India's gold demand fell 29% from a year earlier to 162.5 tonnes in the July-September quarter, the World Gold Council said, as high prices curbed jewellery and investment buying. It cut its 2026 India forecast to 625-675 tonnes.
At a glance
- Unofficial gold imports rose to about 50 tonnes in the quarter from 3 tonnes a year earlier, after import duty rose to 15%.
- Official net imports fell 46% to 114.1 tonnes, while recycling fell 12% to 19.2 tonnes.
- Demand rose 3% in value to Rs 2,41,900 crore because the average rupee price was 46% higher than a year earlier.
Background
The World Gold Council's India figures cover jewellery, bars and coins, and ETFs, and its quoted prices exclude import duty and GST. Unofficial imports are gold brought in outside official channels, including smuggling and small amounts carried by individuals, which bypass import duty. The consultancy Metals Focus compiles the data. India relies heavily on imports for its gold because domestic production is limited.
What happened
India's gold demand fell 29% year on year to 162.5 tonnes in the July-September quarter, from 229.8 tonnes a year earlier. The World Gold Council (WGC) gave the figures in its Gold Demand Trends report on Tuesday.
Jewellery demand fell 20% to 99.9 tonnes, and bar and coin demand fell 40% to 55 tonnes. Demand for gold ETFs halved to 5.3 tonnes. The Reserve Bank of India bought no gold in the quarter, against 0.2 tonnes a year earlier.
Why demand fell
The average gold price in the quarter was $4,262 an ounce, or Rs 1,48,891 per 10 grams before duty and GST, against Rs 1,02,287 a year earlier. Sachin Jain, the WGC's regional CEO for India, said consumers were making more considered purchases and using exchange programmes to cope with higher prices.
The import duty, raised to 15% earlier this year, also changed where gold came from. Official net imports fell 46% to 114.1 tonnes. About 50 tonnes came in through unofficial channels, against 3 tonnes a year earlier, the WGC said, citing Metals Focus.
Industry sources expect another 50 tonnes of unofficial inflows in the December quarter, The Financial Express reported. That could take the 2026 total above 100 tonnes.
What it means
The WGC cut its 2026 forecast for Indian demand to 625-675 tonnes from 650-750 tonnes. Jain told Reuters that demand of around 650 tonnes would be the lowest since 2020, when the pandemic forced jewellery shops to close.
He expects Dhanteras, Diwali and the wedding season to lift buying in the December quarter. But the WGC said high prices and a weak rural economy after a poor monsoon are likely to cap demand. More than half of India's gold demand comes from rural areas, Reuters reported.
Our read
Outlook: bearish. Weaker demand from the world's second-largest gold consumer removes some support, though festive buying may help in the December quarter.
What to watch
- Dhanteras and Diwali sales, the first test of whether the recent price fall revives buying.
- Monthly official import data, which show how much gold moves through legal channels.
- Jewellers' buying, which India's largest precious metal refiner says is cautious.
For information only, not investment advice.
Gold price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-11-05.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-11-03: The World Gold Council publishes its third-quarter report, including India data.
Demand Drivers
High prices cut jewellery volumes by 20% and bar and coin demand by 40%.
Trade Tariffs
A 15% import duty cut official imports by 46% and pushed unofficial inflows to about 50 tonnes.
What could lift prices
- The WGC expects festive and wedding buying to lift demand in the December quarter.
- Gold ETF inflows reached a seven-month high in September, Jain said.
What could weigh on prices
- Indian demand is heading for its lowest level since 2020.
- A weak monsoon could limit rural jewellery buying.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| India | High | Indian gold demand fell 29% and the WGC cut its full-year forecast. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Jewellery | Negative | Jewellery volumes fell 20% to 99.9 tonnes. |
| Investment and Wealth Management | Negative | Bar and coin demand fell 40% and ETF demand halved. |
| Bullion Trading | Negative | Official net imports fell 46% to 114.1 tonnes. |
Who gains, who loses
- Informal gold traders: A 15% duty makes unofficial imports more profitable, and those inflows rose to about 50 tonnes.
- Indian jewellers: Jewellery volumes fell 20% in the quarter.
- The Indian government: Gold brought in unofficially bypasses import duty.
Other ways this could play out
- If festive buying is strong, December-quarter demand could recover, as the WGC expects.
- If prices keep falling, jewellers may keep delaying purchases in the hope of lower rates.
Price risks
- Weaker Indian buying removes a source of physical demand for gold.
- A weaker rupee keeps local gold prices high even when global prices ease.
Technical view
Price is mixed relative to its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, showing no clear trend alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
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