The International Copper Study Group expects the refined copper market to stay in surplus, with the gap widening from about 104,000 tonnes this year to 368,000 tonnes in 2027 as supply growth outpaces demand.
At a glance
- Refined copper output is forecast to grow 3.4% in 2027, faster than the 2.5% rise expected in usage.
- The group cut its 2026 mine growth forecast to 1.3% from 1.6%, citing Chile, China and Indonesia.
- China accounts for 59% of the world's refined copper use.
Background
The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) is an intergovernmental body of copper-producing and copper-using countries. Twice a year it forecasts the refined copper balance, meaning refined production minus usage. A surplus means more metal is expected to be made than used. The group measures Chinese demand from reported data only, so it can miss changes in unreported stocks.
What the forecast says
The ICSG met in Lisbon on October 13 and 14 and forecast a refined copper surplus of about 104,000 tonnes in 2026, slightly above the 96,000 tonnes it expected in April. For 2027, it sees the surplus widening to about 368,000 tonnes, in line with its April view. That follows an estimated surplus of 419,000 tonnes in 2025.
World refined production is forecast to rise only 0.4% this year, to about 28.7 million tonnes, before growing 3.4% in 2027. Refined usage is expected to grow 1.5% this year and 2.5% next year.
Why supply is expected to outpace demand
Mines are still struggling this year. The group cut its 2026 mine growth forecast to 1.3% from 1.6%, mainly because of lower Chilean, Chinese and Indonesian output. Production at Grasberg in Indonesia and Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo remains limited after incidents in 2025.
Next year looks different. The ICSG expects mine output to grow about 3.1% as new capacity ramps up and output in Chile, Zambia, Indonesia and Congo improves. New smelters and refineries in Indonesia, India and the European Union should add refined metal, and recycled output is forecast to grow 4.7%.
Demand is softer outside China. Usage growth for 2026 was trimmed because of weaker demand in the Middle East, North America and the EU. Chinese use is expected to rise 2.5% this year, while demand in the rest of the world stays flat.
What it means
The forecast sits awkwardly with a market that traders see as tight. London Metal Exchange copper hit a record $14,875 a ton on September 10, Reuters reported, as strikes in Chile and low inventories fuelled supply worries.
The ICSG itself cautions that actual balances have recently differed from its forecasts, and that the Middle East conflict could change both production and demand. Its next forecast is due in April 2027.
Our read
Outlook: bearish. A widening forecast surplus points to easier supply in 2027. Strikes in Chile and low exchange inventories are still supporting prices for now.
What to watch
- Labour talks at Chile's Escondida and Centinela mines, which affect near-term supply.
- Whether output at Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula recovers as the ICSG expects.
- The ICSG's next forecast at its April 2027 meeting in Lisbon.
For information only, not investment advice.
Copper price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-10-16.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-04-23: ICSG April forecast sees a 2026 surplus of about 96,000 tonnes.
- 2026-09-10: LME copper hits a record $14,875 a ton.
- 2026-10-14: ICSG raises its 2026 surplus forecast to about 104,000 tonnes and sees 368,000 tonnes in 2027.
Demand Drivers
Usage is forecast to grow 1.5% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, led by Asia.
Supply Drivers
Mine growth was cut to 1.3% for 2026, but new capacity should lift it to about 3.1% in 2027.
Refinery Output
New smelters in Indonesia, India and the EU should drive 3.4% refined output growth next year.
What could lift prices
- Strikes and accidents in Chile are tightening mine supply right now.
- The ICSG says its forecasts have recently missed actual outcomes, so the surplus may not appear.
What could weigh on prices
- Refined output is forecast to grow faster than usage in 2027.
- Demand outside China is expected to stay flat this year.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| China | High | It uses 59% of the world's refined copper and drives demand growth. |
| Chile | High | Lower Chilean mine output is a main reason for this year's weak supply growth. |
| India | Medium | New Indian smelting and refining capacity is part of the expected 2027 supply growth. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Copper Mining | Negative | A surplus outlook could weigh on prices miners receive. |
| Copper Smelting & Refining | Neutral | New capacity is coming even as concentrate supply stays tight. |
Who gains, who loses
- Copper buyers and fabricators: A larger surplus would ease supply and could temper prices.
- Copper miners: A surplus outlook could limit how high prices go.
Other ways this could play out
- If Chilean strikes drag on, the 2026 surplus could shrink or vanish.
- If new smelters ramp up on time, the 2027 surplus could prove larger than expected.
Price risks
- Supply disruptions in Chile could tighten the market despite the forecast.
- Unreported Chinese stock changes could make the real balance tighter than the ICSG's figure.
Technical view
Price is mixed relative to its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, showing no clear trend alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
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