The World Bank expects copper prices to stay near record highs next year, raising its 2027 forecast by 18% from April to $13,000 a tonne. New mines are struggling to keep up with demand from power grids and data centres.
At a glance
- The 2027 forecast is only 1.5% below the $13,200 average the bank now expects for 2026.
- Gold is forecast to average $4,250 an ounce in 2027, down 7.6% from about $4,600 this year.
- The bank also raised its 2027 tin forecast 22% to $45,000 a tonne and zinc 13% to $3,100.
Background
The World Bank publishes its Commodity Markets Outlook twice a year, in April and October. Its forecasts are calendar-year average prices. Copper is used in power networks, buildings, electronics and electric vehicles, and new mines often take more than a decade to develop.
What happened
The World Bank raised its 2027 copper price forecast by 18% from April to $13,000 a tonne, or about $5.90 a pound, in its October outlook released on Wednesday, MINING.COM reported. That is only 1.5% below the $13,200 average it now expects for 2026.
"Commodity markets are being hit by several major shocks at once," said Ayhan Kose, the bank's deputy chief economist, pointing to higher energy costs and trade disruptions.
Why copper stays high
Mine supply growth is expected to stay weak, as Indonesia deals with weather-related disruptions and Chile faces operating constraints and falling ore grades. Demand should strengthen in 2027 and 2028 through investment in power networks, data centres and electric vehicles.
Global copper demand actually slipped in the first half, the bank found. Mine disruptions and metal moving into US warehouses ahead of possible tariffs tightened supply elsewhere.
Other metals
Gold is forecast to average $4,250 an ounce in 2027, down 7.6% from this year's expected $4,600, as investment demand and central bank buying moderate. The bank kept its 2027 iron ore forecast at $95 a dry tonne, down from $98 this year, citing weak Chinese construction and new supply from Guinea's Simandou project.
Tin and zinc forecasts were raised, though both are still expected to fall about 11-12% from this year's averages. Cobalt and lithium prices fell 25% and 13% in the third quarter, and nickel is expected to be little changed next year.
Our read
Outlook: bullish. The World Bank expects tight mine supply to keep copper near record highs through 2027.
What to watch
- Whether US copper import tariffs take effect in January.
- Mine output in Indonesia and Chile.
- Demand from power networks and data centres in 2027.
For information only, not investment advice.
Copper price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-11-01.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-10-28: The World Bank releases its October Commodity Markets Outlook.
Supply Drivers
Weather disruptions in Indonesia and falling grades in Chile are holding back copper mine supply.
What could lift prices
- New copper mines take more than a decade to develop.
- Possible US tariffs in January could encourage more stockpiling.
What could weigh on prices
- Global copper demand slipped slightly in the first half.
- The bank expects its metals index to ease 3.3% in 2027.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Chile | Medium | Operating constraints and falling grades are limiting its copper output. |
| Indonesia | Medium | Weather-related disruptions are holding back mine supply. |
| United States | Medium | Possible copper import tariffs are drawing metal into US warehouses. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Copper Mining | Positive | High forecast prices support new mine financing. |
| Electrical | Negative | Grid builders face copper prices near record highs. |
Who gains, who loses
- Copper miners: Prices are forecast to stay near record highs through 2027.
- Copper-intensive manufacturers: Their raw material costs are set to stay high.
Other ways this could play out
- If US tariffs take effect in January, regional shortages could push prices higher.
- If supply recovers faster, prices could ease from current levels.
Price risks
- A global slowdown would cut copper demand.
- Trade restrictions on critical minerals are rising, with 147 measures through September.
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
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