Wildcat Resources' definitive feasibility study gives its Tabba Tabba lithium project in Australia an after-tax value of A$1.5 billion. The plan reaches full output four years sooner than last year's study, and Wildcat says it is funded through to a final investment decision.
At a glance
- The mine would cost A$774 million to build and pay that back in 3.8 years.
- Output would reach 600,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate a year by the third year.
- Wildcat has about $76 million in cash, which it says covers work up to a final investment decision.
Background
Spodumene is the hard-rock mineral that most Australian lithium comes from. Miners crush and concentrate it, then sell the concentrate to refiners that turn it into battery chemicals. A definitive feasibility study (DFS) is the detailed engineering and cost study that comes just before a decision to build, and net present value (NPV) is the project's estimated worth today.
What happened
Wildcat Resources' DFS for the Tabba Tabba project shows an after-tax NPV of A$1.5 billion and an internal rate of return of 28.4%, Mining Weekly reported on October 26. The plan is based on spodumene concentrate grading 5.5% lithium oxide from the Leia and Luke orebodies.
Output would ramp up to 600,000 tonnes a year in the third year of operation. That is four years earlier than last year's prefeasibility study, which brings forward about 1 million tonnes of production and about A$1 billion of extra after-tax cash flow by 2035.
The numbers behind it
The project would cost A$774 million before production and pay that back in 3.8 years. At the study's base-case price of $1,500 a tonne of concentrate, it would generate about A$3.53 billion of free cash flow over its life, or A$309 million a year.
The plan rests on a probable ore reserve of 48.3 million tonnes grading 0.97% lithium oxide, 79% of it from the Leia open pit and the rest from underground. Test work recovered 75.7% of the lithium, though the financial model uses a more cautious 74%.
What comes next
Detailed design and engineering have started as Wildcat works towards a final investment decision. "With a strong cash position of $76-million following our recent capital raise, we are fully funded through to a FID on this project," managing director AJ Saverimutto said. The company has not yet given a date for that decision or for first production.
Our read
Outlook: neutral. Tabba Tabba could add significant lithium supply, but it has no investment decision or start date yet.
What to watch
- A date for Wildcat's final investment decision on Tabba Tabba.
- How Wildcat plans to fund the A$774 million construction cost.
- Spodumene prices compared with the study's $1,500-a-tonne base case.
For information only, not investment advice.
Lithium price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-11-01.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-10-26: Wildcat Resources releases the Tabba Tabba definitive feasibility study.
Supply Drivers
Tabba Tabba could add 600,000 tonnes a year of spodumene concentrate once ramped up.
Mining Production
The faster ramp-up brings forward about 1 million tonnes of concentrate compared with last year's plan.
What could lift prices
- Tabba Tabba still needs an investment decision and A$774 million of funding.
- New mines like this take years to build, so near-term supply is unchanged.
What could weigh on prices
- A large new Australian mine could add 600,000 tonnes a year of concentrate.
- Faster ramp-up plans mean new supply could arrive sooner than previously expected.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Australia | Medium | A potential large new lithium mine moves closer to a build decision. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Lithium Mining | Positive | The study improves Tabba Tabba's value, returns and payback compared with last year. |
Who gains, who loses
- Wildcat Resources shareholders: The study improves the project's value and shortens its payback period.
- Other lithium developers seeking funding: They compete with Tabba Tabba for the same investors and buyers.
Other ways this could play out
- If Wildcat secures funding, Tabba Tabba could move to a final investment decision.
- If spodumene prices stay below $1,500 a tonne, the project's returns would be lower than the study shows.
Price risks
- Lithium prices depend on large producers and Chinese demand, not one project study.
- A study is not a build decision, so supply from Tabba Tabba is not certain.
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
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