India's EV batteries could generate 145,000 tonnes of waste by 2030; without more recycling capacity, the cobalt, lithium and nickel inside keeps leaving the country as raw black mass.
At a glance
- India's used lithium-ion battery volume could reach 145,000 tonnes by 2030, with annual waste hitting 50,000 tonnes by 2027.
- In one year after October 2022, India exported black mass containing about 350 tonnes of cobalt, 71.7 tonnes of lithium and 215 tonnes of nickel.
- The Battery Waste Management Rules 2022 set a 90% material recovery target for EV batteries by FY26-27.
- A proposed Rs 3,000 crore government scheme would offer a 15% capital subsidy for new lithium and nickel processing plants from April 1, 2026.
What happened
India's expanding electric vehicle fleet could leave the country with as much as 145,000 tonnes of used lithium-ion batteries needing recycling by 2030, with annual battery waste projected to reach 50,000 tonnes by 2027, even though formal recycling currently handles only a small share of that volume. The gap has a direct critical-minerals cost: in the year following October 2022, India exported black mass -- the shredded, unrefined material left after batteries are dismantled -- containing an estimated 350 tonnes of cobalt, 71.7 tonnes of lithium and 215 tonnes of nickel, sending metals that could have fed India's own battery manufacturers abroad for processing instead. India's Battery Waste Management Rules 2022 require producers to finance collection and recycling of the batteries they sell and set a 90% material recovery target for EV batteries by FY26-27, while the Ministry of Mines is preparing a separate Rs 3,000 crore incentive scheme offering a 15% capital subsidy for new domestic lithium and nickel processing plants built from April 1, 2026. Two Indian recyclers, Lohum Cleantech and Attero Recycling, are already scaling domestic capacity: Lohum, based in Greater Noida, holds roughly 70% market share and is expanding toward 50,000 tonnes per annum, while Attero is expanding from 4,000 to 19,500 tonnes per annum as part of a Rs 8,300 crore investment plan targeting 300,000 tonnes of lithium-ion recycling capacity.
The details
The story of India's EV battery waste is really two separate races happening at once, and right now the wrong one is winning. The first race is physical: India's EV fleet is young enough that most of its batteries haven't reached end-of-life yet, but the volume curve is steep -- from an annual 50,000 tonnes by 2027 to a cumulative 145,000 tonnes by 2030. The second race is industrial: whether domestic recycling capacity can scale fast enough to capture the cobalt, lithium and nickel inside those batteries before they leave the country as low-value, unrefined black mass.
The black mass export numbers make the stakes concrete. A single year's worth of exports after October 2022 sent out roughly 350 tonnes of cobalt, 71.7 tonnes of lithium and 215 tonnes of nickel -- metals India is simultaneously trying to secure through overseas mining deals in Argentina, Australia and Chile, while exporting the same metals out the back door in a less refined form because domestic processing capacity hasn't caught up with domestic collection. Every tonne of black mass shipped abroad for refining is a tonne of value-added processing India's own battery industry doesn't get to capture.
Policy is now trying to close that gap from two directions at once. The Battery Waste Management Rules 2022 push the collection side, making producers responsible for financing recycling and setting a 90% material recovery target for EV batteries by FY26-27 -- a genuinely demanding bar if enforcement keeps pace with the rule's ambition. The proposed Rs 3,000 crore incentive scheme, with its 15% capital subsidy for lithium and nickel processing plants built from April 2026, is aimed at the other side of the problem: making sure India has somewhere domestic for that recovered material to go. Lohum and Attero's expansion plans -- a combined push from roughly 24,000 tonnes per annum today toward well over 300,000 tonnes -- suggest private capital already sees the economics working, but the 2027 and 2030 waste projections will arrive whether or not that capacity is actually built out in time.
Why it matters
India is running two critical-minerals strategies in parallel that only make sense together: securing lithium blocks overseas in Argentina, Australia and Chile, while also trying to build a domestic recycling industry that recovers the same metals from batteries already inside the country. If the recycling side lags, India ends up needing more overseas lithium, cobalt and nickel than it otherwise would, simply because material it already owns keeps leaving as unrefined black mass instead of being processed at home. For a country with almost no primary lithium or cobalt reserves of its own, how well it recycles what it already has may matter as much as any mining deal it signs abroad.
Our read
Outlook: neutral. This is a structural, multi-year domestic policy and industrial-capacity story rather than a near-term price catalyst for cobalt, lithium or nickel; its effects would show up gradually in India's import dependence rather than in global spot prices.
