Switzerland's share of India's gold imports has fallen to 21.9% from 42.4% five years ago, while the UAE's share has risen. Lower import duties on gold from the UAE, and on semi-refined gold for Indian refiners, are changing where India buys its gold.
At a glance
- The UAE's share of India's bullion imports rose to 16.5% in fiscal 2026 from 10.8%, Crisil Intelligence says.
- Gold from the UAE under a trade-deal quota pays 14% duty, against the standard 15%.
- Trade think tank GTRI warns that much of this gold may only pass through Dubai to get the lower duty.
Background
India is the world's second-largest gold consumer after China and imports an estimated 700-900 tonnes a year. It buys gold either as refined bars or as doré, a semi-refined mix of gold and other metals that Indian refineries process into pure gold. Small differences in import duty can decide which route importers choose.
What is changing
Switzerland's share of India's bullion imports fell to 21.9% in fiscal 2026 from 42.4% five years earlier, Sehul Bhatt of Crisil Intelligence told ET Online. Over the same period the UAE's share rose to 16.5% from 10.8%. Gold imports from the UAE jumped 175.2% from a year earlier to $649.4 million in June 2026.
Growing domestic refining has also lifted doré imports from countries such as Ghana, Chile and Peru, Bhatt said, spreading India's supply over more sources.
Why importers are switching
Duty differences drive the shift. India raised its standard import duty on gold to 15% from 6% on May 13, 2026. Doré pays 14.35%, giving Indian refiners a 0.65-point advantage, and gold from the UAE under the India-UAE trade agreement's quota pays 14%.
That quota of 120 tonnes a year will rise to 200 tonnes from 2027, covering nearly 25% of India's gold imports, according to the Global Trade Research Institute (GTRI). Together these changes have diversified India's sources, with Switzerland losing share, said Debajit Saha, lead metals analyst at the London Stock Exchange Group.
What it means for India
Not everyone welcomes the change. GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava said the UAE neither mines gold nor does major processing, so much of the trade appears to be gold routed through Dubai to get lower Indian duties. GTRI wants tighter rules of origin and wants gold, silver and platinum left out of future trade deals to protect India's trade balance and foreign exchange reserves.
Our read
Outlook: neutral. The shift changes where India buys gold, not how much it buys.
What to watch
- The rise in the UAE quota to 200 tonnes from 2027.
- Any government move to tighten rules of origin on gold imported under trade deals.
- Doré imports as India's refining capacity keeps growing.
For information only, not investment advice.
Gold price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-11-01.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-05-13: India raises its standard import duty on gold to 15% from 6%.
Government Policies
The India-UAE trade quota rises to 200 tonnes from 2027, nearly a quarter of India's imports.
Trade Tariffs
A 1-point duty break on UAE quota gold and 0.65 points on doré are redirecting India's imports.
What could lift prices
- India remains the world's second-largest gold consumer.
- Lower-duty import routes slightly reduce the cost of gold reaching Indian buyers.
What could weigh on prices
- The 15% standard duty, raised from 6% in May, makes imported gold costlier for Indians.
- Tighter rules of origin, if adopted, could raise costs on some imports.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| India | Medium | Its gold supply is shifting towards the UAE and domestic refining. |
| Switzerland | Medium | Its share of India's gold imports has nearly halved in five years. |
| United Arab Emirates | Medium | Its share rose to 16.5% thanks to a lower-duty trade quota. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Bullion Trading | Neutral | Trade is moving from Swiss refiners to UAE suppliers and Indian refiners. |
| Jewellery | Positive | Lower-duty routes can trim raw-material costs for jewellers. |
Who gains, who loses
- Indian gold refiners: Doré pays 0.65 points less duty than finished bullion.
- Swiss gold refiners: Their share of India's imports fell to 21.9% from 42.4% in five years.
Other ways this could play out
- If India tightens rules of origin, imports through the UAE could fall back.
- If the UAE quota rises to 200 tonnes as planned, its share could keep growing.
Price risks
- Global gold prices depend on interest rates and central banks, not trade routes.
- A change in India's import duty would matter more for local prices.
Historical comparison
- Five years before fiscal 2026: Switzerland supplied 42.4% of India's bullion imports, against 21.9% in fiscal 2026.
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
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