European Union steel exports to the rest of the world fell 20% in the first half of 2026, steelmakers' association EUROFER says. Production remains near record lows, and EU steel demand is now forecast to grow just 0.1% this year.
At a glance
- EU steel exports fell 29% to the US, 24% to India, 21% to Turkey and 18% to China.
- EU crude steel output fell 2.9% to a record low of 125.8 million tonnes in 2025.
- EUROFER expects steel demand to grow 2.3% in 2027, still about 7 million tonnes below 2019 levels.
Background
EUROFER, the European Steel Association, represents steel producers in the European Union and publishes a quarterly economic and steel market outlook. Apparent steel consumption is its main demand measure: steel produced at home plus imports, minus exports. The EU is a net importer of steel, meaning it buys more steel from abroad than it sells.
What happened
EU steel exports to countries outside the bloc fell 20% in the first six months of 2026, EUROFER said in its outlook released on October 1. Shipments dropped across all major markets, led by the United States at 29% and India at 24%.
Production is weak as well. EU crude steel output fell 2.9% to a record low of 125.8 million tonnes in 2025 and slipped another 1% in the first five months of 2026. Mills ran at 67% of capacity, up from 65% in 2025 but still low by historical standards.
Why it happened
Energy costs are a big part of the problem. European gas prices have hovered around €50 per megawatt-hour and peaked near €80 in recent weeks, 132% higher than at the start of the year. Steelmaking uses a lot of energy, so higher gas prices make European mills less competitive abroad.
Demand at home is also soft. Steel consumption rose 1.5% in the first quarter, but EUROFER expects growth of just 0.1% for the full year. Car production, a major steel user, is forecast to fall another 0.9%.
What it means for India
India was one of the sharpest declines, with EU steel exports to the country down 24%. That leaves Indian buyers relying less on European steel at a time when India is expanding its own steelmaking capacity.
"The 20% fall in exports is an alarming signal of the pressure facing European steel," said Axel Eggert, EUROFER's director-general. He called the EU's new steel trade measure "an essential first step" and urged a wider industrial recovery.
Our read
Outlook: neutral. Weak European output slightly reduces demand for iron ore and coking coal, but Europe is a small part of global steelmaking. The report confirms an existing slump rather than starting a new one.
What to watch
- Whether European gas prices ease from their recent peak near €80 per megawatt-hour.
- How the EU's new steel trade measure affects imports and mill utilisation.
- EUROFER's next quarterly outlook for any revision to its 2027 demand forecast.
For information only, not investment advice.
Iron price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-10-16.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-10-01: EUROFER releases its Economic and Steel Market Outlook for 2026-2027.
Demand Drivers
EU steel consumption is forecast to grow just 0.1% in 2026, with car output falling 0.9%.
Supply Drivers
EU crude steel output hit a record low of 125.8 million tonnes in 2025.
Trade Tariffs
EUROFER calls the new EU steel trade measure an essential first step.
What could lift prices
- EUROFER expects EU steel demand to grow 2.3% in 2027.
- Construction and mechanical engineering are expected to support steel use.
What could weigh on prices
- Record-low EU output reduces European demand for iron ore and coking coal.
- High gas prices keep European mills uncompetitive in export markets.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| India | Low | EU steel exports to India fell 24% in the first half. |
| United States | Low | EU steel exports to the US fell 29%, the steepest drop. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Steel Manufacturing | Negative | European mills face falling exports, high energy costs and flat demand. |
| Automotive Manufacturing | Negative | EU car output is forecast to fall a further 0.9% in 2026. |
Who gains, who loses
- Steelmakers in India and other export markets: They face less competition from European steel.
- European steelmakers: Exports fell 20% while energy costs rose sharply.
Other ways this could play out
- If gas prices ease and trade measures cut imports, EU mills could raise utilisation in 2027.
- If energy costs stay high, EU output could fall further below its 2025 record low.
Price risks
- A sharper downturn in European car production would cut steel demand further.
- Higher energy prices could force more European mills to curb output.
Historical comparison
- 2025: EU crude steel output fell 2.9% to a record low of 125.8 million tonnes.
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
India
United States
China
Turkey