Gold extended gains for a third session to $4,424.28 an ounce as rate-hike fears eased, with silver up 0.9% to $66.40 ahead of Wednesday's Fed minutes.
At a glance
- Spot gold rose 0.2% to $4,424.28/oz for a third consecutive session of gains.
- Silver outpaced gold, up 0.9% to $66.40/oz, while platinum rose 0.2% and palladium fell 0.3%.
- A Reuters poll of economists points to the Fed holding rates steady through year-end, a more dovish read than futures-market pricing, which still assigns a meaningful chance of a hike by December.
- IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said gold is 'regaining its safe-haven status' as hawkish rhetoric from Iran helped it shrug off higher bond yields.
What happened
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $4,424.28 an ounce, its third straight session of gains, while December US gold futures added 0.2% to $4,480.90. Spot silver climbed 0.9% to $66.40 an ounce, platinum edged up 0.2% to $1,772.75, and palladium slipped 0.3% to $1,330.05. The moves came as investors positioned ahead of Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting minutes, with a Reuters poll of economists pointing to the Fed holding rates steady through the rest of the year following weaker-than-expected July jobs, inflation and retail-sales data.
The details
Three things converged to extend gold's winning streak into a third session. First, the run of soft US macro data — unexpected July job losses, cooler-than-expected consumer price inflation, and weaker retail sales — has pushed a Reuters poll of economists toward a consensus that the Federal Reserve holds rates steady for the rest of the year. That's a notably more dovish read than what futures markets have been pricing, where the odds of at least one hike before year-end have stayed meaningfully elevated even as September-specific hike odds fell. The gap between what economists expect and what traders are pricing is itself a source of two-way volatility heading into Wednesday's FOMC minutes, which markets will parse for which camp the Fed's own internal debate favors.
Second, gold picked up a genuine safe-haven bid alongside the rate story. IG market analyst Tony Sycamore pointed to hawkish rhetoric out of Iran as a factor letting gold 'brush off higher yields' — normally a headwind for a non-yielding asset like gold, since rising bond yields raise the opportunity cost of holding it. That gold rose anyway on a day with higher yields is itself informative: it suggests geopolitical risk demand is currently strong enough to offset the usual yield-driven drag.
Third, silver's 0.9% gain outpaced gold's 0.2% move, continuing silver's pattern this month of amplifying gold's direction rather than just following it — a dynamic that shows up in a compressing gold-silver ratio when it persists. Platinum and palladium moved in opposite directions, up 0.2% and down 0.3% respectively, underscoring that the platinum-group metals are currently trading more on their own industrial-demand and supply dynamics than on the same macro rate narrative driving gold and silver.
For India, where the national reference rate stood at ₹15,527.26 a gram for gold and ₹238.03 a gram for silver, both metals are tracking this same global setup — a market that's rallied into resistance on rate-cut hopes but hasn't yet received the confirming data point (Wednesday's Fed minutes, or the September 16 decision itself) to settle the argument either way.
Why it matters
The gap between the Reuters economist-poll consensus (steady rates through year-end) and futures-market pricing (still assigning real odds to a December hike) means Wednesday's Fed minutes carry more weight than a routine release — they're the next data point that could resolve which camp is closer to right. A hawkish minutes reading would likely hit gold and silver together given how correlated their recent moves have been; a dovish one could extend the current three-session streak.
Our read
Outlook: bullish. Gold and silver both rose for a third straight session on a Reuters poll pointing to steady Fed rates and a genuine safe-haven bid from Iran-linked geopolitical risk, though futures-market pricing still leaves room for a hawkish surprise at Wednesday's Fed minutes.
What to watch
- Wednesday's FOMC meeting minutes for signals on which camp — the dovish Reuters poll consensus or the more hawkish futures pricing — is closer to the Fed's actual internal view.
- The gold-silver ratio, given silver's recent tendency to outpace gold on up days.
- Any further escalation or de-escalation in Iran-linked geopolitical rhetoric, cited as a live driver of gold's safe-haven bid.
For information only, not investment advice.
Gold price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-10-12.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-08-16: Start of gold's current three-session winning streak (session one).
- 2026-08-17: Gold holds near $4,425, up 1.11%, as September-hold odds climb to 70% and the Dollar Index touches a June 5 low.
- 2026-08-18: Spot gold rises 0.2% to $4,424.28, its third straight session of gains; silver rises 0.9% to $66.40; a Reuters poll points to steady Fed rates through year-end.
Inflation
July consumer price inflation came in below expectations, one of three soft US data points (alongside job losses and weak retail sales) driving the shift toward pricing a steady Fed.
Interest Rates
A Reuters poll of economists points to the Fed holding rates steady through the rest of the year, following unexpected July job losses, below-expectation inflation, and weaker retail sales.
Central Banks
Wednesday's FOMC meeting minutes are the next scheduled catalyst investors are positioning ahead of.
Geopolitical Risks
Hawkish rhetoric from Iran helped gold hold a safe-haven bid even as bond yields rose, according to IG market analyst Tony Sycamore — normally a yield-driven headwind for gold.
What could lift prices
- A Reuters poll of economists points to the Fed holding rates steady through year-end.
- Gold held a safe-haven bid on hawkish Iran rhetoric even as bond yields rose — a sign of genuine geopolitical demand.
- Silver outpaced gold's gain, up 0.9% versus 0.2%, a pattern consistent with a compressing gold-silver ratio.
What could weigh on prices
- Futures-market pricing still assigns meaningful odds to a hike before year-end, a more hawkish read than the Reuters economist poll.
- Palladium fell 0.3% the same session, showing the platinum-group metals aren't uniformly following gold and silver's momentum.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| United States | High | US macro data and the Fed's rate path are the direct drivers of this session's moves across gold, silver, platinum and palladium. |
| India | Medium | India's national reference rates for gold and silver track the same global session-by-session moves. |
Who gains, who loses
- Gold and silver holders: Three consecutive sessions of gains, with silver's 0.9% move outpacing gold's 0.2%.
- Palladium holders: Palladium fell 0.3% the same session even as gold, silver and platinum all rose.
Other ways this could play out
- A dovish Wednesday Fed minutes reading, confirming the Reuters poll's steady-rates consensus, could extend gold and silver's current three-session streak.
- A hawkish minutes surprise would widen the gap between what's priced and what the Fed signals, likely triggering a sharper pullback given how much of the recent rally rests on rate-pause expectations.
Price risks
- A hawkish surprise in Wednesday's Fed minutes relative to the dovish Reuters poll consensus.
- A reversal in bond yields or Iran-linked geopolitical risk removing the safe-haven bid that offset higher yields this session.
Technical view
Price is mixed relative to its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, showing no clear trend alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
United States
India