Cochilco, Chile's state copper commission, expects the country's copper output to fall 8.4% to 4.94 million tonnes in 2026, down from its earlier forecast of 5.27 million. It raised its 2026 average price forecast to $6.18 a pound.
At a glance
- Cochilco sees Chilean output recovering only 3% to 5.08 million tonnes in 2027.
- Escondida, Codelco and Spence account for 77.3% of this year's net national decline.
- The 2027 price forecast rises to $5.95 a pound from $5.10.
Background
Chile produces more than a fifth of the world's mined copper, Bloomberg reported. Cochilco publishes supply and price forecasts each quarter. Ore grade is the share of copper in the rock; as grades fall, mines must process more rock to produce the same amount of metal. A refined surplus means supply of finished copper exceeds consumption.
What Cochilco said
Chile's copper production will fall 8.4% to 4.94 million tonnes this year, Cochilco said in its third-quarter copper market report. Its previous estimate was 5.27 million tonnes, Bloomberg reported.
Output in January to September was 3.63 million tonnes, 8.5% less than a year earlier. Cochilco expects a 3% recovery to 5.08 million tonnes in 2027, restoring about a third of this year's loss.
Why output is falling
Lower ore grades, maintenance and stoppages have reduced processing and copper recovery, Cochilco said. Escondida, Codelco and Spence explain 77.3% of the net national decline.
To meet its 2026 forecast, Chile must average about 434,000 tonnes a month in the fourth quarter. That is 7.6% above the average of the first nine months.
What it means for prices
Cochilco raised its average price forecast to $6.18 a pound for 2026 and $5.95 for 2027, from $5.95 and $5.10. It expects refined surpluses of only 0.5% of world consumption this year and 0.8% next year.
Executive vice president Claudia Rodríguez said the main support for prices is the limited response of mine output to growing demand. For copper users, including Indian wire and cable makers, the forecast points to a market with little spare supply.
Our read
Outlook: bullish. Chile's output is falling faster than expected, leaving only a small refined surplus to absorb further disruptions.
What to watch
- Chile's monthly copper output figures for October to December.
- Fourth-quarter production reports from Codelco and BHP Group.
- Cochilco's next quarterly forecast.
For information only, not investment advice.
Copper price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-11-01.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-10-30: Cochilco publishes its third-quarter copper market report.
Supply Drivers
World mine output is forecast to fall 0.6% this year before recovering 3.4% in 2027.
Mining Production
Chile's output is set to fall 8.4% this year because of lower ore grades, maintenance and stoppages.
Global Consumption
Cochilco expects refined copper demand to grow 1.5% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027.
What could lift prices
- Chile's output is falling faster than Cochilco previously expected.
- Refined surpluses are small, leaving little room for further disruptions.
What could weigh on prices
- Cochilco expects world mine output to recover 3.4% in 2027.
- Its forecasts imply a 3.7% fall in the average price between 2026 and 2027.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Chile | High | Lower output cuts export volumes from the world's largest copper producer. |
| China | Medium | China accounts for 57.3% of world copper consumption, Cochilco said. |
| India | Low | Indian copper users buy in a global market that Cochilco sees as tight. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Copper Mining | Negative | Chilean miners are producing less because of lower grades and stoppages. |
| Copper Smelting & Refining | Negative | Smelters face tighter supply of mine output. |
Who gains, who loses
- Copper producers outside Chile: Higher forecast prices could lift their revenue.
- Copper consumers: Tighter supply supports higher prices for wire and cable makers.
Other ways this could play out
- If Chile misses the 434,000-tonne monthly pace needed in the fourth quarter, output could fall below 4.94 million tonnes.
- If 2027 projects start on time, the recovery could ease prices as Cochilco expects.
Price risks
- Further accidents or weather disruptions could cut Chilean output again.
- Slower demand growth in China could widen the refined surplus.
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
China
India