Newmont, the world's largest gold producer, earned more than analysts expected in the third quarter as output recovered at its Cadia mine in Australia. It also lowered its forecast for what it costs to produce an ounce of gold this year.
At a glance
- Adjusted earnings of $2.20 a share topped the highest analyst estimate of $2.19.
- Gold output rose 7% from the second quarter to 1.30 million ounces, led by Cadia's recovery.
- Newmont now expects all-in sustaining costs of $1,520 an ounce in 2026, down from $1,590.
Background
Newmont is the world's largest gold producer. All-in sustaining cost (AISC) is the industry's standard measure of what it costs to keep producing an ounce of gold, including mining, processing and the spending needed to maintain operations. The gap between AISC and the gold price is roughly a miner's margin per ounce.
What happened
Newmont reported adjusted net income of $2.20 a share for the third quarter on October 22, Kitco reported. That beat the analysts' average forecast of $1.94 and was 28.7% higher than a year earlier. Net income attributable to shareholders was $2.8 billion.
Gold production rose 7% from the previous quarter to 1.30 million ounces. The gain came mainly from Cadia in Australia, which is recovering from a seismic event, along with stronger output at Boddington and Peñasquito.
Why profit rose despite lower prices
Newmont received an average of $4,317 an ounce for its gold, $97 less than in the second quarter. It still earned more because it sold more gold, got higher prices for its copper and spent less per ounce.
All-in sustaining costs fell 2% to $1,545 an ounce. The company now expects $1,520 an ounce for the full year, down from its earlier forecast of $1,590, while keeping its production target of about 5.9 million ounces.
Cash and what comes next
Newmont generated $1.9 billion of free cash flow and ended the quarter with $8.8 billion in cash and net cash of $3.2 billion. It has returned about $1.5 billion to shareholders since its last results and declared a dividend of 26 cents a share.
The company expects the fourth quarter to be its strongest of the year. It warned that rising oil prices, inflation and lower by-product output could push unit costs higher towards year-end. "Newmont remains on track to achieve our full-year 2026 production guidance and improved full-year cost outlook," chief executive Natascha Viljoen said.
Our read
Outlook: neutral. Newmont kept its production target unchanged, so the results do not shift expected gold supply.
What to watch
- Whether Newmont reaches its 5.9-million-ounce target in what it expects to be its strongest quarter.
- How much higher oil prices lift mining costs before year-end.
- Commercial production from the Tanami Expansion 2 project, now expected in the first half of 2027.
For information only, not investment advice.
Gold price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-11-01.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-10-22: Newmont reports third-quarter results and lowers its 2026 cost guidance.
Supply Drivers
Newmont kept its 2026 target of about 5.9 million ounces and expects its strongest output in the fourth quarter.
Mining Production
Output rose 7% quarter on quarter to 1.30 million ounces as Cadia recovered from a seismic event.
What could lift prices
- Newmont is holding its 2026 output target at about 5.9 million ounces rather than raising it.
- The company warns that rising oil prices and inflation could lift costs, and inflation tends to support gold.
What could weigh on prices
- The world's largest producer expects its strongest output of the year in the fourth quarter.
- Lower costs give miners room to keep producing even if gold prices fall further.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Australia | Medium | Cadia's recovery and stronger output at Boddington drove the quarter's production gain. |
| Mexico | Low | Peñasquito also produced more in the quarter. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Mining | Positive | Gold near $4,300 an ounce against costs near $1,500 leaves miners with wide margins. |
Who gains, who loses
- Newmont shareholders: They received about $1.5 billion through dividends and buybacks since the last results.
- Higher-cost gold miners: Newmont is cutting its costs while the gold price it receives is slipping.
Other ways this could play out
- If oil prices keep rising, fourth-quarter costs could come in above the new $1,520 guidance.
- If gold falls much further, profits would shrink even with output rising.
Price risks
- Gold prices are driven by interest rates and the dollar, not one miner's results.
- A sharp change in Fed rate expectations would matter far more for gold.
Historical comparison
- Third quarter of 2025: Newmont earned an adjusted $1.71 a share, against $2.20 this year.
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
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