India's draft National Steel Policy Vision 2047 aims for 604 million tonnes of crude steel capacity, nearly three times today's level. Feeding it would need 772 million tonnes of iron ore a year, while each tonne of steel would emit about 40% less carbon.
At a glance
- Crude steel capacity would rise to 604 million tonnes by 2047, from about 220 million tonnes now.
- Iron ore demand is projected at 772 million tonnes by 2047, up from 299 million in 2025.
- Carbon intensity would fall from 2.54 to about 1.54 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of crude steel.
Background
India's steel demand has been growing faster than its own output: consumption rose 7.5% in the first half of FY27. The government sets long-term goals for the industry through a National Steel Policy. In late September, officials said a new draft targeting more than 600 million tonnes of capacity by 2047 would be released soon.
What the draft sets out
The draft National Steel Policy Vision 2047 targets crude steel capacity of 604 million tonnes, against about 220 million tonnes installed today, according to reports by The Economic Times and BigMint. It projects finished steel demand of 505 million tonnes by 2047, up from consumption of 164 million tonnes in FY26.
Per capita steel consumption would reach 302 kg. Exports, including steel shipped inside finished goods, would rise to 45 million tonnes from 12.5 million tonnes in FY26. The draft is expected to go out for public consultation.
What it would take
The raw material needs are huge. The draft projects iron ore demand of 772 million tonnes by 2047, up from 299 million tonnes in 2025. Coking coal demand would rise to 236 million tonnes from 72 million. Pulverised coal injection (PCI) coal, used to reduce coke use in blast furnaces, would rise to 48 million tonnes from 17 million.
Scrap would play a bigger role too. Its use would climb to 123 million tonnes from 36 million tonnes in FY26, about 21% of crude steel production.
What it means for India
The draft also targets cleaner steel. Average carbon intensity would fall from 2.54 tonnes of carbon dioxide per tonne of crude steel to about 1.54 tonnes, a cut of roughly 40%.
Hitting those numbers would need a far bigger raw-material chain than India has today, from iron ore mines to coking coal supply. For Indian steelmakers, the draft sets a growth path that runs for two decades.
Our read
Outlook: bullish. A long-term plan to nearly triple steel capacity points to strong future iron ore demand from India. The effect on prices depends on how much of the target is actually built.
What to watch
- The public consultation on the draft and any changes to its targets.
- Plans to expand domestic iron ore and coking coal supply to match the demand projections.
- Investment announcements by Indian steelmakers toward the 604 million-tonne goal.
For information only, not investment advice.
Iron price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-10-16.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-09-29: Officials say a draft steel policy targeting more than 600 Mt of capacity by 2047 will be released soon.
- 2026-10-10: Reports detail the draft National Steel Policy Vision 2047's 604 Mt target.
Demand Drivers
Iron ore demand would rise to 772 million tonnes by 2047 under the draft, more than 2.5 times 2025 levels.
Supply Drivers
Scrap use would rise to 123 million tonnes, easing some of the need for newly mined ore.
Government Policies
The draft National Steel Policy Vision 2047 targets 604 million tonnes of crude steel capacity.
What could lift prices
- Projected iron ore demand of 772 million tonnes would make India a far larger buyer.
- Coking coal demand would more than triple to 236 million tonnes.
What could weigh on prices
- The targets are long-term and depend on investment that is not yet committed.
- Higher scrap use and lower carbon intensity could temper demand for mined ore.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| India | High | The policy sets the path for its steel, iron ore and coking coal sectors to 2047. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Steel Manufacturing | Positive | A 604 million-tonne target signals long-term growth for Indian steelmakers. |
| Iron Ore Mining | Positive | Iron ore demand would rise to 772 million tonnes by 2047. |
| Coal Mining | Positive | Coking coal demand would more than triple to 236 million tonnes. |
Who gains, who loses
- Indian iron ore miners: Domestic ore demand would more than double by 2047.
- Steel scrap recyclers: Scrap use would rise to 123 million tonnes.
- Carbon-intensive steel plants: A 40% cut in carbon intensity would require costly upgrades or replacement.
Other ways this could play out
- If investment keeps pace, India could become the main source of new iron ore demand growth after China.
- If funding or raw material supply falls short, capacity may grow far more slowly than the 604 million-tonne target.
Price risks
- Iron ore prices today depend mainly on Chinese steel output, not on India's 2047 targets.
- The draft may change after public consultation.
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
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