Hindalco's consolidated profit rose 59% from a year earlier to Rs 7,533 crore in the September quarter as aluminium and copper prices climbed. Managing director Satish Pai warned that coal costs will rise another 5% this quarter.
At a glance
- Revenue rose 39% to Rs 91,708 crore, and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation rose 42%.
- Pai expects aluminium to hold near current levels for two quarters, then sees $2,600-2,800 a tonne in fiscal 2028.
- The quarter included a Rs 284 crore exceptional recovery and a one-time gain in copper.
Background
Hindalco is an Aditya Birla Group company that makes aluminium and copper in India and owns the rolled-aluminium maker Novelis. Its upstream unit covers mining and smelting, where profit moves closely with London Metal Exchange prices. Downstream units turn metal into finished products. EBITDA is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, a common measure of operating profit.
What happened
Hindalco's consolidated profit rose 59% from a year earlier to Rs 7,533 crore in the September quarter, from Rs 4,741 crore, The Economic Times and Reuters reported. Profit attributable to owners was Rs 7,532 crore.
Revenue from operations rose 39% to Rs 91,708 crore. EBITDA rose 42% to Rs 13,757 crore.
The upstream aluminium unit earned $2,125 a tonne, up 40% from a year earlier, at a 52% margin.
Why profit rose
Metal prices did most of the work. Aluminium prices rose about 23% from a year earlier, though they fell 10% from the June quarter, Reuters reported. Spot copper rose about 44%, according to a Jefferies note.
Copper offset the softer aluminium quarter. Pai said "copper had a great quarter and balanced it out", ET reported.
Two items flatter the headline. Profit included a Rs 284 crore exceptional recovery, and the company said its copper margin included a one-time gain, NiftyTrader reported from the results presentation. Profit before exceptional items and tax rose 53.4% to Rs 10,310 crore, and consolidated EBITDA fell 8.2% from the June quarter.
What it means
Costs are the near-term risk. Coal rose 5% in the September quarter, and Pai expects another 5% this quarter before costs ease, Reuters reported.
Pai expects aluminium to stay near current levels for two quarters. He said prices could settle at $2,600-2,800 a tonne in fiscal 2028 if Middle East tensions ease, from about $3,071 now. For Indian aluminium users, that points to steady prices for now and possible relief later.
Our read
Outlook: neutral. Strong results reflect past price gains, while Hindalco itself expects aluminium to hold steady and then ease in fiscal 2028.
What to watch
- Coal costs in the December quarter.
- Aluminium prices against Pai's forecast for the next two quarters.
- Whether downstream demand picks up in the March quarter, as Pai expects.
For information only, not investment advice.
Aluminium price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-11-10.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-11-06: Hindalco reports September-quarter results.
Demand Drivers
Pai expects downstream and speciality aluminium demand to pick up in the March quarter.
Inflation
Coal costs rose 5% last quarter, and Hindalco expects another 5% rise this quarter.
Geopolitical Risks
Pai linked lower aluminium prices in fiscal 2028 to an easing of Middle East tensions.
What could lift prices
- Hindalco expects aluminium to hold near current levels for two more quarters.
- Middle East tensions continue to affect a region that supplies about 7-9% of global output.
What could weigh on prices
- Pai sees $2,600-2,800 a tonne in fiscal 2028 if tensions ease.
- Rapid smelter growth in Indonesia has weighed on prices, ET reported.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| India | High | Hindalco is one of India's largest aluminium and copper producers. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Aluminium Smelting & Refining | Positive | Higher prices lifted upstream margins to 52% at Hindalco. |
Who gains, who loses
- Hindalco shareholders: Profit rose 59% from a year earlier.
- Northern Indian aluminium smelters: Hindalco said coal supply to the sector was tight during the monsoon, which raises costs.
Other ways this could play out
- If Middle East tensions ease, aluminium could move towards $2,600-2,800 a tonne in fiscal 2028.
- If coal costs keep rising, Hindalco's margins could narrow even with steady aluminium prices.
Price risks
- Coal costs could rise more than the expected 5%.
- New smelters in Indonesia could add to global supply.
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
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