Deutsche Bank says copper could climb more than 50% to $22,050 a tonne by the second quarter of 2027. Its reason is stockpiling: the US and China are locking away so much metal that other buyers are left fighting over what remains.
At a glance
- Deutsche Bank's metals research head Daniel Ghali sees copper reaching $22,050 a tonne by the second quarter of 2027.
- He estimates US and Chinese stockpiles will tie up 71% of global copper inventories by the end of this year.
- Copper freely available to other buyers could run out by the end of 2028 if stockpiling continues, the bank warns.
Background
Copper is priced on the London Metal Exchange (LME) in dollars per tonne. Prices depend not just on how much copper is mined, but on how much is actually available to buy. Metal held in government reserves or kept in one country by tariffs still exists, but factories elsewhere cannot easily get at it. That is the gap Deutsche Bank is pointing to.
What the bank expects
Deutsche Bank expects copper to reach $22,050 a tonne by the second quarter of 2027. That is more than 50% above the current LME price of about $14,430. The bank sees prices averaging $20,900 in 2027 and $18,500 in 2028, so it expects the peak to come early and then ease.
Daniel Ghali, the bank's head of metals research, calls the market a "historic metals scramble". In his view, the story has shifted from rising demand to competition for a shrinking pool of available metal.
Why supply is getting scarce
The bank's case rests on where copper is sitting. China's strategic reserves hold about 2.05 million tonnes, or 43% of the world's above-ground stocks. US stockpiling, driven by tariffs, could reach 1.3 million tonnes by year-end.
"By year-end, stockpiling in the USA and China will have encumbered 71% of global inventories," Ghali wrote. He blamed "de-globalization and decades of underinvestment in supply". If that stockpiling continues, the copper available to everyone else could approach zero by the end of 2028. Restocking by buyers and disruptions at refineries are tightening the market further.
What it means for India
MCX copper prices in India follow the LME closely, so a global squeeze would flow straight into rupee prices. That would raise costs for Indian makers of wires, cables, air conditioners and electric vehicles, which rely heavily on copper.
Deutsche Bank also notes that today's prices are still not high enough to push many users to switch to aluminium. That suggests demand would hold up even as prices rise, which is what makes the bank's scenario so steep.
Our read
Outlook: bullish. If the US and China keep hoarding metal, available supply shrinks and prices would need to rise to ration it. This is one bank's scenario, though, and it depends on stockpiling continuing at today's pace.
What to watch
- US stockpiling and any decision on US copper tariffs, which drive how much metal gets locked up there.
- Changes in China's strategic copper reserves.
- LME inventory levels, as a direct check on whether available supply is shrinking.
For information only, not investment advice.
Copper price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-10-03.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-09-28: Deutsche Bank forecasts copper at $22,050 a tonne by the second quarter of 2027.
Supply Drivers
Deutsche Bank blames decades of underinvestment in new supply for leaving the market exposed to hoarding.
Inventory Drivers
China's strategic reserves hold about 2.05 million tonnes, and US stockpiling could reach 1.3 million tonnes by year-end.
Trade Tariffs
Tariff-driven US buying is pulling copper into American warehouses and away from other markets.
What could lift prices
- Stockpiles in the US and China could tie up 71% of global inventories by year-end.
- Current prices are not yet high enough to push many users to swap copper for aluminium.
What could weigh on prices
- A US tariff decision that ends the stockpiling incentive could release metal back into the market.
- Much higher prices could finally trigger switching to aluminium and cut demand.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| United States | High | Tariff-driven stockpiling there is one of the two main forces tightening supply. |
| China | High | Its strategic reserves hold about 43% of the world's above-ground copper stocks. |
| India | Medium | MCX copper tracks the LME, so Indian manufacturers would pay more. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Copper Mining | Positive | Miners would earn far more per tonne if prices rise towards $22,050. |
| Wire and Cable Manufacturing | Negative | Copper is their main raw material, so a squeeze would raise costs sharply. |
Who gains, who loses
- Copper miners: A rise of more than 50% would lift revenue on every tonne they sell.
- Manufacturers outside the US and China: They would compete for a shrinking pool of available copper.
Other ways this could play out
- If stockpiling slows, available supply would recover and prices could stay well below $22,050.
- If the US and China keep adding to reserves, spot shortages could arrive before the end of 2028.
Price risks
- The forecast depends on stockpiling continuing, which is a policy choice that can change quickly.
- A global economic slowdown could cut copper demand faster than stockpiles tighten supply.
Technical view
Price is mixed relative to its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, showing no clear trend alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
United States
China
India