South Africa's mining production fell 12.7% year on year in August, Statistics South Africa said, with platinum group metals, coal and iron ore the biggest drags. PGM output alone dropped 22.5%.
At a glance
- Seasonally adjusted output fell 5.4% from July, after a 1.9% drop the month before.
- Mineral sales at current prices fell 15.1% year on year, led by a 48.6% fall in gold sales.
- Iron ore production was down 16.2% and coal 11.7%.
Background
South Africa is the world's largest producer of platinum and a major supplier of palladium, rhodium, chrome, manganese and iron ore. Mining is a big source of its exports and jobs, so the monthly Stats SA figures are closely watched by markets and the rand.
What happened
Mining production fell 12.7% year on year in August, Statistics South Africa reported on Tuesday, Mining Weekly said. Platinum group metals made the biggest negative contribution, with output down 22.5%, taking 6.1 percentage points off the total.
Coal production fell 11.7%, cutting 3 percentage points, and iron ore output fell 16.2%, cutting 2.4 points.
A weakening trend
On a seasonally adjusted basis, output fell 5.4% from July, after falls of 1.9% in July and a rise of 0.4% in June. In the three months to the end of August, seasonally adjusted production was 5.2% lower than in the previous three months, with PGMs down 14.4%.
Mineral sales at current prices fell 15.1% year on year in August. Gold sales dropped 48.6%, iron ore 23%, PGMs 7.5% and coal 7.8%.
What it means
Lower PGM output from South Africa tightens supply of platinum, palladium and rhodium, since the country is the largest source of those metals. The weak figures also point to pressure on mining's contribution to South Africa's economy.
Our read
Outlook: bullish. Lower output from the world's largest platinum producer tightens supply, though one month of data has a limited effect on prices.
What to watch
- September mining data from Stats SA.
- Whether PGM output recovers in the coming months.
- The effect of weaker mining on South Africa's growth and the rand.
For information only, not investment advice.
Platinum price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-10-16.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-06: Seasonally adjusted mining output rises 0.4% month on month.
- 2026-07: Output falls 1.9% month on month.
- 2026-08: Output falls 5.4% month on month and 12.7% year on year.
Supply Drivers
Lower South African output reduces global supply of platinum group metals.
Mining Production
PGM output fell 22.5% year on year in August and 14.4% over three months.
What could lift prices
- Lower PGM supply from South Africa can support platinum and palladium prices.
What could weigh on prices
- Mineral sales fell 15.1% year on year.
- Output has fallen for two months in a row.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| South Africa | High | Mining output fell sharply, led by platinum group metals. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| PGM Mining | Negative | PGM production fell 22.5% year on year. |
| Iron Ore Mining | Negative | Iron ore output fell 16.2%. |
Who gains, who loses
- South African miners: Production and sales fell sharply in August.
Other ways this could play out
- If PGM output stays low, platinum and palladium supply could tighten further.
- If output recovers in September, August may prove a one-off dip.
Price risks
- Power, logistics and safety issues can disrupt South African mining.
- Weaker mining could weigh on the rand.
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
Related
South Africa