India's iron ore and pellet exports fell 67.2% from August to 0.70 million tonnes in September, the lowest monthly volume in nearly four years, according to BigMint. Shipments to China plunged 88.3% as Chinese steel mills cut back.
At a glance
- Shipments to China fell to 0.19 million tonnes from 1.63 million tonnes in August.
- Malaysia was the largest destination in September, at 0.22 million tonnes.
- Pellets made up 0.55 million tonnes of exports, and fines and lumps 0.15 million tonnes.
Background
India exports iron ore mainly to China, the world's biggest steel producer. When Chinese mills cut output or margins shrink, their demand for imported ore falls. Indian exports are also affected by domestic prices and output, since local steelmakers compete for the same ore.
What happened
India's iron ore and pellet exports fell 67.2% month on month to 0.70 million tonnes in September, BigMint said in its morning brief on October 13. It was the lowest monthly volume in nearly four years. The last comparable low was in November 2022, when exports fell to about 0.3 million tonnes after an export duty was imposed.
Shipments to China plunged 88.3%, to 0.19 million tonnes from 1.63 million tonnes in August, accounting for most of the decline. Malaysia became the largest destination at 0.22 million tonnes.
Why exports fell
Weaker Chinese buying, lower Indian iron ore production and firm domestic prices all cut export volumes, BigMint said. In China, softer steel mill margins and more blast furnace maintenance reduced demand.
Iron ore prices fell below $100 a tonne towards the end of September amid renewed calls for Chinese steel production cuts and weak margins at Chinese steelworks.
What it means
Lower exports leave more ore at home for Indian steelmakers, whose demand is growing fast. But it also shows how dependent Indian exporters remain on Chinese demand.
Our read
Outlook: bearish. Weak Chinese buying signals soft demand for seaborne iron ore.
What to watch
- October export data and Chinese buying after the holidays.
- Chinese steel production cuts and blast furnace maintenance.
- Indian iron ore output and domestic prices.
For information only, not investment advice.
Iron price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-10-16.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2022-11: Indian iron ore exports fall to about 0.3 million tonnes after an export duty is imposed.
- 2026-08: Exports to China reach 1.63 million tonnes.
- 2026-09: Total exports fall to 0.70 million tonnes.
Demand Drivers
Weak Chinese steel margins and blast furnace maintenance cut demand for imported ore.
Trade Tariffs
Firm domestic prices made exporting less attractive for Indian producers.
What could lift prices
- More ore stays in India for its fast-growing steel industry.
What could weigh on prices
- Chinese demand for Indian ore has dropped sharply.
- Iron ore prices fell below $100 a tonne in late September.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| India | Medium | Its iron ore exports fell to a near four-year low. |
| China | Medium | Its imports of Indian ore plunged 88.3%. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore Mining | Negative | Export volumes fell sharply. |
| Steel | Positive | More domestic ore may be available to Indian mills. |
Who gains, who loses
- Indian iron ore exporters: Their shipments fell 67.2% in a month.
Other ways this could play out
- If Chinese mills restock after maintenance, exports could recover.
- If China cuts steel output further, exports may stay low.
Price risks
- Iron ore prices depend heavily on Chinese steel policy.
- Domestic prices and output also shape exports.
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
India
China