TD Securities forecasts rhodium's first surplus since 2022 by 2027, with prices projected to fall from about $9,000/oz to $7,600 in 2027 and $6,500 in 2028 as EVs curb autocatalyst demand.
At a glance
- TD Securities forecasts rhodium will move into a 20,000-ounce surplus in 2027, its first surplus since 2022, after four straight years of deficit.
- TD projects rhodium prices falling from around $9,000 an ounce currently to $7,600 in 2027 and $6,500 in 2028.
- The surplus is driven by rising mine and recycled rhodium supply combined with flat-to-declining consumption, primarily from autocatalysts.
- Softening autocatalyst demand reflects electric vehicles taking a growing share of the auto market, reducing the internal combustion engine vehicle sales that rhodium demand has historically tracked.
What happened
TD Securities forecasts the rhodium market will swing into its first surplus since 2022 by 2027, ending four consecutive years of deficits, as softening autocatalyst demand outpaces rising mine and recycled supply. The bank's commodity strategy team projects a 20,000-ounce surplus in 2027 and expects rhodium prices to fall from around $9,000 an ounce currently to $7,600 in 2027 and $6,500 in 2028. Autocatalysts, which convert harmful engine emissions into less toxic gases, account for the large majority of rhodium consumption, and that demand has flattened as electric vehicles take a growing share of the global automotive market, reducing the internal combustion engine vehicle sales rhodium demand has traditionally tracked.
The details
Rhodium's price story over the past several years has been almost entirely an autocatalyst story, and TD's forecast is really a bet on how fast that single demand channel keeps shrinking relative to supply. Autocatalysts convert harmful pollutants in vehicle exhaust into less toxic gases, and because rhodium does that job more effectively than platinum or palladium for certain emissions, gasoline-engine vehicles have been rhodium's dominant source of demand for decades. Four straight years of deficit reflect a period when that demand outpaced available mine and recycled supply; TD's forecast for a 20,000-ounce surplus in 2027 says the balance is about to tip the other way.
The mechanism is straightforward on the demand side: every electric vehicle sold in place of a gasoline vehicle is a vehicle that needs no autocatalyst at all, so as EVs take a growing share of global auto sales, the pool of vehicles that actually consume rhodium shrinks. TD explicitly flags this shift as the reason autocatalyst demand has flattened. On the supply side, TD's forecast implies rising mine output and recycled supply, the latter typically coming from scrapped catalytic converters, a supply source that itself depends on the size of the existing gasoline-vehicle fleet still being retired.
The one meaningful caveat TD builds into its own forecast is timing: slower-than-anticipated EV adoption is specifically cited as a reason the decline shouldn't turn into a 'prolonged price collapse.' That's a genuinely important qualifier, because it means TD's own model is sensitive to how fast the EV transition actually proceeds, not just to the direction of the trend. A materially faster or slower EV adoption curve than TD currently assumes would move the timing and depth of the projected price declines in either direction.
Why it matters
Rhodium is one of the more thinly traded and volatile precious metals, and a shift from a multi-year structural deficit to a forecast surplus is a meaningful directional call for anyone with exposure to platinum-group-metals miners or autocatalyst-linked demand, distinct from the platinum and palladium dynamics this site covers more frequently.
Our read
Outlook: bearish. TD's forecast describes a structural shift from deficit to surplus driven by a demand trend (EV adoption displacing gasoline vehicles) that is directionally clear even if its exact pace remains uncertain, pointing toward lower rhodium prices over the 2027-2028 forecast horizon.
What to watch
- The actual pace of global EV adoption relative to TD's assumptions, the key variable behind the surplus timing.
- Mine and recycled rhodium supply figures as they're reported, to confirm whether supply is rising as TD's forecast assumes.
- Rhodium spot prices for early signs of the forecast decline beginning to play out.
- Any revisions to TD's forecast as EV adoption data evolves.
For information only, not investment advice.
Rhodium price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-10-03.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2022: Rhodium last saw a market surplus before four consecutive years of deficit began.
- 2027: TD forecasts a 20,000-ounce rhodium surplus, the first since 2022, with prices projected to fall to $7,600/oz.
- 2028: TD projects rhodium prices falling further to $6,500/oz.
Demand Drivers
Autocatalysts, which account for the large majority of rhodium consumption, have seen demand flatten as electric vehicles take a growing share of global auto sales, directly shrinking the pool of gasoline-engine vehicles that require rhodium-containing emissions-control systems.
Supply Drivers
TD's forecast for a 2027 surplus assumes rising mine output alongside growing recycled supply, the latter sourced mainly from scrapped catalytic converters, even as demand growth stalls.
What could lift prices
- TD explicitly notes that slower-than-anticipated EV adoption should temper the pace of decline, reducing the likelihood of a prolonged price collapse.
- Rhodium has only just ended a four-year deficit streak; the forecast surplus is modest in absolute terms (20,000 ounces) rather than a dramatic oversupply.
What could weigh on prices
- TD projects a clear, multi-year price decline from about $9,000/oz currently to $7,600 in 2027 and $6,500 in 2028.
- The core demand driver, autocatalyst use in gasoline vehicles, faces a structural, one-directional decline as EV adoption continues even if its pace varies.
- Rising mine and recycled supply compounding with softening demand is a double-sided pressure on price.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| South Africa | Medium | South Africa is the world's dominant rhodium mining country, making it the primary supply-side party affected by the forecast price direction. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Automotive Emissions Systems | Neutral | Falling rhodium prices would lower catalytic converter input costs for automakers, though the shift is driven by declining internal-combustion vehicle sales rather than a change in emissions-system technology. |
| PGM Mining | Negative | A forecast shift from deficit to surplus and falling prices would pressure revenue for rhodium-producing PGM miners. |
Who gains, who loses
- Automakers still producing gasoline vehicles with rhodium-based catalytic converters: Falling rhodium prices would lower a real input cost for internal-combustion vehicle production.
- Rhodium-producing PGM miners: A forecast shift to surplus and declining prices would pressure revenue for companies whose output includes rhodium.
Other ways this could play out
- If EV adoption accelerates faster than TD's current assumptions, the demand decline and resulting price falls could happen sooner or more sharply than forecast.
- If EV adoption stalls further than already anticipated, the deficit could persist longer and delay or shrink the projected 2027 surplus.
- A supply-side disruption at major rhodium-producing mines could offset the demand-side surplus pressure regardless of the EV trend.
Price risks
- A faster EV adoption curve than currently assumed could accelerate rhodium's demand decline and price falls beyond TD's current forecast.
- A supply disruption at major PGM mining operations could delay or reduce the forecast surplus regardless of the demand trend.
Technical view
Price is mixed relative to its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, showing no clear trend alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
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