Gold fell nearly 1% to about $4,138 an ounce on Friday after briefly touching $4,227, as US Treasury yields rose despite a weak jobs report. Silver also slipped and ended the week down more than 6%.
At a glance
- The US added just 29,000 jobs in September, far short of the 90,000 economists expected.
- Traders now see a 77% chance the Fed holds rates on October 28 but 88% odds of a December hike.
- The 10-year US Treasury yield rose 4 basis points to 5.9%, making non-yielding gold less attractive.
Background
Gold pays no interest, so it tends to lose appeal when bond yields rise, because investors can earn more by holding bonds instead. Gold is priced in dollars, so a weaker dollar usually helps it. In 2026, rising US interest rates have weighed on the metal, and gold ended September down 6.5%.
What happened
Gold dropped nearly 1% on Friday, October 2, trading at about $4,138 an ounce after peaking at $4,227 earlier in the session. It could not hold above $4,200, a level traders have been watching closely, and it remains below its 100-day average of $4,279.
The move came after a soft US jobs report. Employers added 29,000 jobs in September, far below forecasts of 90,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%.
Why it happened
Weak jobs data would normally help gold by raising hopes of lower interest rates. This time, New York Fed President John Williams and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said they were in no rush to raise rates. Markets read that as a likely pause in October, followed by a hike in December.
Bond yields rose anyway. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 4 basis points to 5.9%. Higher yields make bonds more rewarding to hold, which pulls money away from gold because it pays nothing. The US dollar index slipped 0.14% to 101.89, but that small help was not enough to lift bullion.
What it means for India
Silver fared worse. It fell about 0.8% on Friday to around $60.50 an ounce and lost more than 6% over the week. FXStreet analysts see $60 as silver's next support and $4,100 as gold's.
Indian prices fell with the global market. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), December gold futures lost Rs 2,887, or 2%, over the holiday-shortened week to about Rs 1.5 lakh per 10 grams. Silver dropped Rs 8,819, or nearly 4%, to about Rs 2.25 lakh per kilogram. Traders will also watch the Reserve Bank of India's policy decision on Wednesday, where a 25-basis-point rate hike is expected.
Our read
Outlook: bearish. Rising Treasury yields and strong odds of a December rate hike are weighing on gold. A clear move back above $4,200 would ease that pressure.
What to watch
- Minutes of the Fed's last meeting, due next week, for clues on a December rate hike.
- Whether gold holds $4,100, which FXStreet analysts see as its first support.
- The Reserve Bank of India's policy decision on Wednesday, where analysts expect a 25-basis-point hike.
For information only, not investment advice.
Gold price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-10-24.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-10-01: Gold ends September down 6.5%, snapping a two-month winning streak.
- 2026-10-02: Weak US jobs data; gold falls nearly 1% after failing at $4,200.
Interest Rates
The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.9%, raising the cost of holding gold.
Central Banks
Fed officials signalled no rush, but markets price 88% odds of a December rate hike.
Currency Impact
The dollar index fell 0.14%, a small help that rising yields outweighed.
What could lift prices
- Weak hiring could eventually push the Fed to drop its December rate hike.
- A softer US dollar gives gold some support.
What could weigh on prices
- A 10-year Treasury yield of 5.9% makes interest-paying bonds more attractive than gold.
- Markets price an 88% chance of a Fed rate hike in December.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| United States | High | US jobs data, Fed policy and Treasury yields drove the move. |
| India | Medium | MCX gold fell 2% and silver nearly 4% over the week, with an RBI decision due Wednesday. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Jewellery | Positive | Lower gold prices make jewellery cheaper for buyers. |
| Gold Mining | Negative | A lower gold price reduces miners' revenue per ounce. |
Who gains, who loses
- Jewellery buyers: They can buy at lower prices than earlier in the week.
- Investors who bought near $4,200: Gold fell back below that level within the same session.
Other ways this could play out
- If next week's Fed minutes sound less hawkish, gold could retest $4,200.
- If gold breaks below $4,100, analysts see room to fall towards the July low of $3,996.
Price risks
- Softer US data that cuts December hike odds could lift gold quickly.
- A drop in Treasury yields would reduce the pressure on gold.
Historical comparison
- September 2026: Gold fell 6.5% over the month, ending a two-month winning streak.
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
United States
India