Sibanye-Stillwater has cut its 2026 forecast for its US platinum group metals operations to 245,000-255,000 ounces, from 280,000-300,000 ounces, after a five-week strike in Montana. It also raised its cost guidance, with staffing about 25% below plan.
At a glance
- US output fell 19% from a year earlier to 59,417 ounces in the September quarter.
- Full-year all-in sustaining costs are now forecast at $1,700-1,760 an ounce, up from $1,520-1,580.
- Sibanye kept its southern African PGM guidance of 1.65-1.75 million ounces despite a 10% fall in quarterly output.
Background
Platinum group metals (PGMs) include platinum and palladium. Sibanye-Stillwater's US operations are the Stillwater mine and the Columbus metallurgical complex in Montana, and they produce mostly palladium. All-in sustaining cost (AISC) is a miner's cost per ounce, including the spending needed to keep mines running.
What happened
Sibanye-Stillwater now expects its US operations to produce 245,000-255,000 ounces of platinum group metals in 2026, down from 280,000-300,000 ounces, it said in a third-quarter update on Thursday. The cut is as much as 15%, MINING.COM reported.
US production fell 19% year on year to 59,417 ounces in the September quarter, and all-in sustaining costs rose 39% to $1,617 an ounce. Sales fell 7% to 72,514 ounces as concentrate inventories were processed during the strike.
Why the forecast fell
The strike began on September 3 at the Stillwater mine and the Columbus metallurgical complex. It ended in early October after workers ratified a new collective bargaining agreement, MiningMX reported.
Labour attrition rose during the wage talks, leaving staffing about 25% below the workforce planned for mechanised mining in 2027. Sibanye said the fourth quarter will focus on rebuilding work teams and restoring production.
Full-year all-in sustaining costs are now forecast at $1,700-1,760 an ounce, up from $1,520-1,580, excluding US manufacturing tax credits.
What it means
Chief executive Richard Stewart said the multi-year wage agreements support the long-term sustainability of the US operations. Sibanye targets output of about 410,000 ounces a year and costs of about $1,000 an ounce by the end of 2028.
Southern African PGM output fell 10% to 458,202 ounces, but Sibanye kept its full-year guidance there. Higher metal prices lifted group adjusted EBITDA 9% to 10.8 billion rand.
Our read
Outlook: bullish. Lower US output removes some platinum group metals supply this year.
What to watch
- Fourth-quarter output as Sibanye rebuilds its US work teams.
- Fourth-quarter sales, which Sibanye says will show the strike's full impact.
- A decision on starting the Keliber lithium refinery in Finland.
For information only, not investment advice.
Platinum price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-11-07.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-09-03: The strike begins at the Stillwater mine and Columbus metallurgical complex.
- 2026-11-05: Sibanye-Stillwater cuts its 2026 US PGM forecast.
Supply Drivers
A five-week strike and staff losses cut production at the Stillwater mine in Montana.
Inflation
US all-in sustaining costs are now forecast at $1,700-1,760 an ounce.
Mining Production
Sibanye's US PGM output for 2026 will be up to 15% lower than its earlier forecast.
What could lift prices
- Sibanye's US PGM output for 2026 will be up to 15% lower than planned.
- US staffing remains about 25% below plan.
What could weigh on prices
- Workers have returned under a new multi-year agreement.
- Sibanye kept its southern African PGM guidance unchanged.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| United States | High | The strike hit Sibanye's Stillwater mine and Columbus complex in Montana. |
| South Africa | Medium | Southern African PGM output fell 10% in the quarter. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| PGM Mining | Negative | Output fell and costs rose at Sibanye's US operations. |
Who gains, who loses
- Other PGM producers: Lower Stillwater output removes some supply this year.
- Sibanye-Stillwater shareholders: US costs per ounce are rising while output falls.
Other ways this could play out
- If Sibanye rebuilds its workforce quickly, US output could recover in 2027.
- If staffing stays short, the recovery could be delayed.
Price risks
- A faster recovery at Stillwater would add supply.
- Higher output from southern Africa could offset the US shortfall.
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
United States
South Africa