China's copper smelters are on course for their weakest output growth since at least 2000, as ore and scrap shortages and falling acid prices squeeze them. Copper itself fell 1.8% on Monday on weak Chinese data.
At a glance
- Wood Mackenzie and Zijin Tianfeng Futures expect China's refined copper output to rise only 3% to 3.4% this year.
- Seven Chinese smelters plan 30 to 60 days of maintenance in October and November, cutting about 80,000 tonnes of supply.
- LME copper slid to $14,364 a tonne after China's August industrial profits grew just 4.2%.
Background
China makes more refined copper than any other country and is also its largest consumer. Smelters turn copper concentrate, the ore product mines ship, into pure metal, and they also melt down scrap. They earn part of their income from sulphuric acid, a by-product of smelting, so a fall in acid prices hurts their margins.
What happened
China's refined copper output is set to grow by only 3% to 3.4% this year, according to forecasts from Wood Mackenzie and Zijin Tianfeng Futures. Output grew 10.4% in 2025. A Reuters review of official records shows the 2026 pace would be the slowest since at least 2000.
Growth has already cooled. Output rose 4% in the first eight months of the year, and analysts expect the fourth quarter to run slower still.
Why smelters are slowing
The first problem is raw material. Mines are not producing enough copper concentrate to keep every smelter busy. A tax crackdown in China is also expected to reduce the supply of scrap copper, which smelters use as a second source of feed.
The second problem is money. Sulphuric acid prices fell 11% in September, cutting a revenue stream that helps smelters cover their costs. Seven smelters now plan 30 to 60 days of maintenance in October and November, which analysts estimate will remove about 80,000 tonnes of output.
What it means
Slower smelting in China tightens the supply of refined metal even when mine output is steady. That supports prices over time, because the world has fewer tonnes of usable copper to share.
Demand worries dominated trading on Monday, though. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell 1.8% to $14,364 a tonne, its lowest since September 17. China's industrial profits grew just 4.2% in August after 11.2% in July, while higher oil and a firm dollar added pressure. For Indian buyers, copper prices set in London flow directly into the cost of wire, cable and appliances.
Our read
Outlook: neutral. Slower smelting tightens refined supply, which supports copper over the coming months. Weak Chinese demand data and a firm dollar are pulling the other way in the short term.
What to watch
- Monthly Chinese refined copper output figures, to see whether the fourth-quarter slowdown deepens.
- Whether the October and November smelter maintenance goes ahead as planned.
- Sulphuric acid prices, which shape how much Chinese smelters are willing to produce.
For information only, not investment advice.
Copper price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-10-03.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-09-28: LME copper falls 1.8% to $14,364 a tonne after weak Chinese industrial profit data.
Demand Drivers
China's industrial profits grew only 4.2% in August, raising doubts about near-term copper demand.
Supply Drivers
A shortage of concentrate and less scrap after a tax crackdown are limiting how much Chinese smelters can process.
Refinery Output
Chinese refined output growth is slowing to 3% to 3.4% this year, from 10.4% in 2025.
What could lift prices
- About 80,000 tonnes of output will be lost to smelter maintenance in October and November.
- Less scrap feed after China's tax crackdown adds to the squeeze on refined supply.
What could weigh on prices
- Weak Chinese industrial profits point to softer demand from the world's biggest copper user.
- A firm dollar and higher oil are weighing on metals across the board.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| China | High | Its smelters face the slowest output growth since at least 2000. |
| India | Medium | LME prices feed directly into Indian costs for copper wire, cable and appliances. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Copper Smelting & Refining | Negative | Short feed and an 11% drop in acid prices are squeezing smelter margins. |
| Wire and Cable Manufacturing | Neutral | Tighter refined supply could raise costs later, though prices eased on Monday. |
Who gains, who loses
- Smelters outside China: Slower Chinese output leaves more room for their refined copper in the market.
- Chinese copper smelters: They face short feed, falling acid income and extended maintenance shutdowns.
Other ways this could play out
- If concentrate supply improves, Chinese smelters could restart faster and ease the refined squeeze.
- If Chinese demand weakens further, lower output may simply match lower consumption and leave prices flat.
Price risks
- Further weak Chinese data could push copper lower despite the supply squeeze.
- A falling dollar would lift copper faster than the neutral view assumes.
Historical comparison
- 2025: China's refined copper output grew 10.4%, more than three times this year's expected pace.
Technical view
Price is mixed relative to its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, showing no clear trend alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
China
India