TD Cowen named Barrick Mining and Equinox Gold as top picks, setting a $59 Barrick target (38% upside) and a C$20 Equinox target (17% upside) on cash flow and growth-project catalysts.
At a glance
- TD Cowen set a $59 price target on Barrick Mining Corporation, implying a 38% return from its $42.69 close, citing strong free cash flow and a planned 2027 IPO of its North American assets.
- Equinox Gold received a C$20 target, a 17% implied return, on the strength of its Orla Mining acquisition and permitting progress at its Castle Mountain project.
- TD Cowen also named HudBay Minerals (C$43 target, 15% implied return) and raised its Royal Gold target to $315 from $289, implying a 26% return.
- Barrick's projected gold production is set to climb 16% to 3.7 million ounces in 2027, alongside a 7% rise in copper output to 225,000 tonnes.
What happened
TD Cowen named Barrick Mining Corporation and Equinox Gold among its top mining stock picks in a note published September 22, 2026, alongside HudBay Minerals and Royal Gold. Analyst Steven Green set a $59 price target on Barrick, implying a 38% return from Monday's New York close of $42.69, citing improving operational execution, roughly $8 billion in expected consolidated free cash flow over the coming year (an 11% yield), and a planned initial public offering of Barrick's North American assets targeted for early 2027. Analyst Wayne Lam set a C$20 target on Equinox Gold, a 17% return from its C$17.09 close, pointing to the company's acquisition of Orla Mining and progress across several development projects.
The details
TD Cowen's picks lean on two different growth stories rather than a single gold-price call. For Barrick, the case is about converting scale into cash: analyst Steven Green points to roughly $8 billion in expected consolidated free cash flow over the coming year, an 11% yield against the current share price, alongside the recently completed Fourmile transaction with Newmont and a planned initial public offering of Barrick's North American assets targeted for early 2027. If that IPO proceeds as planned, it would let public markets separately value a business segment TD Cowen believes is currently underappreciated inside the consolidated group. Layered on top is straightforward production growth -- Barrick's gold output is projected to climb 16% to 3.7 million ounces in 2027, with copper output rising 7% to 225,000 tonnes, giving the stock exposure to two metals rather than one.
Equinox Gold's case is built on integration and permitting execution rather than free cash flow. Its acquisition of Orla Mining adds scale and three flagship Canadian assets, while analyst Wayne Lam flags progress on US-FAST 41 permitting for the Castle Mountain project, a potential fourth-quarter restart at the Los Filos mine in Mexico, and ongoing construction at the South Railroad and Valentine projects. If those milestones land on schedule, TD Cowen projects Equinox's gold production jumping 40% to 1.27 million ounces in 2027, with EBITDA surging an estimated 62% to $3.48 billion -- a much steeper growth curve than Barrick's, which is also why the implied return on Equinox's target (17%) is smaller than Barrick's (38%): Equinox's stock already prices in more of that growth, and its multi-project execution risk is correspondingly higher.
Both picks are also implicitly a broader read on gold miners as a group: TD Cowen widened its list to four names, also including HudBay Minerals and Royal Gold, whose target it raised to $315 from $289, suggesting the firm sees value across the sector rather than in a single standout name.
Why it matters
Analyst price targets on individual gold and copper miners are a read on execution and project pipelines specifically, distinct from the spot-price moves that dominate day-to-day gold coverage -- useful context for anyone assessing mining-equity exposure as a way to play the metals cycle rather than holding bullion directly.
Our read
Outlook: bullish. TD Cowen's targets reflect genuine, specific operational catalysts at both companies rather than a broad sector call, but the implied returns depend on execution of projects and deals still in progress, including an unclosed IPO and multiple permitting and construction milestones.
What to watch
- Progress on Barrick's planned IPO of its North American assets, targeted for early 2027.
- US-FAST 41 permitting milestones and any fourth-quarter restart decision at Equinox's Los Filos mine.
- Construction progress at Equinox's South Railroad and Valentine projects.
- Whether Barrick's copper and gold output actually reach the projected 2027 levels of 225,000 tonnes and 3.7 million ounces.
For information only, not investment advice.
Gold price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-10-03.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-09-22: TD Cowen publishes a note naming Barrick, Equinox Gold, HudBay Minerals and Royal Gold as top mining stock picks.
Mining Production
Barrick's gold production is projected to climb 16% to 3.7 million ounces in 2027 alongside a 7% rise in copper output to 225,000 tonnes, while Equinox Gold's production is projected to jump 40% to 1.27 million ounces in the same year, driven by the Orla Mining integration and restarts or ramp-ups at Los Filos, South Railroad and Valentine.
What could lift prices
- Barrick's roughly $8 billion in expected consolidated free cash flow, an 11% yield, gives it capacity to fund growth or return capital to shareholders.
- Equinox Gold's projected 40% production jump and 62% EBITDA surge in 2027 reflect a genuine growth inflection if its projects execute on schedule.
- TD Cowen's decision to name four gold and copper miners as top picks, not just one, suggests the firm sees value broadly across the sector.
What could weigh on prices
- Barrick's planned North American asset IPO is not yet completed, and its early-2027 timeline could slip.
- Equinox's growth case depends on multiple moving parts landing on schedule -- Castle Mountain permitting, a Los Filos restart, and construction progress at two other projects -- any one of which could slip and dent the projected 40% production jump.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Canada | Medium | Equinox Gold's growth plan centers partly on Canadian assets gained through the Orla Mining acquisition, plus its Valentine project in Newfoundland. |
| United States | Medium | Barrick's planned IPO of its North American assets and Equinox's Castle Mountain permitting both involve US operations. |
| Mexico | Low | Equinox's potential fourth-quarter restart at Los Filos is a Mexican asset. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Mining | Positive | TD Cowen's bullish targets reflect confidence in production growth and cash generation across the gold-mining sector. |
Who gains, who loses
- Barrick and Equinox Gold shareholders: TD Cowen's targets imply meaningful further upside, 38% and 17% respectively, if the underlying catalysts play out.
- Investors buying these stocks near or above TD Cowen's targets: A price target is not a guarantee, and any shortfall against the production or cash-flow assumptions behind it would leave less room for further gains than the note implies.
Other ways this could play out
- If gold or copper prices fall meaningfully from current levels, the free-cash-flow assumptions behind Barrick's target would need to be revised down.
- A delay at any of Equinox's four moving project pieces -- Castle Mountain, Los Filos, South Railroad, Valentine -- could push its 2027 production target into 2028 or beyond.
- A stronger-than-expected outcome from Barrick's IPO could unlock more value than TD Cowen's current target assumes, if public markets value the North American assets at a premium to their contribution inside the consolidated group.
Price risks
- A pullback in gold or copper prices would reduce the free-cash-flow and EBITDA assumptions behind both companies' price targets.
- Project execution delays at either company, particularly Equinox's multi-project pipeline, could push back the production growth TD Cowen is pricing in.
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
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