Indian rebar prices rose above hot-rolled coil prices in the week to October 23, as long steel gained faster than flat steel, Nomura said. Hot-rolled coil stayed near a four-year high, while iron ore fell to its lowest level this year.
At a glance
- Rebar rose Rs 850 to Rs 64,950 a tonne, while hot-rolled coil slipped Rs 150 to Rs 63,700.
- India's hot-rolled coil spot margin was about Rs 39,095 a tonne in October.
- Imported coking coal fell $3 to $266 a tonne, easing mills' costs.
Background
Hot-rolled coil (HRC) is a flat steel product used in cars, pipes and machinery, while rebar is a long product used to reinforce concrete in buildings and infrastructure. A negative flat-long spread means rebar now costs more than hot-rolled coil. Iron ore and coking coal are the main raw materials for blast-furnace steel.
What happened
Indian rebar prices rose Rs 850 a tonne to Rs 64,950 in the week ended October 23, Nomura said in a report cited by Moneycontrol. That extended a recovery after prices eased from the April-June quarter. Hot-rolled coil fell Rs 150 to Rs 63,700, still near its highest level in four years.
As a result, the gap between flat and long steel prices turned negative, at minus Rs 1,250 a tonne.
Costs and margins
India's spot margin on hot-rolled coil was about Rs 39,095 a tonne in October, up about Rs 3,000 from the July-September quarter. Imported coking coal fell $3 to $266 a tonne, about 3% below its September average, after a sharp rally driven by supply disruptions and a fatal mine accident in China.
Iron ore for 62% Fe delivered to China stayed weak at $86 a tonne, its lowest level so far in 2026. In India, NMDC raised lump ore prices by Rs 150 to Rs 5,400 a tonne from September, while fines stayed at Rs 4,500.
Global steel prices
In China, export hot-rolled coil was unchanged at $505 a tonne, while domestic prices fell $5 to $484. In Europe, hot-rolled coil rose 5 euros to 750 euros a tonne. Nomura said global steel prices stayed firm, led by better momentum in Indian prices.
Our read
Outlook: bearish. Iron ore is at its 2026 low, and easing coking coal costs show raw material prices softening even as Indian steel prices hold up.
What to watch
- Whether rebar stays above hot-rolled coil as construction demand picks up.
- Coking coal prices after their recent rally and easing.
- NMDC's next iron ore price revision.
For information only, not investment advice.
Iron price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-11-01.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-10-23: Week ends with Indian rebar above hot-rolled coil prices, according to Nomura.
Demand Drivers
Indian long steel prices are gaining faster than flat steel prices.
Supply Drivers
Iron ore at its 2026 low and easing coking coal are lowering steelmakers' input costs.
What could lift prices
- Indian steel prices are holding near multi-year highs.
- NMDC raised its lump iron ore price by Rs 150 a tonne.
What could weigh on prices
- Iron ore for China is at its lowest level of 2026 at $86 a tonne.
- Chinese domestic steel prices are slipping.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| India | Medium | Steel prices are firm and margins are strong as raw material costs ease. |
| China | Medium | Iron ore and domestic steel prices are weak. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Steel | Positive | Indian steelmakers enjoy firm prices and wider margins as input costs ease. |
| Construction | Negative | Builders pay more for rebar as its price rises. |
Who gains, who loses
- Indian steelmakers: Hot-rolled coil margins rose about Rs 3,000 a tonne from the previous quarter.
- Indian construction firms: Rebar prices rose Rs 850 a tonne in a week.
Other ways this could play out
- If construction demand stays strong, rebar could keep its lead over hot-rolled coil.
- If iron ore keeps falling, Indian steel margins could widen further.
Price risks
- A rebound in coking coal prices would raise steelmakers' costs.
- Cheap Chinese steel could pressure Indian prices.
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
India
China