Chinese tungsten concentrate prices have fallen nearly 68% from a record set in March, according to Shanghai Metals Market data. Weaker demand from end users and rising inventories at smelters are pushing prices down after a run fuelled by China's export controls.
At a glance
- Ammonium paratungstate (APT), an intermediate product, fell 67% from its March peak to ¥500,000 a tonne.
- Tungsten powder fell 66.46% to ¥805 a kilogram.
- Ample fourth-quarter mining quotas are adding to supply, SMM says.
Background
Tungsten is used in cutting tools, heavy machinery and defence equipment, and China dominates its supply. China's tighter export controls drove prices to records earlier this year. Prices are quoted per standard tonne of concentrate in China.
What happened
The average price of 65% wolframite concentrate fell to ¥337,000 per standard tonne on October 12, according to Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), Mining.com.au reported. That is down 67.92% from a record of ¥1.05 million per standard tonne on March 12, 2026.
Prices across the processing chain have followed. APT, an intermediate product, fell 67% from its March peak to ¥500,000 a tonne, and tungsten powder fell 66.46% to ¥805 a kilogram.
Why prices fell
Earlier strength came partly from supply constraints and China's tighter control of tungsten exports. SMM's latest commentary suggests weaker end-use demand is now becoming an important force in setting prices.
On the supply side, maintenance shutdowns at some smelters have led to a build-up of raw material, smelters' own inventories remain high, and fourth-quarter mining quotas are relatively ample. Some companies need to cut stock and free up cash. "These intertwined factors are collectively exerting pressure on tungsten prices," SMM said.
What it means
For companies developing new tungsten projects outside China, the fall matters because their economics were built on higher prices. Tungsten can stay strategically critical without commanding record prices indefinitely.
Our read
Outlook: bearish. Weak end-use demand, high inventories and ample mining quotas point to continued pressure on tungsten prices.
What to watch
- Whether lower prices revive downstream buying.
- Changes to China's tungsten export controls or mining quotas.
- Funding decisions on tungsten projects outside China.
For information only, not investment advice.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-03-12: Chinese tungsten concentrate hits a record ¥1.05 million per standard tonne.
- 2026-10-12: The price falls to ¥337,000, down 67.92% from the record.
Demand Drivers
Weaker end-use demand is now the main force on tungsten prices, SMM says.
Supply Drivers
Ample fourth-quarter mining quotas in China add to supply.
Inventory Drivers
High smelter inventories and a raw material build-up are weighing on prices.
What could lift prices
- Lower prices could revive buying by downstream users.
What could weigh on prices
- Inventories at smelters remain high.
- Fourth-quarter mining quotas are relatively ample.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| China | High | It dominates tungsten supply and sets the benchmark prices. |
| Australia | Low | Its tungsten developers face tougher project economics. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Critical Minerals Mining | Negative | Tungsten producers and developers face sharply lower prices. |
Who gains, who loses
- Tungsten users: They pay far less than at the March peak.
- Tungsten project developers: Their project economics were built on higher prices.
Other ways this could play out
- If lower prices revive demand, prices could stabilise.
- If inventories keep building, the decline could continue.
Price risks
- Chinese export policy can move tungsten prices sharply.
- Defence demand could tighten supply again.
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