What to watch
- Formal notification and rollout of the proposed Rs 3,000 crore lithium and nickel processing incentive scheme
- Enforcement data on the Battery Waste Management Rules' 90% EV battery recovery target as FY26-27 approaches
- Capacity expansion progress at Lohum Cleantech and Attero Recycling against their stated targets
For information only, not investment advice.
Cobalt price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-10-03.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2022-10-01: Start of the one-year period in which India exported black mass containing an estimated 350 tonnes of cobalt, 71.7 tonnes of lithium and 215 tonnes of nickel.
- 2026-04-01: Proposed start date for the Rs 3,000 crore lithium and nickel processing incentive scheme's 15% capital subsidy eligibility.
- 2027-01-01: Projected point by which India's annual used lithium-ion battery volume reaches 50,000 tonnes.
- 2030-01-01: Projected point by which India's cumulative used lithium-ion battery volume could reach 145,000 tonnes.
Demand Drivers
Battery-grade cobalt, lithium and nickel demand in India is set to rise as recycling capacity scales up specifically to recover these metals domestically, reducing reliance on imported refined material even as the country's EV fleet keeps growing.
Supply Drivers
India's domestic critical-minerals supply is currently leaking abroad as raw black mass -- about 350 tonnes of cobalt, 71.7 tonnes of lithium and 215 tonnes of nickel in one recent year alone -- rather than being processed domestically, though expanding recycler capacity from Lohum and Attero could reverse that flow over time.
Government Policies
The Battery Waste Management Rules 2022 set a 90% material recovery target for EV batteries by FY26-27 and require producers to finance collection and recycling, while a proposed Rs 3,000 crore scheme would add a 15% capital subsidy for new lithium and nickel processing plants built from April 1, 2026.
Refinery Output
India's two largest lithium-ion battery recyclers are both expanding: Lohum Cleantech, with roughly 70% domestic market share, is scaling from about 20,000 to 50,000 tonnes per annum, while Attero Recycling is expanding from 4,000 to 19,500 tonnes per annum as part of a Rs 8,300 crore plan targeting 300,000 tonnes of total lithium-ion recycling capacity.
What could lift prices
- Two major domestic recyclers are already investing heavily -- a combined Rs 8,300 crore-plus in expansion -- well ahead of the 2027 and 2030 waste volume projections.
- A proposed 15% capital subsidy for new lithium and nickel processing plants directly targets the domestic-processing gap this story identifies.
- A 90% EV battery material recovery target by FY26-27 gives recyclers a clear, near-term regulatory deadline to build toward.
What could weigh on prices
- Formal recycling currently captures only a small share of India's battery waste, and black mass exports show the gap is already costing the country recoverable critical minerals.
- Combined major-recycler capacity today, even after planned expansions, may still fall short of the 145,000-tonne cumulative waste volume projected by 2030.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| India | High | India's EV battery waste volumes are set to rise sharply while domestic recycling capacity still lags, risking continued loss of critical minerals through black mass exports. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Battery Recycling | Positive | Rising battery waste volumes and new government incentives create a clear growth runway for domestic recyclers like Lohum and Attero. |
| EV Manufacturing | Neutral | EV makers benefit from cheaper, more secure domestic battery materials only if recycling capacity scales fast enough to reduce reliance on imported refined metals. |
Who gains, who loses
- Lohum Cleantech and Attero Recycling: Both are positioned as the primary beneficiaries of rising battery waste volumes and new government processing incentives.
- Domestic battery and EV manufacturers: Stand to gain a more secure, potentially cheaper source of recycled cobalt, lithium and nickel if domestic recycling capacity scales as planned.
- Overseas black mass processors: Would lose a source of low-cost feedstock if India succeeds in building enough domestic recycling and refining capacity to keep black mass processing onshore.
Other ways this could play out
- If the Rs 3,000 crore incentive scheme and the FY26-27 recovery targets are enforced on schedule, India could meaningfully cut black mass exports and retain more cobalt, lithium and nickel domestically.
- If recycling capacity and enforcement both lag the waste-volume curve, India could remain a net exporter of unrefined battery material even as it imports refined lithium and cobalt for new batteries -- effectively paying twice for the same metals.
Price risks
- A widening gap between battery waste volumes and domestic recycling capacity could keep India dependent on imported refined cobalt, lithium and nickel for longer than planned
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
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