Gold rose about 3.4% on Wednesday, its biggest daily gain since August 19, as the dollar fell after Democrats won control of both houses of Congress. Spot gold climbed further to $4,134.83 an ounce on Thursday, its highest since October 22.
At a glance
- Silver gained 4.8% to $52.13 an ounce on Wednesday, after hitting an 11-month low earlier in the week.
- Traders still see an 83% chance of a Fed rate rise in December, according to CME's FedWatch tool.
- On MCX, gold futures rose about Rs 6,400 per 10 grams over two sessions, and silver about Rs 11,231 a kilogram.
Background
Gold is priced in dollars, so a weaker dollar makes it cheaper for buyers using other currencies. Gold pays no interest, so expectations of higher US interest rates usually weigh on it. The US non-farm payrolls report, due on Friday, is a key input for the Federal Reserve's rate decisions.
What happened
Spot gold rose about 3.4% on Wednesday, its biggest one-day gain since August 19, Reuters reported. During the session it touched $4,050.99 an ounce, its highest since October 29.
The rally continued on Thursday. Spot gold climbed 1.9% to $4,134.83 an ounce by 0316 GMT, its highest level since October 22, while silver rose 1.7% to $53.12.
Why gold rose
Democrats won control of both the Senate and the House in Tuesday's midterm elections, and the dollar fell. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, which lifted demand.
Hamad Hussain of Capital Economics said the result appears to have lifted gold by adding to investor worries about the US fiscal outlook. Oil prices also fell about 10% over two sessions, easing concern about further Fed rate rises, The Economic Times reported.
What it means for Indian buyers
On MCX, December gold futures rose to Rs 1,45,909 per 10 grams on Thursday morning, up about Rs 6,400 over two sessions. December silver futures reached Rs 1,90,829 a kilogram, up about Rs 11,231.
Further gains may be limited. Traders see an 83% chance of a December Fed rate rise, according to CME's FedWatch tool, and Hussain said a hawkish Fed limits the scope for gold to climb.
Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvi Finmart sees support for gold at $3,980-4,022 an ounce and resistance at $4,140-4,174.
Our read
Outlook: bullish. A weaker dollar after the midterms lifted gold, though high odds of a December Fed rate rise may cap gains.
What to watch
- US non-farm payrolls data on Friday.
- Progress on talks to end the US-Iran war, which affects oil prices and inflation expectations.
- The dollar and US Treasury yields after the Democratic win.
For information only, not investment advice.
Gold price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-11-05.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-11-03: Americans vote in the US midterm elections.
- 2026-11-04: Gold posts its biggest daily gain since August 19 as the dollar falls.
- 2026-11-06: The US non-farm payrolls report is due.
Interest Rates
Traders still see an 83% chance of a December Fed rate rise, which limits gold's upside.
Currency Impact
The dollar fell after the Democratic sweep, making gold cheaper for holders of other currencies.
Geopolitical Risks
A sharp fall in oil prices on hopes of ending the US-Iran war eased inflation worries.
What could lift prices
- The dollar fell after the Democratic win.
- Lower oil prices eased fears of more Fed rate rises.
What could weigh on prices
- Traders still see an 83% chance of a December rate rise.
- Capital Economics says a hawkish Fed limits further gains.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| United States | High | The midterm result and the Fed's rate path are driving gold this week. |
| India | Medium | MCX gold and silver futures rose sharply over two sessions. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Investment and Wealth Management | Positive | Gold and silver recovered part of their recent losses. |
Who gains, who loses
- Gold and silver investors: Prices recovered after silver hit an 11-month low earlier in the week.
- Holders of US dollars: The dollar fell to about a one-month low after the election.
Other ways this could play out
- If Friday's payrolls data are weak, rate-hike odds could fall and support gold.
- If the data are strong, hike odds could rise and gold could slip back toward $4,000.
Price risks
- A December Fed rate rise would raise the cost of holding gold.
- A rebound in oil prices could revive inflation worries.
Technical view
Price is mixed relative to its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, showing no clear trend alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
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