Gold fell to a two-month low just above $4,100 an ounce on Tuesday, as the US dollar held near its highest level since April 2025 and long-term US bond yields stayed at 24-year highs. Fading bets on an October Fed rate hike limited the losses.
At a glance
- Spot gold was down 0.3% at $4,128.69 an ounce in early Asian trade on Tuesday.
- US 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields climbed to 24-year highs on Monday.
- Traders still price an 87% chance of a Fed rate hike in December, according to CME's FedWatch tool.
Background
Gold pays no interest, so it tends to lose appeal when bond yields rise and investors can earn more elsewhere. It is priced in dollars, so a stronger dollar makes it more expensive for buyers using other currencies. The US Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate in September for the first time in three years, to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%.
What happened
Gold slipped to a two-month low just above $4,100 an ounce early on Tuesday. Spot gold was down 0.3% at $4,128.69 by 0155 GMT. Silver fell 0.6% to $60.67, and platinum lost 0.7% to $1,710.08. Palladium eased 0.2% to $1,170.15.
In India, December gold futures on the MCX dipped ₹415 to ₹1,49,901 per 10 grams at the open, taking the two-day fall to about ₹1,500.
Why it happened
The dollar held near its highest level since April 2025, which it reached on Monday. Bond markets added to the pressure. Yields on 10-year and 30-year US Treasuries climbed to 24-year highs on Monday as the selloff in government debt continued. Higher yields raise the cost of holding gold, which pays nothing.
Fresh data kept inflation worries alive. A measure of prices paid by US services businesses rose to its highest in more than four years, suggesting inflation could stay elevated into 2027. Economists at Deutsche Bank said they still expect two more quarter-point Fed hikes over the next couple of quarters.
What comes next
Losses have been limited by fading bets on an October hike after last week's weak US jobs report. Markets still price an 87% chance of a hike by December, according to CME's FedWatch tool, so the outlook depends on what the Fed signals next.
Two events on Wednesday could set the direction: minutes of the Fed's last meeting, and the Reserve Bank of India's policy decision, where a 25-basis-point hike is expected. Indian buyers will feel both through domestic prices and the rupee.
Our read
Outlook: bearish. A strong dollar, 24-year-high bond yields and a likely December Fed hike are weighing on gold. Fading odds of an October hike are the main support.
What to watch
- The Fed's meeting minutes on Wednesday for signals on a December hike.
- The Reserve Bank of India's policy decision on Wednesday.
- Whether gold holds above $4,100 or breaks lower.
For information only, not investment advice.
Gold price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-10-24.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-10-05: US 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields climb to 24-year highs.
- 2026-10-06: Gold touches a two-month low just above $4,100 an ounce.
Inflation
US services input prices hit a four-year high, keeping pressure on the Fed.
Interest Rates
US 10- and 30-year yields at 24-year highs raise the cost of holding gold.
Currency Impact
The dollar is near its highest since April 2025, making gold dearer abroad.
What could lift prices
- Odds of an October Fed hike have faded after weak US jobs data.
- Gold is near a two-month low, which may draw dip buyers.
What could weigh on prices
- Long-term Treasury yields are at 24-year highs.
- Markets price an 87% chance of a December Fed rate hike.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| United States | High | US yields, the dollar and Fed expectations are driving gold lower. |
| India | Medium | MCX gold has fallen about ₹1,500 per 10 grams in two days. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Jewellery | Positive | Lower gold prices ease costs for jewellery buyers. |
| Gold Mining | Negative | A lower gold price cuts miners' revenue per ounce. |
Who gains, who loses
- Jewellery buyers: Domestic gold is about ₹1,500 per 10 grams cheaper than two days ago.
- Gold investors: Gold is at a two-month low with yields still rising.
Other ways this could play out
- If the Fed minutes sound less hawkish, gold could recover toward recent highs.
- If gold breaks below $4,100, the next move could take it lower still.
Price risks
- A drop in Treasury yields would ease pressure on gold quickly.
- Escalation in the Middle East could revive safe-haven buying.
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
United States
India