Nickel rose to a two-week high on Thursday after Indonesia said it would act against companies linked to nickel ore trader Arif Kurniawan, a former Glencore trader. Shanghai nickel closed 5.3% higher, its biggest daily rise since January.
At a glance
- Three-month LME nickel rose as much as 3% to $16,255 a tonne, its highest since October 22.
- Indonesia's forest-area task force may impose fines, recover assets and refer any criminal conduct for prosecution.
- Indonesian producers already face sulphuric acid shortages and tighter ore quotas this year.
Background
Indonesia is the world's largest nickel producer, and its government controls output through mining quotas and permits. Its Forest Area Order and Enforcement Task Force (Satgas PKH) enforces rules on mining in forest land. Three-month nickel on the London Metal Exchange is the global benchmark price.
What happened
Three-month nickel on the London Metal Exchange rose as much as 3% to $16,255 a tonne on Thursday, its highest since October 22, Reuters reported. It was up 2.2% at $16,125 by 1010 GMT.
In Shanghai, the most traded nickel contract closed 5.3% higher at 122,550 yuan a tonne, also a two-week high, after its biggest daily rise since January.
Why nickel rose
Indonesia's forest-area task force said it would act against companies owned by or linked to Arif Kurniawan for operating illegally in forest areas, after finding possible irregularities in licensing and permits. A spokesperson confirmed that Kurniawan, a former Glencore trader, was the person first identified as "AK".
The task force has begun taking control of affected forest land and may impose fines, recover assets and refer any criminal conduct for prosecution, Mining.com.au reported. It has not named the companies or the area of land involved, and authorities have not alleged any link to Glencore.
What it means
The move adds to supply worries in Indonesia. Producers there have already faced rising costs from sulphuric acid shortages and tighter ore mining quotas this year, which prompted coordinated output cuts, Reuters reported.
Other metals also rose. LME aluminium gained 1.6% to $3,096.50 a tonne and zinc 1.2% to $3,851, helped by a weaker dollar.
Our read
Outlook: bullish. Indonesia's crackdown on a major ore trader's network adds to supply worries in the top producing country.
What to watch
- Which companies and concessions the task force names.
- Whether the crackdown disrupts ore supply to Indonesian smelters.
- Indonesia's 2027 mining quota approvals.
For information only, not investment advice.
Nickel price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-11-07.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-11-05: Nickel hits a two-week high after Indonesia moves against firms linked to Arif Kurniawan.
Supply Drivers
Acid shortages and tighter ore quotas have already prompted output cuts in Indonesia.
Government Policies
Indonesia's forest task force is acting against mining firms linked to Arif Kurniawan.
Mining Production
Any disruption to the network's concessions could cut nickel ore supply.
What could lift prices
- Indonesia's crackdown could disrupt nickel ore supply.
- Producers already face acid shortages and tighter ore quotas.
What could weigh on prices
- Authorities have not named the firms or concessions, so the supply effect is unclear.
- Indonesia's energy minister says the market has a surplus of nearly 800,000 tonnes.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Indonesia | High | The world's largest nickel producer is cracking down on a major ore trader's network. |
| China | Medium | Shanghai nickel had its biggest daily rise since January. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Mining | Negative | Firms linked to Kurniawan face fines, asset recovery and loss of forest land. |
Who gains, who loses
- Nickel producers outside Indonesia: Higher prices lift their revenue.
- Companies linked to Arif Kurniawan: They face fines, asset recovery and loss of control of forest land.
Other ways this could play out
- If the crackdown cuts ore supply, nickel could extend its gains.
- If the effect proves limited, prices could ease back.
Price risks
- Indonesia's large surplus could weigh on prices again.
- A stronger dollar would make nickel dearer for other buyers.
Technical view
Price is mixed relative to its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, showing no clear trend alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
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