India's iron and steel exports to the European Union fell 19.8% to 1.53 million tonnes in April-September, Commerce Ministry data show, after the EU tightened import quotas. Shipments to the Americas and Africa rose sharply as exporters found other markets.
At a glance
- September shipments to the EU halved from a year earlier to 197,433 tonnes.
- Export volumes to the Americas rose 262%, and to Africa 96%.
- The EU cut its duty-free steel import quota to 18.3 million tonnes from 33.8 million on July 1.
Background
India sells iron and steel to many markets, and the EU is one of its key overseas buyers. The EU limits duty-free steel imports with country quotas, and charges a tariff above them. Its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), a charge on the carbon emitted making imports such as steel, entered its definitive phase in January.
What happened
India's iron and steel exports to the EU fell 19.8% to 1.53 million tonnes in April-September from 1.91 million tonnes a year earlier, according to Moneycontrol's analysis of Commerce Ministry data. In value terms, exports fell 17% to $1.48 billion.
The drop was sharpest in September, when shipments halved to 197,433 tonnes. July and August were broadly stable.
Why exports fell
From July 1, the EU cut its annual duty-free steel import quota to 18.3 million tonnes from 33.8 million, and raised the tariff above the quota to 50% from 25%. India's own quota fell about 30% to 1.94 million tonnes, according to the London School of Economics' Grantham Research Institute.
The data do not show whether India's quotas were used up in September, so the fall cannot be blamed entirely on the rules. CBAM may also weigh on buyers, although the first certificate payments are not due until 2027.
Where exports went instead
Shipments to the Americas more than doubled in value to $1.42 billion, and volumes rose 262%. Exports to Africa rose 76.5% in value to $334.2 million, with volumes up 96%.
The shift suggests Indian steelmakers are finding buyers outside the EU as European trade barriers rise.
Our read
Outlook: neutral. Indian steel is being redirected to other markets rather than cut, so overall steel and iron ore demand is little changed.
What to watch
- India's monthly steel exports to the EU as quotas reset.
- EU CBAM costs as certificate payments approach in 2027.
- Whether demand in the Americas and Africa holds up.
For information only, not investment advice.
Iron price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-11-05.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-07-01: The EU's tighter steel import quota regime takes effect.
Government Policies
The EU's carbon border charge on steel imports entered its definitive phase in January.
Trade Tariffs
The EU cut its duty-free steel quota to 18.3 million tonnes and raised the over-quota tariff to 50%.
What could lift prices
- Strong demand in the Americas and Africa is absorbing Indian steel.
- Indian steelmakers are keeping exports moving despite EU barriers.
What could weigh on prices
- Tighter EU quotas and carbon charges limit a key market for Indian steel.
- September shipments to the EU halved.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| India | High | Its steel exports are shifting away from the EU towards the Americas and Africa. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Steel | Negative | Indian steelmakers face tighter access to the EU market. |
Who gains, who loses
- Steel buyers in the Americas and Africa: They are receiving far more Indian steel.
- Indian steel exporters to Europe: Their EU shipments fell 19.8% in April-September.
Other ways this could play out
- If India's quota resets help, EU shipments could recover in the next quarter.
- If CBAM costs rise, more Indian steel could move to other markets.
Price risks
- Other regions could also raise trade barriers on steel.
- CBAM costs could hit coal-based Indian steelmakers harder.
Technical view
Price is mixed relative to its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, showing no clear trend alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
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