Synergia Foundation, a Bengaluru-based think tank, says India's critical minerals strategy must shift from mining toward processing, refining and recycling to convert mineral deposits into real supply security.
At a glance
- Synergia Foundation, a Bengaluru-based strategic affairs think tank, says India's critical minerals strategy must move beyond mining into processing, refining and recycling.
- Lt Gen G A V Reddy (Retd), the foundation's Chief Strategic Officer, said "a mineral in the ground is not security until it enters the supply chain."
- Tobby Simon, the foundation's founder and president, said India's objective "should not be complete self-sufficiency" but "strategic resilience."
- The assessment names ten minerals as strategically critical: lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, copper, rare earth elements, gallium, germanium, vanadium and tungsten.
What happened
Synergia Foundation, a Bengaluru-based strategic affairs think tank, said on September 8, 2026 that India's critical minerals ambitions will fall short unless the country builds real processing, refining and recycling capacity rather than stopping at extraction. "India's critical minerals challenge is not simply about what lies beneath the ground. It is about whether we can convert mineral potential into reliable strategic supply," said Lt Gen G A V Reddy (Retd), the foundation's Chief Strategic Officer and a former Deputy Chief of the Integrated Defence Staff. "The real advantage lies in processing, refining, recycling, technology and downstream manufacturing," he said. "A mineral in the ground is not security until it enters the supply chain." Tobby Simon, the foundation's founder and president, framed the stakes in broader terms: "India's next phase of growth will depend on securing the materials that sit at the foundation of our energy, technology and defence ambitions. The objective should not be complete self-sufficiency. It should be strategic resilience." The assessment names ten minerals as central to the challenge: lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, copper, rare earth elements, gallium, germanium, vanadium and tungsten.
The details
India has spent the past two years scaling up its ambitions on the mining side of critical minerals: a national mission with a seven-year budget, new exploration blocks up for auction from Chhattisgarh to Gujarat, and a wave of state-level pushes to identify domestic deposits. Synergia Foundation's assessment argues that none of it solves the actual problem, because the chokepoint in the global critical minerals trade sits downstream, not upstream, in processing and refining, and that stage is where China holds overwhelming control.
The scale of that control is the fact the report leans on hardest. The International Energy Agency has found that China refines 19 of the 20 strategic minerals it tracks, with an average refining share across them of roughly 70%. That statistic exposes the gap in a mining-first strategy: a country can extract its own lithium, cobalt or rare earth ore domestically and still end up shipping it to China-controlled refiners to turn it into usable material, which defeats the point of calling the mineral a matter of national security in the first place.
Lt Gen Reddy's framing draws the distinction directly. "The real advantage lies in processing, refining, recycling, technology and downstream manufacturing," he said, arguing that raw deposits only become strategic value once they move through that chain. Tobby Simon's comments push the goal further from self-sufficiency toward resilience -- not eliminating imports altogether, but making sure India is never dependent on a single country or a single supply route for materials that feed its energy, defense and technology industries.
That framing lines up with the diversification already underway elsewhere: the Quad's $20 billion critical minerals initiative with the United States, Japan and Australia, and separate talks India has opened with Russia on lithium and rare earth cooperation. Synergia's recommendations sit downstream of all of that activity -- processing parks, refining and separation facilities, recycling infrastructure, and testing and certification capabilities -- the physical plant that would let India actually use whatever ore it mines or imports, rather than exporting the ore and re-importing the processed material.
What the report does not change is the scale of the gap it describes. Synergia's recommendations are a think tank's prescription, not a funded government commitment; the National Critical Mineral Mission's ₹34,300 crore outlay already covers exploration, mining, processing, recovery and recycling on paper, but China's roughly 70% average refining share took decades to build, and India's own processing capacity for most of the ten named minerals remains minimal by comparison. Closing that gap is a multi-year infrastructure and technology undertaking, not a single budget line.
Why it matters
For Indian manufacturers of EV batteries, wind turbine magnets, defense electronics and semiconductors, this is not an abstract policy debate. If India continues mining minerals like lithium and rare earths without building comparable refining capacity at home, domestic manufacturers can still end up buying processed material from Chinese-controlled supply chains regardless of where the raw ore came from -- the exact import dependency the National Critical Mineral Mission was created to reduce.
Our read
Outlook: neutral. This is a think tank's policy recommendation and assessment, not a supply or demand event -- it carries no near-term price impact for any tracked metal. Its significance is structural and long-term, in how it could eventually shape India's domestic refining capacity relative to China's.
What to watch
- Implementation progress and funding disbursement under India's National Critical Mineral Mission through FY2030-31
- Any government announcement of new processing parks, refining or recycling facilities for critical minerals
- Progress on India's parallel international mineral partnerships, including the Quad's $20 billion initiative and the emerging India-Russia talks
- Future IEA tracking of China's refining share for any sign of it narrowing
For information only, not investment advice.
