Pan American Silver cut its 2026 gold production forecast to 660,000-680,000 ounces from 700,000-750,000. It also expects silver output at the low end of its 25-27 million ounce range, after unplanned downtime at Huaron.
At a glance
- Third-quarter net earnings more than doubled to $357 million from $169 million, on a realised silver price of $63.74 an ounce.
- The company raised its gold cost forecast to $2,000-2,150 an ounce from $1,700-1,850.
- Silver all-in sustaining costs fell to $11.21 an ounce in the quarter from $15.43 a year earlier.
Background
Pan American Silver mines silver and gold in Canada, Mexico, Peru, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile and Argentina. Guidance is a company's own forecast of output and costs. All-in sustaining cost is a measure of what it costs to produce an ounce, including the spending needed to keep a mine running. A grinding mill crushes ore so the metal can be recovered.
What happened
Pan American Silver said on November 4 that it now expects 660,000-680,000 ounces of gold in 2026, down from 700,000-750,000, in its third-quarter results.
Silver guidance stays at 25-27 million ounces, but output should land at the low end. Even 25 million ounces would top the 22.8 million ounces produced in 2025, Mining Journal reported.
Third-quarter silver output rose to 6.07 million ounces from 5.46 million. Gold output fell to 167,900 ounces from 183,500.
Why the forecasts changed
On silver, the company needs unplanned downtime at Huaron in the fourth quarter to repair the primary grinding mill foundation. A higher ratio of gold to silver at Cerro Moro also trims output.
On gold, Jacobina in Brazil is taking measures on seismicity and after a technical inspection by Brazil's National Mining Agency. Lower grades at El Peñon, rain and leach pad timing at Shahuindo, and delayed access to richer stopes at Timmins add to the shortfall.
Costs rose as a result. The company raised its gold all-in sustaining cost forecast to $2,000-2,150 an ounce from $1,700-1,850, citing labour, consumables, development, currency and energy.
What it means
Silver is carrying the company. Net earnings more than doubled to $357 million from $169 million, and adjusted earnings rose to $287 million from $180 million, as the realised silver price reached $63.74 an ounce against $39.08.
That price is well above the $51.76 at which spot silver traded on Friday, so fourth-quarter revenue per ounce would be lower if prices stay there. The Silver Institute forecasts a 2026 market deficit of 46.3 million ounces, Mining Journal reported. For Indian silver buyers, one producer's change is small, and prices will still follow the dollar and the Fed.
Our read
Outlook: neutral. Slightly lower output at one large producer tightens supply a little, but rate-rise bets are the bigger force on silver.
What to watch
- How long the Huaron repair takes in the fourth quarter.
- Regulatory progress at Jacobina in Brazil.
- Whether silver holds above $50 an ounce.
For information only, not investment advice.
Silver price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-11-10.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-11-04: Pan American Silver reports third-quarter results and revises its 2026 guidance.
Supply Drivers
Silver output should still rise from 22.8 million ounces in 2025 to at least 25 million ounces.
Inflation
Labour, consumables, currency and energy costs lifted the gold cost forecast to $2,000-2,150 an ounce.
Mining Production
Unplanned downtime at Huaron and a shift to more gold at Cerro Moro put silver output at the low end of guidance.
What could lift prices
- Unplanned downtime trims 2026 output at a major producer.
- The Silver Institute forecasts a 46.3 million ounce market deficit in 2026.
What could weigh on prices
- Pan American's silver output is still set to rise from 2025.
- Spot silver at about $51.76 sits well below the quarter's realised price.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil | High | Jacobina's regulator inspection and seismicity measures drive the gold forecast cut. |
| Canada | Medium | Delayed access to higher-grade stopes hurt output at Timmins. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Mining | Neutral | Higher silver prices lifted profit, while gold costs rose. |
Who gains, who loses
- Pan American Silver shareholders: The company returned $300 million through buybacks and dividends in the quarter.
- Pan American's gold operations: The company raised the segment's cost forecast by about $300 an ounce.
Other ways this could play out
- If the Huaron repair finishes on time, silver output should still reach about 25 million ounces.
- If Jacobina's measures last longer, gold output and costs could disappoint again.
Price risks
- Further seismicity or regulatory steps could limit Jacobina's output.
- Lower silver prices would reduce earnings in the fourth quarter.
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
Brazil
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