Crisil Ratings expects Indian jewellery retailers' revenue to grow 21-23% this financial year, as gold prices average 25-27% higher than last year. Sales volumes are expected to fall 4-6% as price-sensitive buyers switch to lighter, lower-carat jewellery.
At a glance
- Investment demand for coins and bars, nearly 40% of overall demand, is expected to fall 4-5%.
- Operating margins are projected to ease to 8.5-8.7% from 9.3% last year as inventory gains taper.
- Store additions are expected to slow to 7-9% of the network over two years, from 12-15%.
Background
Crisil Ratings is an Indian credit rating agency. India's financial year runs from April to March, so this fiscal means 2026-27. Organised retailers are branded jewellery chains, as opposed to small independent jewellers. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point, so 60-80 basis points is 0.6-0.8 percentage points.
What happened
Crisil Ratings expects jewellery retail volumes to fall 4-6% this financial year, a slower decline than before, while revenue grows 21-23%, it said in a report on Thursday.
The revenue growth comes from gold prices, which Crisil expects to average 25-27% higher than last year. Investment demand for coins and bars, nearly 40% of overall demand, is likely to fall 4-5%.
Why volumes are falling
Crisil Ratings director Himank Sharma said demand indicators point to stabilisation rather than a broad recovery. Consumers remain price-sensitive and are shifting to lighter, lower-carat jewellery to manage costs.
Organised retailers should keep gaining market share as buyers move to trusted brands, Crisil said. Their exchange programmes and gold savings schemes should help.
What it means for retailers
Margins are likely to ease. Last year retailers gained from the rising value of their stock; as price gains slow, those gains will taper and promotion spending will rise. Crisil expects operating margins of 8.5-8.7%, down from 9.3%.
Higher gold prices also tie up more money in stock, adding to borrowings. Store openings are expected to slow to 7-9% of the network over the next two years, from 12-15%.
Crisil team leader Nishita Vora said credit profiles should stay resilient despite the higher working-capital needs.
Our read
Outlook: bearish. Crisil expects Indian jewellery volumes and coin and bar demand to fall this year.
What to watch
- Gold price movements, which Crisil says will drive the sector's performance.
- Changes in import duties and regulation.
- Festive and wedding season sales.
For information only, not investment advice.
Gold price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-11-07.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-11-05: Crisil Ratings publishes its jewellery retail outlook.
Demand Drivers
Jewellery volumes are expected to fall 4-6% and coin and bar demand 4-5% as prices rise.
Inventory Drivers
Higher gold prices raise the value of retailers' stock and their working-capital needs.
What could lift prices
- Retail jewellery revenue is still expected to grow 21-23%.
- Exchange programmes and gold savings schemes support demand.
What could weigh on prices
- Jewellery volumes are set to fall 4-6%.
- Coin and bar demand is expected to fall 4-5%.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| India | High | Crisil expects lower jewellery volumes but higher revenue for Indian retailers. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Jewellery | Neutral | Revenue is rising on prices while volumes and margins fall. |
Who gains, who loses
- Organised jewellery retailers: They are expected to keep gaining market share.
- Jewellery buyers: They are paying more and buying lighter, lower-carat pieces.
Other ways this could play out
- If gold prices keep rising, revenue could grow even as volumes fall further.
- If prices ease, volumes could recover but revenue growth would slow.
Price risks
- Changes in import duties could shift demand.
- Higher borrowing to fund stock raises retailers' costs.
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
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