
- Industry EBITDA exceeded $800 billion, with average margins of 27%.
- Gold producers delivered an 8.1-fold rise in shareholder returns between 2015 and 2025.
- Gold overtook steel and thermal coal in the industry's EBITDA pool for the first time.
Background
McKinsey & Company's Global Materials Perspective is an annual review of the metals and mining industry, now in its third year. EBITDA, or earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, is a common measure of operating profit. Total shareholder return combines share price gains and dividends.
What the report found
Metals and mining market capitalisation reached a record $3.7 trillion, about 230% higher than in 2015, McKinsey's Global Materials Perspective 2026 found, International Mining reported. EBITDA exceeded $800 billion, and average EBITDA margins reached 27%.
Growth was weak underneath those numbers. Revenue rose only around 1% in 2025, volumes were largely flat, labour productivity was unchanged and capital productivity declined.
Why gold drove the gains
A shift toward higher-margin commodities, particularly gold and copper, lifted margins. Gold prices rose 45% year on year, and gold overtook steel and thermal coal in the industry's EBITDA pool for the first time.
Returns have diverged sharply. Between 2015 and 2025, gold producers delivered an 8.1-fold increase in total shareholder returns, against 6.3 times for copper and 2.2 times for nickel.
What it means
"Higher commodity prices, particularly for gold, have supported strong returns, while underlying growth has remained modest," said McKinsey senior partner Michel Van Hoey. He said the industry should turn today's financial strength into investment decisions that follow where future demand is shifting.
Mining Technology also reported McKinsey's finding that productivity has stalled despite advances in automation and AI.
Our read
Outlook: neutral. The report describes industry finances rather than a change in gold supply or demand.
What to watch
- Whether miners use record profits to fund new capacity or return cash to shareholders.
- Productivity gains from automation and AI at large mines.
For information only, not investment advice.
Gold price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-10-16.
Detailed analysis
Demand Drivers
Higher gold and copper prices, not volume growth, drove margin expansion.
Mining Production
Volumes were largely flat in 2025, and labour productivity was unchanged.
What could lift prices
- Gold producers' shareholder returns have far outpaced other metals.
- Strong balance sheets give miners room to invest.
What could weigh on prices
- Revenue grew only around 1% last year.
- Capital productivity is declining.
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Mining | Positive | Gold producers led the industry's profit and return gains. |
| Mining | Negative | Stalled productivity limits growth beyond price gains. |
Who gains, who loses
- Gold mining shareholders: They earned an 8.1-fold rise in returns over a decade.
- Nickel investors: Nickel returned 2.2 times over the same period, the weakest of the three.
Other ways this could play out
- If gold prices stay high, gold miners could keep dominating industry profits.
- If productivity does not improve, a fall in prices would hit margins quickly.
Price risks
- A sharp drop in gold prices would erode the industry's record margins.
- Rising costs could outpace stagnant productivity.
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
