Gold rose about 2% on Monday, recovering from a one-year low hit on Friday after its worst monthly fall since 2008. Lower oil prices on Iran ceasefire talks eased inflation worries, though traders still expect a US rate rise in December.
At a glance
- Gold fell 3.5% on Friday to its lowest since October 2025, below $4,000 an ounce.
- Oil fell more than 3% after Iranian negotiators held a third day of talks with Qatari mediators.
- Traders see about a 75% chance of a December Fed rate hike, according to CME's FedWatch tool.
Background
Gold pays no interest, so expectations of higher interest rates weigh on it, while lower oil prices can ease inflation and rate worries. A sell-off in technology shares last week led some investors to sell gold to cover losses elsewhere, known as margin calls.
What happened
Spot gold rose 2.26% to $3,962.60 an ounce in US trading on Monday, Kitco reported, recovering from its sharp losses on Friday. Gold had fallen 3.5% on Friday to its lowest level since October 2025, Reuters reported.
October was gold's worst month since 2008, according to Kitco. Silver rose more strongly, gaining 3.77% to $50.99 an ounce.
Why prices bounced
Oil prices fell more than 3% after Iranian negotiators held a third straight day of talks with Qatari mediators in Doha, Reuters reported. Lower oil eases inflation fears, which reduces pressure for higher interest rates.
"We're just getting a bounce after the selloff, along with oil prices coming off to start the week," said Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com.
What it means
The rebound may not last. Three Fed officials argued on Friday for more rate rises, and traders still see about a 75% chance of a December hike. "Gold faces a difficult near-term environment in which technical selling and liquidity concerns are overshadowing its longer-term investment appeal," said Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank.
Indian buyers have been delaying purchases in the hope of lower prices, Reuters reported, ahead of Diwali on November 8.
Our read
Outlook: neutral. Lower oil supports a rebound, but strong expectations of a December Fed hike limit gold's upside.
What to watch
- The US midterm elections on November 3.
- Whether Iran talks lead to lower oil prices.
- Fed officials' comments before the December meeting.
For information only, not investment advice.
Gold price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-11-05.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-10-30: Gold falls 3.5% to its lowest since October 2025.
- 2026-11-02: Gold rebounds about 2% as oil prices fall.
- 2026-11-03: US midterm elections.
Interest Rates
Three Fed officials backed more rate rises, and traders see a 75% chance of a December hike.
Geopolitical Risks
Iran ceasefire talks in Doha pushed oil prices down more than 3%.
What could lift prices
- Lower oil prices ease inflation worries and pressure for rate rises.
- Buyers are returning after gold's worst month since 2008.
What could weigh on prices
- Three Fed officials argued for more interest rate rises.
- Indian buyers are delaying purchases in the hope of lower prices.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| United States | High | Fed rate expectations and the midterm elections are driving gold. |
| India | Medium | Buyers are delaying purchases ahead of Diwali. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Investment and Wealth Management | Neutral | Investors are weighing a rebound against expected rate rises. |
Who gains, who loses
- Gold investors: Prices recovered about 2% after a sharp sell-off.
- Buyers who waited for lower prices: Gold rose about 2% from Friday's low.
Other ways this could play out
- If Iran talks succeed and oil keeps falling, gold could extend its rebound.
- If US data strengthen the case for a December hike, gold could fall back below $3,900.
Price risks
- Another tech-share sell-off could force more gold sales.
- Hawkish Fed comments could reverse the rebound.
Technical view
Price is mixed relative to its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, showing no clear trend alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
United States
India