Neodymium price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-10-03.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2025-01-29: India's Union Cabinet approves the National Critical Mineral Mission with a ₹34,300 crore outlay over seven years.
- 2026-09-08: Synergia Foundation publishes its assessment calling for India to build critical minerals processing, refining and recycling capacity.
Demand Drivers
Synergia links India's mineral security directly to demand from electric vehicles, battery manufacturing, semiconductors, renewable energy and defense manufacturing -- all sectors it says depend on a functioning downstream supply chain, not just access to raw ore.
Supply Drivers
The report frames India's current mineral supply as extraction-heavy and processing-light, arguing that raw deposits like the ten named minerals only become a real strategic asset once refining, recycling and downstream manufacturing capacity exists to use them domestically.
Government Policies
India's Union Cabinet approved the National Critical Mineral Mission on January 29, 2025, with a ₹34,300 crore outlay over seven years through FY2030-31, covering exploration, mining, beneficiation, processing, recovery, overseas assets, recycling and research -- the policy framework Synergia's recommendations would sit within.
Geopolitical Risks
China's dominance of global mineral refining, an average 70% share across 19 of 20 minerals the IEA tracks, gives it outsized leverage over supply chains for countries that mine minerals domestically but lack processing capacity of their own -- the core risk Synergia's report is built around.
Refinery Output
India's domestic refining and processing capacity for the ten minerals named in the report -- lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, copper, rare earths, gallium, germanium, vanadium and tungsten -- remains limited relative to China's roughly 70% average share of global refining capacity across most tracked minerals.
What could lift prices
- India already has real financial commitment behind the push: the National Critical Mineral Mission's ₹34,300 crore outlay approved through FY2030-31.
- Multiple diversification tracks are moving in parallel -- the Quad's $20 billion initiative, emerging India-Russia rare earth talks, and now this domestic processing push -- suggesting sustained policy attention rather than a one-off announcement.
- Synergia's recommendations are concrete and specific -- processing parks, refining and separation facilities, recycling infrastructure, testing and certification capabilities -- rather than vague aspiration.
What could weigh on prices
- China's dominance is structural and deep -- an average 70% refining share across 19 of 20 IEA-tracked minerals took decades to build, and India's processing capacity today is minimal by comparison.
- The report is a think tank recommendation, not a binding government commitment with funded processing infrastructure already attached to it.
- Building refining, separation and recycling capacity typically requires years of capital investment and specialized technical expertise India does not yet have at scale.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| India | High | The direct subject of the report's warning and the country whose critical minerals strategy Synergia says must pivot from mining toward processing, refining and recycling. |
| China | Medium | The dominant global refiner whose processing control is the structural problem Synergia's recommendations are designed to reduce India's exposure to. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Electric Vehicles | Neutral | Currently exposed to Chinese-controlled processing for lithium, cobalt and nickel regardless of where raw ore is mined; the report's recommendations would only change this if actually implemented. |
| Semiconductors | Neutral | Depends on gallium and germanium, both named in the report, and remains exposed to the same processing gap the report describes. |
| Defense | Neutral | Relies on rare earths, tungsten and vanadium for precision electronics and alloys, sectors the report explicitly ties to India's downstream manufacturing gap. |
Who gains, who loses
- Indian critical mineral processing and refining companies: The report's recommendations argue for direct policy attention toward exactly this segment of the value chain, which could translate into future incentives or infrastructure support.
- Downstream EV, battery, semiconductor, defense and renewable energy manufacturers: Diversified, domestic refining would reduce their exposure to Chinese-controlled supply disruptions, if the recommendations are actually implemented.
- Businesses relying solely on imported, already-processed critical minerals: Face growing policy pressure to shift toward domestically processed material as India's critical minerals strategy matures, per the report's recommendations.
Other ways this could play out
- India could lean more heavily on foreign technology-transfer partnerships, such as the Rosatom-linked processing research agreements reported separately, rather than building fully independent domestic refining capacity.
- Slower-than-planned execution of the National Critical Mineral Mission's processing components could leave India dependent on Chinese-controlled refining chains for years longer than policymakers currently hope.
Price risks
- If domestic processing capacity fails to materialize at the pace Synergia recommends, India could remain structurally dependent on Chinese-controlled refining regardless of how much raw ore it mines domestically.
- A slower buildout could leave Indian EV, battery, semiconductor and defense manufacturers exposed to the same supply disruptions the strategy is meant to prevent.
Historical comparison
- IEA Critical Minerals Outlook, 2026: The International Energy Agency found China and Indonesia together control roughly three-quarters of the world's new critical mineral refining capacity, underscoring the same processing gap Synergia Foundation highlights for India.
Technical view
Price is trading above both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bullish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
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